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Earnings results from the big banks highlight the benefits of diverse revenue streams, with JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) offsetting decelerating loan growth trends with gains from their investment banking businesses. Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) has been dealing lately with a number of company-specific issues, but the absence of a strong investment banking franchise was very much apparent in its earnings.
The loan growth deceleration in all of these reports didn’t come as a surprise - we had seen it in Fed data already. Some of the explanations offered include lower mortgage activity in the wake of higher rates, weak car loan demand and strong capital markets activities prompting big commercial and industrial borrowers to use the bond markets instead of banks.
But these explanations for the slowdown are far from satisfactory, particularly given the backdrop of steadily improving consumer and business confidence and expectations of ramped up U.S. economic growth. That said, the tepid loan demand picture is nevertheless a bigger issue for the regional banks that will be coming out with quarterly results this week. In total, we have 178 companies reporting Q1 results this week, including 61 S&P 500 members.
Finance Sector Scorecard
It is still fairly early, with results from only 4 Finance sector companies in the S&P 500 (out of 94 total) out already, but these 4 companies are the some of the largest in the entire index and account for 21.6% of the sector’s total market capitalization in the index. Total earnings for these 4 Finance sector companies are up +10.8% from the same period last year on +3% higher revenues, with all 4 beating EPS estimates but only 2 beating top-line estimates.
This is better earnings growth than we have seen from the same group of 4 banks in other recent periods, which is having a favorable impact on the aggregate Q1 growth expectation for the sector as a whole. The chart below compares the growth pace (earnings and revenue) and proportion of positive surprises for these 4 banks with what we saw from this same group of companies in other recent periods.
Total Q1 earnings for the Finance sector as a whole, combining the reported actuals with the still-to-come estimates, are expected to be up +11% from the same period last year. The table below shows the sector’s Q1 earnings growth expectations at the medium-industry level contrasted with estimates for the following four quarters and actual results for the preceding four periods.
Please note that the Major Banks industry, of which JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and others are part, accounts for roughly 45% of the sector’s total earnings (insurance is the second biggest earnings contributor, accounting for about 25% of the total).
Expectations for Q1 As a Whole
Total Q1 earnings are expected to be up +7.6% from the same period last year on +6.3% higher revenues. This would follow +7.4% earnings growth in 2016 Q4 on +4.7%, the highest growth pace in all most two years.
The table below shows the summary picture for Q1, contrasted with what was actually achieved in Q4.
Please note that the Q1 earnings season follows the strong showing on the earnings front in the preceding reporting cycle. Not only did 2016 Q4 growth reach the highest in two years, but total earnings for the quarter also reached a new quarterly record. The strong Q4 performance came after the first positive earnings growth in 2016 Q3, having declined in each of the preceding 5 quarters.
The chart below shows the Q1 earnings growth contrasted with what is expected in the following three quarters and actual results in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.
You can see this improved earnings backdrop as the chart below of the S&P 500 relative to forward 12-month Zacks Consensus estimates shows
Please note that the earnings backdrop has not changed in any meaningful way since the November elections, notwithstanding the market’s strong gains since then.
Note: Sheraz Mian manages the Zacks equity research department. He is an acknowledged earnings expert whose commentaries and analyses appear on Zacks.com and in the print and electronic media. His weekly earnings related articles include Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview. He manages the Zacks Top 10 and Focus List portfolios and writes the Weekly Market Analysis article for Zacks Premium subscribers.
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Here is a list of the 177 companies including 61 S&P 500 members reporting this week.
