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The Q4 earnings season has gotten off to a good start, with earnings and revenue growth tracking above other recent periods and on track to reach the highest level in 8 quarters. Positive surprises, particularly on the earnings front, are a bit on the low side relative to historical periods at this stage. We will see if this trend continues this week as we enter the heart of the earnings season, with more than 300 companies coming out with quarterly results, including 105 S&P 500 members.
As of Friday, January 20th, we have seen Q4 results from 63 S&P 500 members that combined account for 19.2% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 63 index members are up +4.7% on +2.7% higher revenues, with 66.7% beating EPS estimates and 50.8% coming ahead of top-line expectations.
The table below provides the current Q4 scorecard
The charts below provide a comparison of the results thus far with what we have seen from this same group of 63 S&P 500 members in other recent periods.
As you can see, the Q4 growth pace is notably tracking above what we had seen from the same group of 63 index members in other recent periods. But positive surprises (right-hand chart above) are tracking a bit on the low side at this stage, particularly on the earnings side. The 66.7% proportion of Q4 companies beating EPS estimates compares to 81% in the preceding quarter, 75% as the 4-quarter average and 71.3% as the 12-quarter average. Positive revenue surprises are tracking below what we had seen from the same group of companies in Q3, but are roughly in-line with historical periods.
The chart below compares the proportion of companies reporting Q4 results that are beating both EPS and revenue estimates with what this same group of companies had reported in other recent periods.
Trump Bump for Banks
The sample of Q4 earnings reports is heavily weighted towards the Finance sector at this stage whose improved results are helping the aggregate growth picture as well. The growth picture looks a lot less impressive once looked at on an ex-Finance basis.
Total earnings for the roughly half of the Finance sector’s market cap in the S&P 500 index that have reported results are up +11.8% from the same period last year on +2.6% higher revenues, with +68.2% beating EPS estimates and +45.5% beating top-line estimates.
This is better growth performance than we have seen from the sector in other recent periods, as the comparison charts below show. Please note that positive surprises are as hard to come by in the Finance sector as they are elsewhere.
We didn’t really see the full impact of higher interest rates on the banks’ net interest margins in Q4 results. But higher interest rates, increased confidence and the resultant enhanced appetite for risks did juice the trading revenues for JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) and even Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) . This didn’t come as a surprise to the market, as estimates and stock prices had already run up quite a bit ahead of these earnings reports. It is reasonable to expect these bank stocks to remain in a holding pattern in the coming days till fundamentals changes in a meaningful way and/or progress on legislative expectations start showing up.
Key Reports for the Week of January 23rd
Monday – 1/23/2017: McDonalds (MCD) and Halliburton (HAL) are the notable for the four index members reporting results today. Estimates for Zacks Rank # 1 (Strong Buy) rated Halliburton have been going up lately, reflecting the company’s strong positioning in the North American oilfield region. The stock has literally been on a tear lately, up +88.9% in the past year vs. +44.2% gain for the Zacks Energy sector and +41.9% gain for peer Schlumberger (SLB) whose Q4 results failed to impress on Friday.
Tuesday – 1/24/2017: We have 21 S&P 500 members reporting results today, of which 12 report before the market’s open. Verizon (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) and 3M (MMM) are the notable reports, all reporting in the morning. China’s Alibaba (BABA) is also on deck to report results today.
Wednesday – 1/25/2017: Of the 31 index members reporting results today (16 in the morning), the notable reports are from Boeing (BA - Free Report) and AT&T (T - Free Report) . Boeing shares are up +11.8% since November 8th, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace sector (up +8.9%) on hopes of ramped up defense spending from the Trump administration.
Thursday – 1/26/2017: On a busy reporting day with 37 index members coming out with Q4 results (24 in the morning & 13 after the market’s close), we have Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC - Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) reporting results after the close. Other notable reports today include Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) and Ford (F - Free Report) in the morning and Starbucks (SBUX) after the close.
Estimates for Microsoft have gone up ahead of the earnings release and the stock has outperformed the broader Tech sector (up +21.5%) and Alphabet (up +13.4%) by gaining +23.4% over the past year. Starbucks has been a notable laggard over the past year, with the stock modestly in negative territory over that time period, though it has turned around a bit since early November.
Friday – 1/27/2017: Chevron (CVX - Free Report) and American Airlines (AAL) are the notable reports today, both in the morning.
Q4 Expectations As a Whole
For Q4 as a whole, total earnings for the S&P 500 companies are expected to be up +4.8% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues. This would follow the +3.8% growth in Q3 earnings on +2.3% higher revenues, the first instance of positive earnings growth for the index after five quarters of back-to-back declines. Comparisons for the Energy sector, a big driver of the earnings recession, turn positive in Q4, with the sector’s earnings growth turning positive for the first time after 8 quarters of declines.
The chart below shows the Q3 earnings growth contrasted with declines in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.
The table below shows the summary picture Q4 contrasted with what was actually achieved in the preceding quarter.
Note: Sheraz Mian heads the Zacks Equity Research department and is a well-regarded expert of aggregate earnings. He is frequently quoted in the print and electronic media and publishes the weekly Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview reports. If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, please click here>>>
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Here is a list of the 330 companies reporting this week, including 105 S&P 500 members.
Company
Ticker
Current Qtr
Year-Ago Qtr
Last EPS Surprise %
Report Day
Time
HALLIBURTON CO
HAL
0.02
0.31
114.29%
Monday
BTO
MCDONALDS CORP
MCD
1.41
1.28
9.46%
Monday
BTO
BANK OF HAWAII
BOH
1.02
0.99
3.03%
Monday
BTO
BANK OF MARIN
BMRC
0.81
0.81
44.30%
Monday
BTO
COMMNTY BK SYS
CBU
0.58
0.56
3.39%
Monday
BTO
ENTERPRISE FINL
EFSC
0.62
0.49
5.36%
Monday
BTO
PETMED EXPRESS
PETS
0.25
0.24
-7.69%
Monday
BTO
ZIONS BANCORP
ZION
0.52
0.43
14.00%
Monday
AMC
YAHOO! INC
YHOO
0.14
0.02
20.00%
Monday
AMC
J&J SNACK FOODS
JJSF
0.64
0.66
-9.84%
Monday
AMC
TRIUMPH BANCORP
TBK
0.39
0.19
6.67%
Monday
AMC
FIRST DEFIANCE
FDEF
0.75
0.71
-2.50%
Monday
AMC
MAJESCO
MJCO
N/A
-0.03
N/A
Monday
AMC
BROWN & BROWN
BRO
0.41
0.41
6.12%
Monday
AMC
MERCURY SYSTEMS
MRCY
0.1
0.14
240.00%
Monday
AMC
WOODWARD INC
WWD
0.5
0.56
6.45%
Monday
AMC
EQUITY LIFESTYL
ELS
0.8
0.74
0.00%
Monday
AMC
HOMESTREET INC
HMST
0.09
0.39
45.45%
Monday
AMC
RESMED INC
RMD
0.7
0.69
-1.59%
Monday
AMC
LG DISPLAY-ADR
LPL
0.39
-0.02
-12.00%
Monday
AMC
SILICON MOTION
SIMO
0.65
0.4
14.63%
Monday
AMC
SGS SA ADR SWIZ
SGSOY
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monday
N/A
LOCKHEED MARTIN
LMT
3.04
3.01
26.22%
Tuesday
BTO
FIFTH THIRD BK
FITB
0.43
0.41
58.54%
Tuesday
BTO
CORNING INC
GLW
0.44
0.34
10.53%
Tuesday
BTO
D R HORTON INC
DHI
0.47
0.42
-2.60%
Tuesday
BTO
VERIZON COMM
VZ
0.89
0.89
2.02%
Tuesday
BTO
JOHNSON & JOHNS
JNJ
1.56
1.44
1.82%
Tuesday
BTO
PROLOGIS INC
PLD
0.63
0.64
4.29%
Tuesday
BTO
TRAVELERS COS
TRV
2.89
2.9
1.27%
Tuesday
BTO
DU PONT (EI) DE
DD
0.42
0.27
61.90%
Tuesday
BTO
3M CO
MMM
1.87
1.8
0.47%
Tuesday
BTO
WATERS CORP
WAT
2.12
1.96
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
KIMBERLY CLARK
KMB
1.42
1.42
-1.30%
Tuesday
BTO
The Travelers Co
TRV
2.89
2.9
1.27%
Tuesday
BTO
AK STEEL HLDG
AKS
0.07
0.3
61.54%
Tuesday
BTO
ALLEGIANCE BCSH
ABTX
0.44
0.33
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
HANMI FINL CP
HAFC
0.42
0.46
-6.82%
Tuesday
BTO
PAC PREMIER BCP
PPBI
0.42
0.39
-21.43%
Tuesday
BTO
FIRST HAWAIIAN
FHB
0.39
N/A
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
OLD NATL BCP
ONB
0.23
0.25
27.27%
Tuesday
BTO
POPULAR INC
BPOP
0.86
0.95
1.11%
Tuesday
BTO
UNION BANKSHARS
UBSH
0.44
0.4
4.44%
Tuesday
BTO
POLARIS INDUS
PII
1.17
1.66
11.11%
Tuesday
BTO
ALLEGHENY TECH
ATI
-0.11
-0.56
-90.91%
Tuesday
BTO
JANUS CAP GRP
JNS
0.24
0.25
4.35%
Tuesday
BTO
ALIBABA GROUP
BABA
0.85
0.73
34.04%
Tuesday
BTO
EAGLE MATERIALS
EXP
1.15
0.92
-1.57%
Tuesday
BTO
