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Bear Of The Day: Autodesk (ADSK)

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Autodesk (ADSK - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) despite beating the bottom line estimate back at that end of May.  Since the earnings beat, the stock has been all over the place.  Let’s look at why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) in this Bear of the Day article.

Description

Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects. It sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

Earnings History

When I look at a stock, the first thing I do is look to see if the company is beating the number.  This tells me right away where the market’s expectations have been for the company and how management has communicated to the market.  A stock that consistently beats has management communicating expectations to Wall Street that can be achieved.  That is what you want to see.

In the case of ADSK, I see four straight beats of the  Zacks Consensus Estimate.   This alone does not make the stock a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and it doesn’t make it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) either.

The Zacks Rank does care about the earnings history, but it is much more heavily influenced by the movement of earnings estimates.

Earnings Estimates

The Zacks Rank tells us which stocks are seeing earnings estimates move higher or in this case lower.  For ADSK I see annual estimates moving lower.

The current year 2022 consensus number has dropped from $6.73 to $6.51 over the last 60 days.

The next year has dropped from $8.30 to $7.95 over the same time period.

Negative movement in earnings estimates like that is why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

It should be noted that a majority of stocks in the Zacks universe are seeing negative earnings estimate revisions.  That means that the stocks that are seeing small but negative earnings estimate revisions are falling to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

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