Company
Ticker
Current Qtr
Year-Ago Qtr
Last EPS Surprise %
Report Day
Time
M&T BANK CORP
MTB
1.94
1.87
-0.99%
Monday
BTO
NETFLIX INC
NFLX
0.38
0.06
15.38%
Monday
AMC
UNITED CONT HLD
UAL
0.35
1.23
7.88%
Monday
AMC
EQUITY LIFESTYL
ELS
0.98
0.92
1.25%
Monday
AMC
FIRST DEFIANCE
FDEF
0.74
0.78
6.58%
Monday
AMC
CONSOL TOMOKA
CTO
1.91
0.25
-62.66%
Monday
AMC
SERVISFIRST BCS
SFBS
0.4
0.33
14.29%
Monday
AMC
CELANESE CP-A
CE
1.71
1.83
0.66%
Monday
AMC
BARRACUDA NTWRK
CUDA
0.05
0.07
100.00%
Monday
AMC
BROWN & BROWN
BRO
0.42
0.44
2.44%
Monday
AMC
PINNACLE FIN PT
PNFP
0.76
0.71
0.00%
Monday
AMC
REEDS INC
REED
-0.01
-0.12
50.00%
Monday
AMC
Yahoo Inc
YHOO
0.08
0.1
4.40%
Monday
N/A
REGIONS FINL CP
RF
0.22
0.2
4.55%
Tuesday
BTO
UNITEDHEALTH GP
UNH
2.18
1.81
1.93%
Tuesday
BTO
BANK OF AMER CP
BAC
0.35
0.21
5.26%
Tuesday
BTO
HARLEY-DAVIDSON
HOG
0.99
1.36
-15.63%
Tuesday
BTO
PROLOGIS INC
PLD
0.63
0.61
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
COMERICA INC
CMA
1.01
0.34
4.21%
Tuesday
BTO
JOHNSON & JOHNS
JNJ
1.77
1.68
1.28%
Tuesday
BTO
SCHWAB(CHAS)
SCHW
0.37
0.29
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
GRAINGER W W
GWW
3.01
3.18
3.81%
Tuesday
BTO
GOLDMAN SACHS
GS
5.38
2.68
6.72%
Tuesday
BTO
OMNICOM GRP
OMC
0.96
0.9
1.38%
Tuesday
BTO
MERCANTILE BANK
MBWM
0.43
0.52
6.52%
Tuesday
BTO
SYNOVUS FINL CP
SNV
0.51
0.43
1.89%
Tuesday
BTO
LINCOLN ELECTRC
LECO
0.78
0.76
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
HANMI FINL CP
HAFC
0.44
0.46
9.52%
Tuesday
BTO
TILE SHOP HLDGS
TTS
0.14
0.14
-22.22%
Tuesday
BTO
GNC HOLDINGS
GNC
0.33
0.69
-81.08%
Tuesday
BTO
LAM RESEARCH
LRCX
2.54
1.18
2.28%
Tuesday
AMC
NAVIENT CORP
NAVI
0.43
0.43
-2.27%
Tuesday
AMC
INTL BUS MACH
IBM
2.34
2.35
2.45%
Tuesday
AMC
INTUITIVE SURG
ISRG
3.97
3.67
0.76%
Tuesday
AMC
HANCOCK HLDG CO
HBHC
0.57
0.09
4.92%
Tuesday
AMC
FULTON FINL
FULT
0.23
0.22
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
WESBANCO INC
WSBC
0.6
0.6
1.72%
Tuesday
AMC
PZENA INVESTMNT
PZN
0.13
0.09
7.14%
Tuesday
AMC
UNIVL FST PRODS
UFPI
1.03
0.95
-6.85%
Tuesday
AMC
WINTRUST FINL
WTFC
0.91
0.9
4.44%
Tuesday
AMC
CALAMP CORP
CAMP
0.23
0.27
-14.29%
Tuesday
AMC
LEGACY TX FINL
LTXB
0.58
0.43
-3.57%
Tuesday
AMC
ADTRAN INC
ADTN
0.13
0.11
60.00%
Tuesday
AMC
EAGLE BCP INC
EGBN
0.73
0.68
5.63%
Tuesday
AMC
FIRST CT BANCRP
FBNK
0.24
0.23
8.00%
Tuesday
AMC
HOPE BANCORP
HOPE
0.32
0.31
-6.06%
Tuesday
AMC
INTERACTIVE BRK
IBKR
0.39
0.51
-78.13%