AVX CORP
AVX
0.2
0.17
-6.25%
Tuesday
BTO
II-VI INCORP
IIVI
0.26
0.31
52.17%
Tuesday
BTO
SAP AG ADR
SAP
1.1
1.17
-13.92%
Tuesday
BTO
KONINKLIJKE PHL
PHG
N/A
-0.14
N/A
Tuesday
BTO
MARINEMAX INC
HZO
-0.03
0.04
-14.29%
Tuesday
BTO
NORD ANGLIA EDU
NORD
0.27
0.25
6.67%
Tuesday
BTO
FLAGSTAR BANCP
FBC
0.55
0.44
7.81%
Tuesday
BTO
SEAGATE TECH
STX
1.07
0.82
11.24%
Tuesday
AMC
DISCOVER FIN SV
DFS
1.38
1.14
5.41%
Tuesday
AMC
TEXAS INSTRS
TXN
0.81
0.71
9.30%
Tuesday
AMC
STRYKER CORP
SYK
1.76
1.56
1.46%
Tuesday
AMC
CAPITAL ONE FIN
COF
1.6
1.67
4.64%
Tuesday
AMC
INTUITIVE SURG
ISRG
5.26
5.18
23.91%
Tuesday
AMC
TOTAL SYS SVC
TSS
0.65
0.53
-1.49%
Tuesday
AMC
CA INC
CA
0.57
0.59
10.53%
Tuesday
AMC
NAVIENT CORP
NAVI
0.44
0.48
4.17%
Tuesday
AMC
HAWAIIAN HLDGS
HA
1.31
0.85
5.49%
Tuesday
AMC
STEEL DYNAMICS
STLD
0.43
0.09
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
HOPE BANCORP
HOPE
0.33
0.3
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
CDN NATL RY CO
CNI
0.92
0.88
4.35%
Tuesday
AMC
FIRST MIDWST BK
FMBI
0.33
0.29
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
LEGACY TX FINL
LTXB
0.56
0.35
13.73%
Tuesday
AMC
NATL COMMERCE
NCOM
0.4
0.28
10.26%
Tuesday
AMC
SOUTHWEST BC-OK
OKSB
0.28
0.23
-14.81%
Tuesday
AMC
WESBANCO INC
WSBC
0.58
0.6
5.26%
Tuesday
AMC
ALCOA CORP
AA
0.23
N/A
N/A
Tuesday
AMC
FRANKLIN FNL NW
FSB
0.58
0.41
-6.06%
Tuesday
AMC
TRUSTMARK CP
TRMK
0.42
0.43
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
CREE INC
CREE
0.08
0.18
100.00%
Tuesday
AMC
STERLING BANCP
STL
0.3
0.26
-6.90%
Tuesday
AMC
LOGITECH INTL
LOGI
0.36
0.38
87.50%
Tuesday
AMC
UTD COMM FIN CP
UCFC
0.11
0.09
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
HUNTINGTON BANC
HBAN
0.22
0.22
4.76%
Wednesday
BTO
FREEPT MC COP-B
FCX
0.32
-0.02
-31.58%
Wednesday
BTO
ILL TOOL WORKS
ITW
1.37
1.23
0.67%
Wednesday
BTO
PROGRESSIVE COR
PGR
0.51
0.54
9.09%
Wednesday
BTO
STATE ST CORP
STT
1.34
1.21
8.00%
Wednesday
BTO
TE CONNECT-LTD
TEL
1
0.84
6.72%
Wednesday
BTO
NORFOLK SOUTHRN
NSC
1.38
1.2
6.90%
Wednesday
BTO
ROCKWELL AUTOMT
ROK
1.45
1.49
2.01%
Wednesday
BTO
ABBOTT LABS
ABT
0.64
0.62
1.72%
Wednesday
BTO
BOEING CO
BA
2.34
1.6
33.97%
Wednesday
BTO
UTD TECHS CORP
UTX
1.56
1.53
4.76%
Wednesday
BTO
GRAINGER W W
GWW
2.36
2.49
1.32%
Wednesday
BTO
HESS CORP
HES
-1.09
-1.4
11.81%
Wednesday
BTO
TEXTRON INC
TXT
0.87
0.81
0.00%
Wednesday
BTO
AMPHENOL CORP-A
APH
0.72
0.63
7.35%
Wednesday
BTO
MCCORMICK & CO
MKC
1.27
1.18
8.42%
Wednesday
BTO
Rockwell Automation Inc.
