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Charging Into Q1, Tesla Looks To Continue Historic Rise
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It’s finally time for companies to pull back the curtain and unveil their highly-awaited 2022 Q1 results. It’s been rough sailing in the market year-to-date; soaring energy prices, supply-chain bottlenecks, and other economic restraints have all been pains in the neck for companies throughout the quarter.
Now that we’re in the midst of all the action, we have a vast selection of companies each day reporting Q1 results. One thrilling company that’s been a scorching-hot topic of conversation in the market over the past several years, Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , reports tomorrow on Wednesday after the bell rings.
We all know how exciting of a company Tesla is, pushing boundaries with world-changing technologies such as Electric Vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. The company’s earnings release is easily one of the most-watched out there, so let’s go ahead and dive into what analysts are forecasting for Q1.
Key Metric To Watch
A key metric to keep a close eye on in its Q1 report is the total amount of EVs delivered to customers. It’s vital to see just how many EVs Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) was able to deliver; it represents successful business operations from start to finish.
Tesla has a track record of surprising analysts within this metric. TSLA delivered nearly 309,000 EVs in its latest quarter, beating the 283,000 consensus delivery estimate easily by a solid 9%.
In fact, the EV manufacturer has had only one delivery miss over its last six quarters; the 201,300 deliveries in June 2021 fell short of the 202,900 consensus estimate by a marginal 0.8%. In this same six-quarter timeframe, the average delivery surprise has been a notable 3.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For Q1, the consensus estimate for total deliveries currently sits at approximately 298,500. On April 2nd, the company released its 2022 Q1 delivery results and confirmed that just over 310,000 EVs had been delivered, a new quarterly record for the company that easily beats the consensus estimate for the quarter by nearly 4%. I think it’s critical to recognize that TSLA surpassed expectations in a quarter that was overshadowed by volatility and supply-chain bottlenecks.
Overall, heading into Q1, Tesla’s total deliveries metric is once again looking robust and bodes well for the company’s shares. With robust EV demand and a track record of continuously shocking investors and analysts, it’s no surprise that the EV manufacturer is once again rolling into Q1 with new delivery records. Additionally, the 2022 Q1 delivery estimate reflects a stellar 67% year-over-year growth from 2021 Q1.
Model 3/Y
The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y have been wildly successful, with the Model 3 becoming both Tesla’s most popular model and the overall best-selling EV globally in 2020. With such powerful stances in the company’s product line, I think it’s essential to analyze the Model 3/Y delivery trend as well. It's important to note that the Model Y is built on the same chassis as the Model 3.
The Q1 consensus delivery estimate for the models currently sits at around 287,000. Flipping the pages back, Tesla has crushed the consensus delivery estimate in each quarter dating back to September 2020. In its latest Q4 report in December 2021, TSLA delivered close to 297,000 Model 3/Y’s, easily surpassing the 265,000 estimate by nearly 12%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS & Revenue
In its latest quarter, Tesla beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.11 per share by a solid 21% and reported EPS of $2.54. Additionally, the EV giant has acquired a double-digit average EPS surprise of 33% over its last four quarters. Rolling into Q1, TSLA has an Earnings ESP Score of 10.2%.
Analysts have been bullish for Q1 over the last 60 days, with all four estimate revisions hitting the tape being positive. The upward estimate revisions have caused the Q1 Consensus Estimate Trend to climb a notable 7.5% and reflect quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share. Furthermore, full-year 2022 estimates have inched up 3.5% to $9.83 per share in the same time frame.
Here’s where things get interesting – the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.16 per share for Q1 reflects a massive triple-digit year-over-year increase in earnings of 132%. Additionally, the full-year estimate for 2022 at $9.83 per share displays a sizable 45% growth in earnings year-over-year from 2021.
The Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate for Q1 sits at $17.3 billion, representing a year-over-year expansion in the top line of nearly 67%. Full-year sales estimates of $83 billion display an impressive 54% year-over-year revenue growth rate.
Peer Comparison
Let’s pivot away from TSLA and compare a peer making waves in the EV industry, Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) .
Over the last 60 days, analysts have been downwardly revising their Q1 EPS estimates for RIVN, causing the Consensus Estimate Trend to slip nearly 25% down to -$1.46 per share. Full-year EPS estimates for Rivian have also taken a hit; the Consensus Estimate Trend has retraced 24% down to -$6.31 per share.
Over its last four quarters, RIVN has an average EPS surprise in the negative at -9%, and in its latest quarterly report, Rivian missed estimates by nearly 54%. Rivian Automotive is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an overall VGM Score of an F.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Year-to-date, Tesla shares have shown a higher blend of defense than the general market, down 3.5% compared to the S&P 500’s decline of nearly 8%.
Month-to-date, the price action has been a little more unfavorable for the EV maker, with shares sliding nearly 4.5% in value compared to the S&P 500’s decline of 3.2%.
When comparing the share performance of TSLA and RIVN, there is a clear difference. Rivian Automotive shares have been slashed by 62% in value year-to-date.
TSLA, RIVN, S&P 500 Performance YTD
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
Rolling into Q1, estimates for Tesla are looking robust. Additionally, total car deliveries will once again shatter quarterly records in prior years.
With strong EV demand that is here to stay and a clearly established stance in the industry, Tesla seems to be fully charged. Investors should be wary of the high volatility nature Tesla shares carry, but that is the price paid for one of the best growth stories in history. Tesla is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an overall VGM Score of a B.