Tuesday
AMC
ROGERS COMM CLB
RCI
0.43
0.35
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
HUNTINGTON BANC
HBAN
0.22
0.2
9.09%
Wednesday
BTO
US BANCORP
USB
0.8
0.76
1.23%
Wednesday
BTO
TEXTRON INC
TXT
0.46
0.55
-8.05%
Wednesday
BTO
BLACKROCK INC
BLK
4.93
4.25
2.39%
Wednesday
BTO
MORGAN STANLEY
MS
0.9
0.55
24.62%
Wednesday
BTO
GENUINE PARTS
GPC
1.05
1.05
0.99%
Wednesday
BTO
ABBOTT LABS
ABT
0.43
0.41
1.56%
Wednesday
BTO
SIGNATURE BANK
SBNY
2.1
1.96
0.96%
Wednesday
BTO
LITHIA MOTORS
LAD
1.77
1.55
-0.53%
Wednesday
BTO
ASML HOLDING NV
ASML
0.99
0.51
25.47%
Wednesday
BTO
UNION BANKSHARS
UBSH
0.43
0.38
6.67%
Wednesday
BTO
AKZO NOBEL NV
AKZOY
N/A
0.35
N/A
Wednesday
BTO
CSX CORP
CSX
0.43
0.37
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
UTD RENTALS INC
URI
1.53
1.4
16.09%
Wednesday
AMC
AMER EXPRESS CO
AXP
1.28
1.45
-7.14%
Wednesday
AMC
SL GREEN REALTY
SLG
1.57
1.85
-0.69%
Wednesday
AMC
EBAY INC
EBAY
0.4
0.41
-6.38%
Wednesday
AMC
TORCHMARK CORP
TMK
1.14
1.08
3.57%
Wednesday
AMC
QUALCOMM INC
QCOM
1.05
0.89
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
TEXAS CAP BCSHS
TCBI
0.88
0.49
5.49%
Wednesday
AMC
PREFERRED BANK
PFBC
0.7
0.56
7.58%
Wednesday
AMC
SEI INVESTMENTS
SEIC
0.52
0.46
7.84%
Wednesday
AMC
EXPONENT INC
EXPO
0.46
0.4
14.71%
Wednesday
AMC
SIMMONS FIRST A
SFNC
0.81
0.77
9.64%
Wednesday
AMC
LASALLE HTL PRP
LHO
0.43
0.49
-1.59%
Wednesday
AMC
EAST WEST BC
EWBC
0.75
0.74
7.04%
Wednesday
AMC
BRANDYWINE RT
BDN
0.32
0.31
6.06%
Wednesday
AMC
BANCORPSOUTH
BXS
0.38
0.39
8.11%
Wednesday
AMC
CROWN HLDGS INC
CCK
0.7
0.69
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
SELECT COMFORT
SCSS
0.45
0.27
-21.88%
Wednesday
AMC
PTC INC
PTC
0.16
0.11
-33.33%
Wednesday
AMC
SLM CORP
SLM
0.15
0.14
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
STEEL DYNAMICS
STLD
0.79
0.26
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
TRIUMPH BANCORP
TBK
0.37
0.27
-15.38%
Wednesday
AMC
WOODWARD INC
WWD
0.67
0.65
46.00%
Wednesday
AMC
CYS INVESTMENTS
CYS
0.26
0.19
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
PLEXUS CORP
PLXS
0.76
0.55
7.89%
Wednesday
AMC
CATHAY GENL BCP
CATY
0.61
0.57
-1.64%
Wednesday
AMC
COHEN&STRS INC
CNS
0.47
0.42
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
HNI CORP
HNI
0.22
0.31
-3.53%
Wednesday
AMC
RLI CORP
RLI
0.48
0.54
19.15%
Wednesday
AMC
BENCHMARK ELETR
BHE
0.26
0.26
9.76%
Wednesday
AMC
IDEX CORP
IEX
0.93
0.89
3.23%
Wednesday
AMC