ROK
1.45
1.49
2.01%
Wednesday
BTO
UMB FINL CORP
UMBF
0.85
0.6
12.99%
Wednesday
BTO
PROSPERITY BCSH
PB
0.98
1.01
0.00%
Wednesday
BTO
RPC INC
RES
-0.13
-0.18
14.29%
Wednesday
BTO
CULLEN FROST BK
CFR
1.24
0.9
6.90%
Wednesday
BTO
BANKUNITED INC
BKU
0.55
0.52
-11.32%
Wednesday
BTO
FIRST COMW FINL
FCF
0.17
0.14
5.56%
Wednesday
BTO
LAKELAND FINL
LKFN
0.52
0.49
3.92%
Wednesday
BTO
UTD CMNTY BK/GA
UCBI
0.39
0.33
2.63%
Wednesday
BTO
CENTRAL PAC FIN
CPF
0.37
0.34
-2.63%
Wednesday
BTO
MARKETAXESS HLD
MKTX
0.83
0.65
5.13%
Wednesday
BTO
COMMVAULT SYSTM
CVLT
0.02
0.1
66.67%
Wednesday
BTO
BOK FINL CORP
BOKF
0.9
0.89
1.80%
Wednesday
BTO
SHARPS COMPLIAN
SMED
0.03
0.04
-300.00%
Wednesday
BTO
MEREDITH CORP
MDP
1.21
0.8
4.17%
Wednesday
BTO
MARINE PRODUCTS
MPX
0.16
0.1
0.00%
Wednesday
BTO
ROLLINS INC
ROL
0.17
0.15
4.55%
Wednesday
BTO
UNIFI INC
UFI
0.34
0.37
41.67%
Wednesday
BTO
UNVL STAINLESS
USAP
0.05
-0.26
-333.33%
Wednesday
BTO
BANCO SANTAN SA
SAN
N/A
0.11
N/A
Wednesday
BTO
BRINKER INTL
EAT
0.78
0.78
-10.91%
Wednesday
BTO
SANTANDER CNSMR
SC
0.35
0.19
7.27%
Wednesday
BTO
BRIGGS & STRATT
BGG
0.29
0.34
12.82%
Wednesday
BTO
NOVARTIS AG-ADR
NVS
1.08
1.11
4.24%
Wednesday
BTO
VALLEY NATL BCP
VLY
0.19
0.15
0.00%
Wednesday
BTO
NAVIOS MARITIME
NAP
0.31
0.44
-3.70%
Wednesday
BTO
VIRTUS INVESTMT
VRTS
1.86
1.37
8.61%
Wednesday
BTO
NEW YORK CMNTY
NYCB
0.25
0.31
-3.70%
Wednesday
BTO
CHUNGHWA TELECM
CHT
N/A
0.37
N/A
Wednesday
BTO
CROWN CASTLE
CCI
1.11
1.11
-3.54%
Wednesday
AMC
WESTERN DIGITAL
WDC
1.65
1.6
12.38%
Wednesday
AMC
LAM RESEARCH
LRCX
2.19
1.57
2.26%
Wednesday
AMC
UTD RENTALS INC
URI
2.3
2.19
5.31%
Wednesday
AMC
AT&T INC
T
0.66
0.63
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
XILINX INC
XLNX
0.49
0.49
12.96%
Wednesday
AMC
SL GREEN REALTY
SLG
1.43
1.62
7.95%
Wednesday
AMC
CITRIX SYS INC
CTXS
1.26
1.46
14.43%
Wednesday
AMC
QUALCOMM INC
QCOM
1.06
0.85
19.39%
Wednesday
AMC
VERTEX PHARM
VRTX
0.01
-0.02
-50.00%
Wednesday
AMC
MURPHY OIL
MUR
-0.21
-0.76
14.29%
Wednesday
AMC
F5 NETWORKS INC
FFIV
1.53
1.32
9.74%
Wednesday
AMC
VARIAN MEDICAL
VAR
1.05
0.99
2.22%
Wednesday
AMC
MCKESSON CORP
MCK
2.96
3.18
-3.61%
Wednesday
AMC
EBAY INC
EBAY
0.47
0.46
5.56%
Wednesday
AMC
METHANEX CORP
MEOH
0.15
0.11
42.86%
Wednesday
AMC
TEXAS CAP BCSHS
TCBI
0.9
0.7
1.16%
Wednesday
AMC
EAST WEST BC
EWBC
0.71
0.63
10.14%
Wednesday
AMC
BANNER CORP
BANR
0.74
0.57
1.37%
Wednesday
AMC
BANCORPSOUTH
BXS
0.37
0.33
-2.50%
Wednesday
AMC
CARDIOVASCLR SY
CSII
-0.06
-0.47
66.67%
Wednesday
AMC
FCB FINL HLDGS
FCB
0.62
0.52
1.72%
Wednesday
AMC
SEI INVESTMENTS
SEIC
0.5
0.48
8.16%
Wednesday
AMC
UMPQUA HLDGS CP
UMPQ
0.3
0.3
3.23%
Wednesday
AMC
CHEMICAL FINL
CHFC
0.71
0.7
7.46%
Wednesday
AMC
INDEP BANK GRP
IBTX
0.8
0.58
5.41%
Wednesday
AMC
CASCADE BANCORP
CACB
0.09
0.08
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
CATHAY GENL BCP
CATY
0.61
0.51
-3.33%
Wednesday
AMC
PEOPLES UTAH BC
PUB
0.33
0.27
6.25%
Wednesday
AMC
LIVE OAK BNCSH
LOB
0.11
0.16
42.86%
Wednesday
AMC
KNIGHT TRANSN
KNX
0.31
0.36
3.57%
Wednesday
AMC
DUKE REALTY CP
DRE
0.31
0.29
3.33%
Wednesday
AMC
8X8 INC
EGHT
-0.01
-0.01
150.00%
Wednesday
AMC
LAS VEGAS SANDS