Image: Shutterstock
Charging Into Q1, Tesla Looks To Continue Historic Rise
It’s finally time for companies to pull back the curtain and unveil their highly-awaited 2022 Q1 results. It’s been rough sailing in the market year-to-date; soaring energy prices, supply-chain bottlenecks, and other economic restraints have all been pains in the neck for companies throughout the quarter.
Now that we’re in the midst of all the action, we have a vast selection of companies each day reporting Q1 results. One thrilling company that’s been a scorching-hot topic of conversation in the market over the past several years, Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , reports tomorrow on Wednesday after the bell rings.
We all know how exciting of a company Tesla is, pushing boundaries with world-changing technologies such as Electric Vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. The company’s earnings release is easily one of the most-watched out there, so let’s go ahead and dive into what analysts are forecasting for Q1.
Key Metric To Watch
A key metric to keep a close eye on in its Q1 report is the total amount of EVs delivered to customers. It’s vital to see just how many EVs Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) was able to deliver; it represents successful business operations from start to finish.
Tesla has a track record of surprising analysts within this metric. TSLA delivered nearly 309,000 EVs in its latest quarter, beating the 283,000 consensus delivery estimate easily by a solid 9%.
In fact, the EV manufacturer has had only one delivery miss over its last six quarters; the 201,300 deliveries in June 2021 fell short of the 202,900 consensus estimate by a marginal 0.8%. In this same six-quarter timeframe, the average delivery surprise has been a notable 3.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For Q1, the consensus estimate for total deliveries currently sits at approximately 298,500. On April 2nd, the company released its 2022 Q1 delivery results and confirmed that just over 310,000 EVs had been delivered, a new quarterly record for the company that easily beats the consensus estimate for the quarter by nearly 4%. I think it’s critical to recognize that TSLA surpassed expectations in a quarter that was overshadowed by volatility and supply-chain bottlenecks.
Overall, heading into Q1, Tesla’s total deliveries metric is once again looking robust and bodes well for the company’s shares. With robust EV demand and a track record of continuously shocking investors and analysts, it’s no surprise that the EV manufacturer is once again rolling into Q1 with new delivery records. Additionally, the 2022 Q1 delivery estimate reflects a stellar 67% year-over-year growth from 2021 Q1.
Model 3/Y
The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y have been wildly successful, with the Model 3 becoming both Tesla’s most popular model and the overall best-selling EV globally in 2020. With such powerful stances in the company’s product line, I think it’s essential to analyze the Model 3/Y delivery trend as well. It's important to note that the Model Y is built on the same chassis as the Model 3.
The Q1 consensus delivery estimate for the models currently sits at around 287,000. Flipping the pages back, Tesla has crushed the consensus delivery estimate in each quarter dating back to September 2020. In its latest Q4 report in December 2021, TSLA delivered close to 297,000 Model 3/Y’s, easily surpassing the 265,000 estimate by nearly 12%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS & Revenue
In its latest quarter, Tesla beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.11 per share by a solid 21% and reported EPS of $2.54. Additionally, the EV giant has acquired a double-digit average EPS surprise of 33% over its last four quarters. Rolling into Q1, TSLA has an Earnings ESP Score of 10.2%.
Analysts have been bullish for Q1 over the last 60 days, with all four estimate revisions hitting the tape being positive. The upward estimate revisions have caused the Q1 Consensus Estimate Trend to climb a notable 7.5% and reflect quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share. Furthermore, full-year 2022 estimates have inched up 3.5% to $9.83 per share in the same time frame.
Here’s where things get interesting – the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.16 per share for Q1 reflects a massive triple-digit year-over-year increase in earnings of 132%. Additionally, the full-year estimate for 2022 at $9.83 per share displays a sizable 45% growth in earnings year-over-year from 2021.
The Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate for Q1 sits at $17.3 billion, representing a year-over-year expansion in the top line of nearly 67%. Full-year sales estimates of $83 billion display an impressive 54% year-over-year revenue growth rate.
Peer Comparison
Let’s pivot away from TSLA and compare a peer making waves in the EV industry, Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) .
Over the last 60 days, analysts have been downwardly revising their Q1 EPS estimates for RIVN, causing the Consensus Estimate Trend to slip nearly 25% down to -$1.46 per share. Full-year EPS estimates for Rivian have also taken a hit; the Consensus Estimate Trend has retraced 24% down to -$6.31 per share.
Over its last four quarters, RIVN has an average EPS surprise in the negative at -9%, and in its latest quarterly report, Rivian missed estimates by nearly 54%. Rivian Automotive is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an overall VGM Score of an F.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Rivian Automotive, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Rivian Automotive, Inc. Quote
Recent Performance
Year-to-date, Tesla shares have shown a higher blend of defense than the general market, down 3.5% compared to the S&P 500’s decline of nearly 8%.
Month-to-date, the price action has been a little more unfavorable for the EV maker, with shares sliding nearly 4.5% in value compared to the S&P 500’s decline of 3.2%.
When comparing the share performance of TSLA and RIVN, there is a clear difference. Rivian Automotive shares have been slashed by 62% in value year-to-date.
TSLA, RIVN, S&P 500 Performance YTD
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
Rolling into Q1, estimates for Tesla are looking robust. Additionally, total car deliveries will once again shatter quarterly records in prior years.
With strong EV demand that is here to stay and a clearly established stance in the industry, Tesla seems to be fully charged. Investors should be wary of the high volatility nature Tesla shares carry, but that is the price paid for one of the best growth stories in history. Tesla is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an overall VGM Score of a B.
Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote