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MercadoLibre Q3 Preview: Can Sales Remain Robust?

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We continue to navigate through earnings season, with a vast majority of companies unveiling quarterly results daily. We’ve already gotten results from the big banks and a majority of big tech, with the results primarily positive overall.

And soon, on November 1st, after the closing bell, MercadoLibre (MELI - Free Report) will reveal its quarterly results. The stock has garnered much attention in 2023, with shares up more than 40% and widely outperforming the general market year-to-date.

But how do expectations stack up heading into the release? We can use e-commerce results from Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) as a small guide. Let’s take a closer look.

Amazon

Amazon posted a sizable 47% EPS beat, with earnings improving notably from the year-ago period amid a more favorable operating environment. Quarterly revenue totaled $143.1 billion, modestly ahead of expectations and well above year-ago quarterly sales of $127.1 billion.

Amazon’s revenue growth has remained strong, as we can see below.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Regarding online sales, International Revenue climbed 16% to $32.1 billion, with North America sales climbing 11% year-over-year to $87.9 billion. In addition, the company’s International segment posted an operating loss of -$0.1 billion compared to a loss of -$2.5 billion in the same period last year.

As reflected by these results, demand has remained favorable for e-commerce, which has been underpinned by a strong consumer.

MercadoLibre

Analysts have shown positivity for the upcoming release, with the $5.85 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate moving 2.5% higher since mid-August and reflecting year-over-year growth of a sizable 130%. Revenue expectations are essentially unchanged during the same period, with the $3.6 billion estimate implying an improvement of 32% from the year-ago period.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company has regularly posted robust results throughout 2023, exceeding the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate by an average of 30% across its last four releases. MercadoLibre posted a sizable 25% EPS beat in its latest print and reported revenue nearly 5% ahead of the consensus estimate.

Like AMZN, MercadoLibre’s revenue growth has been strong over the recent years.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

A key metric to watch for MELI’s release is Total Payment Volume (TPV), which gives us a snapshot of how active shoppers have been on the platform. In its latest release, MELI’s TPV grew a remarkable 96% year-over-year to $42.1 billion, with continued business momentum leading the way.

For the quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Total Payment Volume stands at $43.7 billion, suggesting a growth rate of 35% from the year-ago period. The company has exceeded consensus TPV expectations in five of its last six releases, as shown below.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

We continue to wade through the Q3 earnings cycle, which has primarily been positive thus far.

And soon, we’ll hear from e-commerce titan MercadoLibre. Analysts have been optimistic regarding bottom line expectations, with both earnings and revenue forecasted to see sizable growth relative to the same period last year.

Heading into the release, MercadoLibre (MELI - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an Earnings ESP Score of 3.2%.


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