LVS
0.65
0.62
22.03%
Wednesday
AMC
CORE LABS NV
CLB
0.4
0.65
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
DOLBY LAB INC-A
DLB
0.37
0.29
15.00%
Wednesday
AMC
HEXCEL CORP
HXL
0.62
0.56
6.56%
Wednesday
AMC
CIMPRESS NV
CMPR
1.1
2.49
-363.64%
Wednesday
AMC
SERVICENOW INC
NOW
-0.1
-0.19
-50.00%
Wednesday
AMC
ASTORIA FINL CP
AF
0.15
0.16
6.67%
Wednesday
AMC
CAPSTEAD MTG
CMO
0.2
0.26
-15.79%
Wednesday
AMC
ELECTRN IMAGING
EFII
0.26
0.21
164.29%
Wednesday
AMC
ETHAN ALLEN INT
ETH
0.38
0.55
-6.52%
Wednesday
AMC
FIRST CT BANCRP
FBNK
0.25
0.18
-4.00%
Wednesday
AMC
TRISTATE CP HLD
TSC
0.22
0.2
30.43%
Wednesday
AMC
QUANTUM CP-DSSG
QTM
0.02
0
200.00%
Wednesday
AMC
QUALITY SYS
QSII
0.18
0.15
16.67%
Wednesday
AMC
TERADYNE INC
TER
0.22
0.13
22.22%
Wednesday
AMC
WIPRO LTD-ADR
WIT
0.13
0.14
-7.14%
Wednesday
AMC
GOLD FIELDS-ADR
GFI
N/A
0.02
N/A
Wednesday
AMC
RLI CORP
RLI
0.47
0.56
-40.32%
Wednesday
AMC
RAYMOND JAS FIN
RJF
1
0.73
30.61%
Wednesday
N/A
BIOGEN INC
BIIB
4.98
4.5
4.01%
Thursday
BTO
HELMERICH&PAYNE
HP
-0.37
0.05
23.26%
Thursday
BTO
NORTHROP GRUMMN
NOC
2.49
2.18
7.47%
Thursday
BTO
BAKER-HUGHES
BHI
-0.1
-0.21
65.12%
Thursday
BTO
COMCAST CORP A
CMCSA
0.87
0.81
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
QUEST DIAGNOSTC
DGX
1.27
1.19
1.48%
Thursday
BTO
PRAXAIR INC
PX
1.41
1.47
0.71%
Thursday
BTO
CATERPILLAR INC
CAT
0.65
0.74
13.33%
Thursday
BTO
PULTE GROUP ONC
PHM
0.58
0.57
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
RAYTHEON CO
RTN
1.86
1.93
9.15%
Thursday
BTO
L3 TECHNOLOGIES
LLL
2.12
2.16
3.30%
Thursday
BTO
ALLIANCE DATA
ADS
4.41
3.87
8.87%
Thursday
BTO
INVESCO LTD
IVZ
0.58
0.58
-1.64%
Thursday
BTO
SHERWIN WILLIAM
SHW
2.21
2.12
-2.53%
Thursday
BTO
WESTROCK CO
WRK
0.45
0.59
14.52%
Thursday
BTO
AMER ELEC PWR
AEP
0.53
0.48
7.44%
Thursday
BTO
DOVER CORP
DOV
0.84
0.81
6.10%
Thursday
BTO
CELGENE CORP
CELG
1.43
1
6.11%
Thursday
BTO
BRISTOL-MYERS
BMY
0.66
0.38
18.46%
Thursday
BTO
STANLEY B&D INC
SWK
1.68
1.8
4.35%
Thursday
BTO
FORD MOTOR CO
F
0.34
0.58
23.81%
Thursday
BTO
DOW CHEMICAL
DOW
0.88
0.93
13.75%
Thursday
BTO
ROYAL CARIBBEAN
RCL
1.21
0.94
3.23%
Thursday
BTO
MEAD JOHNSON NU
MJN
0.83
0.78
1.16%
Thursday
BTO
RADIAN GRP INC
RDN
0.4
0.34
5.13%
Thursday
BTO
S&T BANCORP INC
STBA
0.54
0.5
18.00%
Thursday
BTO
STATE BANK FINL
STBZ
0.33
0.33
6.25%
Thursday
BTO
STMICROELECTRON
STM
0.15
0
-8.33%
Thursday
BTO
SUNCOKE ENERGY
SXCP
1.02
0.71
35.48%
Thursday
BTO
OSHKOSH CORP
OSK
0.11
0.19
25.00%
Thursday
BTO
BLACKSTONE GRP
BX
0.64
0.37
11.76%
Thursday
BTO
CARBO CERAMICS
CRR
-0.69
-0.6
32.88%
Thursday
BTO
HERITAGE FIN CP
HFWA
0.33
0.32
15.63%
Thursday
BTO
APPLD INDL TECH
AIT
0.59
0.61
14.75%
Thursday
BTO
COLUMBIA BK SYS
COLB
0.49
0.49
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
GREAT WSTRN BCP
GWB
0.62
0.56
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
PARK STERLNG CP
PSTB
0.14
0.11
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
FIRST BNCRP P R
FBP
0.09
0.07
10.00%
Thursday
BTO
UNILEVER PLC
UL
N/A
N/A
N/A
Thursday
BTO
JETBLUE AIRWAYS
JBLU
0.48
0.56
-3.33%
Thursday
BTO
LEAR CORPORATN
LEA
3.4
3.2
5.63%
Thursday
BTO
CAPITAL BNK FIN