CDN PAC RLWY
CP
1.9
1.82
-3.80%
Wednesday
AMC
HEXCEL CORP
HXL
0.63
0.59
3.23%
Wednesday
AMC
CORE LABS NV
CLB
0.39
0.37
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
UMPQUA HLDGS CP
UMPQ
0.26
0.29
-10.00%
Wednesday
AMC
BADGER METER
BMI
0.26
0.28
-8.70%
Wednesday
AMC
KAISER ALUMINUM
KALU
1.12
1.51
4.10%
Wednesday
AMC
VALMONT INDS
VMI
1.62
1.49
8.78%
Wednesday
N/A
TD AMERITRADE
AMTD
0.41
0.38
0.00%
Wednesday
N/A
QUEST DIAGNOSTC
DGX
1.18
1.12
3.15%
Thursday
BTO
DANAHER CORP
DHR
0.84
1.08
1.94%
Thursday
BTO
SHERWIN WILLIAM
SHW
2.07
1.81
5.41%
Thursday
BTO
D R HORTON INC
DHI
0.59
0.52
17.02%
Thursday
BTO
VERIZON COMM
VZ
0.98
1.06
-3.37%
Thursday
BTO
BB&T CORP
BBT
0.7
0.69
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
KEYCORP NEW
KEY
0.28
0.24
6.90%
Thursday
BTO
PPG INDS INC
PPG
1.31
1.31
0.85%
Thursday
BTO
DOVER CORP
DOV
0.6
0.52
-15.48%
Thursday
BTO
CITIZENS FIN GP
CFG
0.51
0.41
3.77%
Thursday
BTO
TRAVELERS COS
TRV
2.38
2.33
21.67%
Thursday
BTO
BANK OF NY MELL
BK
0.8
0.74
-1.28%
Thursday
BTO
PEOPLES UTD FIN
PBCT
0.22
0.21
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
SNAP-ON INC
SNA
2.34
2.16
2.49%
Thursday
BTO
ALLIANCE DATA
ADS
3.65
3.63
0.91%
Thursday
BTO
NUCOR CORP
NUE
1.13
0.22
47.06%
Thursday
BTO
SCORPIO BULKERS
SALT
-0.21
-1.12
-16.00%
Thursday
BTO
MGIC INVSTMT CP
MTG
0.24
0.19
27.27%
Thursday
BTO
HOME BANCSHARES
HOMB
0.32
0.29
6.06%
Thursday
BTO
S&T BANCORP INC
STBA
0.53
0.46
-5.56%
Thursday
BTO
LAWSON PRODUCTS
LAWS
0.1
0.12
-6.25%
Thursday
BTO
BLACKSTONE GRP
BX
0.69
0.31
7.94%
Thursday
BTO
SONOCO PRODUCTS
SON
0.59
0.65
-1.59%
Thursday
BTO
IMAX CORP
IMAX
0.04
0.14
8.33%
Thursday
BTO
JANUS CAP GRP
JNS
0.21
0.19
-16.67%
Thursday
BTO
GATX CORP
GATX
1.08
1.62
8.57%
Thursday
BTO
SUNCOKE ENERGY
SXCP
0.26
0.64
-24.27%
Thursday
BTO
ABB LTD-ADR
ABB
0.24
0.23
22.22%
Thursday
BTO
KCG HOLDINGS
KCG
0.01
0.41
-385.71%
Thursday
BTO
SUNCOKE ENERGY
SXC
-0.1
0.05
-40.91%
Thursday
BTO
CELESTICA INC
CLS
0.22
0.2
21.43%
Thursday
BTO
DATAWATCH CORP
DWCH
-0.07
-0.23
-50.00%
Thursday
BTO
NEUROMETRIX INC
NURO
-0.49
-1.02
30.67%
Thursday
BTO
CONTROLADORA VL
VLRS
-0.24
0.34
64.29%
Thursday
BTO
VISA INC-A
V
0.79
0.68
10.26%
Thursday
AMC
MATTEL INC
MAT
-0.17
-0.13
-26.76%
Thursday
AMC
E TRADE FINL CP
ETFC
0.39
0.43
2.38%
Thursday
AMC
GLACIER BANCORP
GBCI
0.41
0.38
0.00%
Thursday
AMC
WESTERN ALLIANC
WAL
0.69
0.6
2.94%
Thursday
AMC
FCB FINL HLDGS
FCB
0.63
0.53
0.00%
Thursday
AMC