CBF
0.43
0.41
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
CLEARFIELD INC
CLFD
0.09
0.1
66.67%
Thursday
BTO
CUSTOMERS BANCP
CUBI
0.6
0.58
6.67%
Thursday
BTO
FIAT CHRYSLER
FCAU
0.4
0.81
55.88%
Thursday
BTO
HHGREGG INC
HGG
-0.26
-0.17
-30.77%
Thursday
BTO
INDEP BK MICH
IBCP
0.27
0.25
15.38%
Thursday
BTO
LANCASTER COLON
LANC
1.38
1.25
7.02%
Thursday
BTO
K12 INC
LRN
0.28
0.23
-12.50%
Thursday
BTO
SUNCOKE ENERGY
SXC
0.35
0.16
177.78%
Thursday
BTO
COLUMBUS MCKINN
CMCO
0.37
0.32
-5.26%
Thursday
BTO
DELUXE CORP
DLX
1.34
1.26
0.83%
Thursday
BTO
DATAWATCH CORP
DWCH
-0.1
-0.34
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
INTL SPEEDWAY
ISCA
0.78
0.74
400.00%
Thursday
BTO
DIAGEO PLC-ADR
DEO
N/A
N/A
N/A
Thursday
BTO
DOVER MOTORSPRT
DVD
N/A
0.1
N/A
Thursday
BTO
BRUNSWICK CORP
BC
0.65
0.52
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
SPECTRUM BRANDS
SPB
1.15
1.01
1.55%
Thursday
BTO
BEMIS
BMS
0.66
0.6
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
ABIOMED INC
ABMD
0.29
0.23
-16.67%
Thursday
BTO
AVNET
AVT
0.75
1.22
1.11%
Thursday
BTO
POTASH SASK
POT
0.09
0.24
22.22%
Thursday
BTO
ERICSSON LM ADR
ERIC
0.1
0.3
-55.56%
Thursday
BTO
DST SYSTEMS
DST
1.51
1.67
3.38%
Thursday
BTO
ROGERS COMM CLB
RCI
0.54
0.46
-10.45%
Thursday
BTO
WESCO INTL INC
WCC
0.94
1.03
-5.41%
Thursday
BTO
WORLD ACCEPTANC
WRLD
1.43
1.7
4.76%
Thursday
BTO
UNILEVER N V
UN
N/A
N/A
N/A
Thursday
BTO
MICROSOFT CORP
MSFT
0.78
0.78
11.76%
Thursday
AMC
PAYPAL HOLDINGS
PYPL
0.34
0.32
7.41%
Thursday
AMC
E TRADE FINL CP
ETFC
0.42
0.3
34.21%
Thursday
AMC
ROBT HALF INTL
RHI
0.64
0.71
1.43%
Thursday
AMC
INTEL CORP
INTC
0.75
0.74
9.59%
Thursday
AMC
STARBUCKS CORP
SBUX
0.52
0.46
1.82%
Thursday
AMC
BARD C R INC
BCR
2.73
2.43
3.53%
Thursday
AMC
GALLAGHER ARTHU
AJG
0.66
0.58
1.32%
Thursday
AMC
JUNIPER NETWRKS
JNPR
0.52
0.52
14.63%
Thursday
AMC
EASTMAN CHEM CO
EMN
1.49
1.59
11.38%
Thursday
AMC
ALPHABET INC-A
GOOGL
7.64
7.06
9.19%
Thursday
AMC
KLA-TENCOR CORP
KLAC
1.4
1.04
9.43%
Thursday
AMC
Harman International Industries Inc.
HAR
1.87
1.84
21.43%
Thursday
N/A
AMER RIVER BSH
AMRB
0.2
0.2
35.00%
Thursday
AMC
8POINT3 ENERGY
CAFD
0
N/A
-9.52%
Thursday
AMC
SVB FINL GP
SIVB
1.76
1.68
21.14%
Thursday
AMC
MB FINANCL INC
MBFI
0.61
0.56
5.00%
Thursday
AMC
GLACIER BANCORP
GBCI
0.41
0.39
-4.76%
Thursday
AMC
FIRST BUSEY-A
BUSE
0.41
0.36
2.56%
Thursday
AMC
FIRST INTST MT
FIBK
0.58
0.52
5.45%
Thursday
AMC
INVESTORS BANCP
ISBC
0.16
0.14
0.00%
Thursday
AMC
PACIFIC CONTL
PCBK
0.27
0.28
-11.54%
Thursday
AMC
CENTERSTATE BNK
CSFL
0.31
0.23
6.67%
Thursday
AMC
OCEANFIRST FINL
OCFC
0.38
0.33
5.26%
Thursday
AMC
FB FINANCIAL CP
FBK
0.42
N/A
-6.78%
Thursday
AMC
NATIONAL BK HLD
NBHC
0.23
0.16
20.00%
Thursday
AMC
MAXIM INTG PDTS
MXIM
0.43
0.32
2.13%
Thursday
AMC
IBERIABANK CORP
IBKC
1.16
1.11
-10.00%
Thursday
AMC
VALVOLINE INC
VVV
0.3
N/A
-9.38%
Thursday
AMC
FLEXTRONIC INTL
FLEX
0.3
0.33
0.00%
Thursday
AMC
HILLTOP HLDGS
HTH
0.46
0.21
0.00%
Thursday
AMC
SHORETEL INC
SHOR
-0.06
0.04
20.00%
Thursday
AMC
VMWARE INC-A
VMW
1.08
1
5.00%
Thursday
AMC
DIGI INTL INC
DGII
0.07
0.11
27.27%
Thursday
AMC
SUPER MICRO COM
SMCI
0.42
0.67
73.33%
Thursday
AMC
ASPEN TECH INC
AZPN
0.43
0.45
12.82%
Thursday
AMC
GREENHILL & CO
GHL
0.6
0.25
0.00%
Thursday
AMC
NATL INSTRS CP
NATI
0.31
0.3
22.22%
Thursday
AMC
CELESTICA INC
CLS
0.28
0.2
68.18%
Thursday
AMC
EQUITY BANCSHRS
EQBK
-0.08
0.34
0.00%
Thursday
AMC
INTRICON CORP
IIN
-0.04
0.19
-18.75%
Thursday
AMC
LANTRONIX INC
LTRX
-0.05
-0.04
100.00%
Thursday
AMC
MATTHEWS INTL-A
MATW
0.65
0.6
10.20%
Thursday
AMC
MARLIN BUS SVCS
MRLN
0.37
0.4
-2.78%
Thursday
AMC
UNISYS
UIS
0.55
1.58
51.85%
Thursday
AMC
WSFS FINL CORP
WSFS
0.61
0.59
-12.07%
Thursday
AMC
MICROSEMI CORP
MSCC
0.69
0.58
5.48%
Thursday
AMC
PROOFPOINT INC
PFPT
-0.27
-0.51
34.15%
Thursday
AMC
MIDLAND STATES
MSBI
0.62
N/A
-23.88%
Thursday
AMC
SWIFT TRANSPORT
SWFT
0.4
0.53
6.25%
Thursday
AMC
ASHLAND GLOBAL
ASH
0.99
1.41
-6.17%
Thursday
AMC
ABAXIS INC
ABAX
0.3
0.35
-5.56%
Thursday
AMC
FEDERATED INVST
FII
0.51
0.46
3.85%
Thursday
AMC
SYNAPTICS INC
SYNA
0.98
1.28
-8.82%
Thursday
AMC
SOUTHWEST AIR
LUV
0.68
0.9
5.68%
Thursday
N/A
COBIZ FINL INC
COBZ
0.2
0.11
25.00%
Thursday
N/A
WESTERN ALLIANC
WAL
0.68
0.57
1.54%
Thursday
N/A
FIRST MERCHANTS
FRME
0.5
0.37
4.08%
Thursday
N/A
SVENSKA CELLULS
SVCBY
N/A
0.47
17.95%
Thursday
N/A
EURONAV SA
EURN
0.09
0.66
100.00%
Thursday
N/A
NORDEA BANK AB
NRBAY
N/A
0.23
13.64%
Thursday
N/A
OLD REP INTL
ORI
0.3
0.29
-7.50%
Thursday
N/A
ORIX CORP-ADR
IX
N/A
0.17
N/A
Thursday
N/A
SKY PLC-ADR
SKYAY
N/A
N/A
N/A
Thursday
N/A
AMER AIRLINES
AAL
0.89
2
66.67%
Friday
BTO
NEXTERA ENERGY
NEE
1.29
1.17
5.45%
Friday
BTO
ABBVIE INC
ABBV
1.2
1.13
0.00%
Friday
BTO
GENL DYNAMICS
GD
2.54
2.4
4.64%
Friday
BTO
CHEVRON CORP
CVX
0.65
-0.31
74.36%
Friday
BTO
AIR PRODS & CHE
APD
1.47
1.78
1.01%
Friday
BTO
FRANKLIN RESOUR
BEN
0.68
0.74
18.84%
Friday
BTO
COLGATE PALMOLI
CL
0.75
0.73
0.00%
Friday
BTO
HONEYWELL INTL
HON
1.74
1.58
4.37%
Friday
BTO
TCF FINL CORP
TCB
0.3
0.29
3.33%
Friday
BTO
NEXTERA ENERGY
NEP
0.37
0.31
87.88%
Friday
BTO
GASLOG PARTNERS
GLOP
0.52
0.59
-1.82%
Friday
BTO
ATLANTIC CAP BC
ACBI
0.16
0.08
-5.88%
Friday
BTO
SOUTH STATE CP
SSB
1.15
1.11
1.72%
Friday
BTO
CAPITOL FEDL FN
CFFN
0.16
0.16
6.67%
Friday
BTO
HILL-ROM HLDGS
HRC
0.75
0.68
4.42%
Friday
BTO
PROVIDNT FIN SV
PFS
0.37
0.34
2.86%
Friday
BTO
BT GRP PLC-ADR
BT
0.49
1.36
11.90%
Friday
BTO
GENTEX CORP
GNTX
0.31
0.3
6.67%
Friday
BTO
POLYONE CORP
POL
0.37
0.39
1.82%
Friday
BTO
SOUTHSIDE BANCS
SBSI
0.49
0.44
-9.26%
Friday
BTO
WARTSILA OYJ
WRTBY
N/A
N/A
N/A
Friday
N/A
GRUPO FIN SANTR
BSMX
0.16
0.19
-6.25%
Friday
N/A
NTT DOCOMO -ADR
DCM
N/A
0.37
N/A
Friday
N/A
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Q4 Earnings Growth the Highest in 8 Quarters
The Q4 earnings season has gotten off to a good start, with earnings and revenue growth tracking above other recent periods and on track to reach the highest level in 8 quarters. Positive surprises, particularly on the earnings front, are a bit on the low side relative to historical periods at this stage. We will see if this trend continues this week as we enter the heart of the earnings season, with more than 300 companies coming out with quarterly results, including 105 S&P 500 members.