FIRST FIN BC-OH
FFBC
0.35
0.32
2.70%
Thursday
AMC
NCR CORP-NEW
NCR
0.46
0.38
3.88%
Thursday
AMC
QCR HLDGS INC
QCRH
0.63
0.52
3.23%
Thursday
AMC
ASSOC BANC CORP
ASB
0.31
0.27
6.25%
Thursday
AMC
MAXIM INTG PDTS
MXIM
0.52
0.41
6.98%
Thursday
AMC
EASTGROUP PPTYS
EGP
0.98
0.91
0.93%
Thursday
AMC
HAWAIIAN HLDGS
HA
0.85
0.8
-1.54%
Thursday
AMC
PROOFPOINT INC
PFPT
-0.35
-0.54
-26.92%
Thursday
AMC
BASIC EGY SVCS
BAS
-0.86
-99.99
-7.27%
Thursday
AMC
BRIGGS & STRATT
BGG
0.81
0.8
20.69%
Thursday
AMC
TRISTATE CP HLD
TSC
0.24
0.21
17.39%
Thursday
AMC
CLEARWATER PAPR
CLW
0.69
1.07
-3.53%
Thursday
AMC
ELECTRN IMAGING
EFII
0.05
0.04
59.26%
Thursday
AMC
MANHATTAN ASOC
MANH
0.34
0.38
7.69%
Thursday
AMC
EQUITY BANCSHRS
EQBK
0.29
0.41
562.50%
Thursday
AMC
INDEP BK MASS
INDB
0.71
0.72
2.70%
Thursday
AMC
NATIONAL BK HLD
NBHC
0.24
0.23
56.52%
Thursday
AMC
WERNER ENTRPRS
WERN
0.21
0.28
15.38%
Thursday
AMC
SANDY SPRING
SASR
0.54
0.45
1.85%
Thursday
N/A
GRUPO AEROP-ADS
OMAB
N/A
0.42
14.29%
Thursday
N/A
SUNTRUST BKS
STI
0.84
0.84
2.27%
Friday
BTO
STANLEY B&D INC
SWK
1.19
1.32
1.79%
Friday
BTO
HONEYWELL INTL
HON
1.62
1.53
0.00%
Friday
BTO
KANSAS CITY SOU
KSU
1.16
1.03
-4.27%
Friday
BTO
ROCKWELL COLLIN
COL
1.31
1.3
4.35%
Friday
BTO
GENL ELECTRIC
GE
0.17
0.21
0.00%
Friday
BTO
INTERPUBLIC GRP
IPG
0.02
0
13.64%
Friday
BTO
NEXTERA ENERGY
NEE
1.55
1.55
-6.20%
Friday
BTO
SCHLUMBERGER LT
SLB
0.26
0.4
0.00%
Friday
BTO
STEVEN MADDEN
SHOO
0.44
0.33
0.00%
Friday
BTO
WABCO HOLDINGS
WBC
1.44
1.37
2.08%
Friday
BTO
WEBSTER FINL CP
WBS
0.57
0.51
9.09%
Friday
BTO
GENTEX CORP
GNTX
0.31
0.28
-3.12%
Friday
BTO
MANPOWER INC WI
MAN
1.1
0.98
5.88%
Friday
BTO
NEXTERA ENERGY
NEP
0.41
0.14
145.95%
Friday
BTO
SOUTH STATE CP
SSB
1.13
1.04
0.00%
Friday
BTO
CAPITAL BNK FIN
CBF
0.44
0.38
2.33%
Friday
BTO
AMERIS BANCORP
ABCB
0.6
0.5
10.71%
Friday
BTO
TECNOGLASS INC
TGLS
0.11
0.17
-21.05%
Friday
AMC
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Q1 Earnings Season Ramps Up
Earnings results from the big banks highlight the benefits of diverse revenue streams, with JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) offsetting decelerating loan growth trends with gains from their investment banking businesses. Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) has been dealing lately with a number of company-specific issues, but the absence of a strong investment banking franchise was very much apparent in its earnings.