As of Friday, January 20th, we have seen Q4 results from 63 S&P 500 members that combined account for 19.2% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 63 index members are up +4.7% on +2.7% higher revenues, with 66.7% beating EPS estimates and 50.8% coming ahead of top-line expectations.
The table below provides the current Q4 scorecard
The charts below provide a comparison of the results thus far with what we have seen from this same group of 63 S&P 500 members in other recent periods.
As you can see, the Q4 growth pace is notably tracking above what we had seen from the same group of 63 index members in other recent periods. But positive surprises (right-hand chart above) are tracking a bit on the low side at this stage, particularly on the earnings side. The 66.7% proportion of Q4 companies beating EPS estimates compares to 81% in the preceding quarter, 75% as the 4-quarter average and 71.3% as the 12-quarter average. Positive revenue surprises are tracking below what we had seen from the same group of companies in Q3, but are roughly in-line with historical periods.
The chart below compares the proportion of companies reporting Q4 results that are beating both EPS and revenue estimates with what this same group of companies had reported in other recent periods.
Trump Bump for Banks
The sample of Q4 earnings reports is heavily weighted towards the Finance sector at this stage whose improved results are helping the aggregate growth picture as well. The growth picture looks a lot less impressive once looked at on an ex-Finance basis.
Total earnings for the roughly half of the Finance sector’s market cap in the S&P 500 index that have reported results are up +11.8% from the same period last year on +2.6% higher revenues, with +68.2% beating EPS estimates and +45.5% beating top-line estimates.
This is better growth performance than we have seen from the sector in other recent periods, as the comparison charts below show. Please note that positive surprises are as hard to come by in the Finance sector as they are elsewhere.
We didn’t really see the full impact of higher interest rates on the banks’ net interest margins in Q4 results. But higher interest rates, increased confidence and the resultant enhanced appetite for risks did juice the trading revenues for JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) and even Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) . This didn’t come as a surprise to the market, as estimates and stock prices had already run up quite a bit ahead of these earnings reports. It is reasonable to expect these bank stocks to remain in a holding pattern in the coming days till fundamentals changes in a meaningful way and/or progress on legislative expectations start showing up.
Key Reports for the Week of January 23rd
Monday – 1/23/2017: McDonalds (MCD) and Halliburton (HAL) are the notable for the four index members reporting results today. Estimates for Zacks Rank # 1 (Strong Buy) rated Halliburton have been going up lately, reflecting the company’s strong positioning in the North American oilfield region. The stock has literally been on a tear lately, up +88.9% in the past year vs. +44.2% gain for the Zacks Energy sector and +41.9% gain for peer Schlumberger (SLB) whose Q4 results failed to impress on Friday.
Tuesday – 1/24/2017: We have 21 S&P 500 members reporting results today, of which 12 report before the market’s open. Verizon (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) and 3M (MMM) are the notable reports, all reporting in the morning. China’s Alibaba (BABA) is also on deck to report results today.
Wednesday – 1/25/2017: Of the 31 index members reporting results today (16 in the morning), the notable reports are from Boeing (BA - Free Report) and AT&T (T - Free Report) . Boeing shares are up +11.8% since November 8th, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace sector (up +8.9%) on hopes of ramped up defense spending from the Trump administration.
Thursday – 1/26/2017: On a busy reporting day with 37 index members coming out with Q4 results (24 in the morning & 13 after the market’s close), we have Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC - Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) reporting results after the close. Other notable reports today include Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) and Ford (F - Free Report) in the morning and Starbucks (SBUX) after the close.
Estimates for Microsoft have gone up ahead of the earnings release and the stock has outperformed the broader Tech sector (up +21.5%) and Alphabet (up +13.4%) by gaining +23.4% over the past year. Starbucks has been a notable laggard over the past year, with the stock modestly in negative territory over that time period, though it has turned around a bit since early November.
Friday – 1/27/2017: Chevron (CVX - Free Report) and American Airlines (AAL) are the notable reports today, both in the morning.
Q4 Expectations As a Whole
For Q4 as a whole, total earnings for the S&P 500 companies are expected to be up +4.8% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues. This would follow the +3.8% growth in Q3 earnings on +2.3% higher revenues, the first instance of positive earnings growth for the index after five quarters of back-to-back declines. Comparisons for the Energy sector, a big driver of the earnings recession, turn positive in Q4, with the sector’s earnings growth turning positive for the first time after 8 quarters of declines.
The chart below shows the Q3 earnings growth contrasted with declines in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.
The table below shows the summary picture Q4 contrasted with what was actually achieved in the preceding quarter.
Note: Sheraz Mian heads the Zacks Equity Research department and is a well-regarded expert of aggregate earnings. He is frequently quoted in the print and electronic media and publishes the weekly Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview reports. If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, please click here>>>
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Here is a list of the 330 companies reporting this week, including 105 S&P 500 members.