The loan growth deceleration in all of these reports didn’t come as a surprise - we had seen it in Fed data already. Some of the explanations offered include lower mortgage activity in the wake of higher rates, weak car loan demand and strong capital markets activities prompting big commercial and industrial borrowers to use the bond markets instead of banks.
But these explanations for the slowdown are far from satisfactory, particularly given the backdrop of steadily improving consumer and business confidence and expectations of ramped up U.S. economic growth. That said, the tepid loan demand picture is nevertheless a bigger issue for the regional banks that will be coming out with quarterly results this week. In total, we have 178 companies reporting Q1 results this week, including 61 S&P 500 members.
Finance Sector Scorecard
It is still fairly early, with results from only 4 Finance sector companies in the S&P 500 (out of 94 total) out already, but these 4 companies are the some of the largest in the entire index and account for 21.6% of the sector’s total market capitalization in the index. Total earnings for these 4 Finance sector companies are up +10.8% from the same period last year on +3% higher revenues, with all 4 beating EPS estimates but only 2 beating top-line estimates.
This is better earnings growth than we have seen from the same group of 4 banks in other recent periods, which is having a favorable impact on the aggregate Q1 growth expectation for the sector as a whole. The chart below compares the growth pace (earnings and revenue) and proportion of positive surprises for these 4 banks with what we saw from this same group of companies in other recent periods.
Total Q1 earnings for the Finance sector as a whole, combining the reported actuals with the still-to-come estimates, are expected to be up +11% from the same period last year. The table below shows the sector’s Q1 earnings growth expectations at the medium-industry level contrasted with estimates for the following four quarters and actual results for the preceding four periods.
Please note that the Major Banks industry, of which JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and others are part, accounts for roughly 45% of the sector’s total earnings (insurance is the second biggest earnings contributor, accounting for about 25% of the total).
Expectations for Q1 As a Whole
Total Q1 earnings are expected to be up +7.6% from the same period last year on +6.3% higher revenues. This would follow +7.4% earnings growth in 2016 Q4 on +4.7%, the highest growth pace in all most two years.
The table below shows the summary picture for Q1, contrasted with what was actually achieved in Q4.
Please note that the Q1 earnings season follows the strong showing on the earnings front in the preceding reporting cycle. Not only did 2016 Q4 growth reach the highest in two years, but total earnings for the quarter also reached a new quarterly record. The strong Q4 performance came after the first positive earnings growth in 2016 Q3, having declined in each of the preceding 5 quarters.
The chart below shows the Q1 earnings growth contrasted with what is expected in the following three quarters and actual results in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.
You can see this improved earnings backdrop as the chart below of the S&P 500 relative to forward 12-month Zacks Consensus estimates shows
Please note that the earnings backdrop has not changed in any meaningful way since the November elections, notwithstanding the market’s strong gains since then.
Note: Sheraz Mian manages the Zacks equity research department. He is an acknowledged earnings expert whose commentaries and analyses appear on Zacks.com and in the print and electronic media. His weekly earnings related articles include Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview. He manages the Zacks Top 10 and Focus List portfolios and writes the Weekly Market Analysis article for Zacks Premium subscribers.
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Here is a list of the 177 companies including 61 S&P 500 members reporting this week.