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Cruise Stocks Climb Amid Strong Booking Demand, Analyst Upgrades

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Momentum has begun to swarm in cruise stocks, as pent-up demand following the pandemic has now evolved into sustainable growth. Wall Street analysts have recently turned bullish on the sector, with one stock in particular benefitting from a flurry of upgrades.

With the tide smoothing over for cruise liners, is it time to hop aboard?

The Zacks Rundown

The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry group currently ranks in the top 28% out of more than 250 Zacks Ranked Industries.

Because this group is ranked in the top half of all industries, we expect it to continue to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has year-to-date with a 25.3% return:

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Also note the favorable metrics for this industry group below:

Zacks Investment Research

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Historical research studies suggest that approximately half of a stock’s price appreciation is due to its industry grouping. In fact, the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

It’s no secret that investing in stocks that are part of leading industry groups can give us a leg up relative to the market. By focusing on leading stocks within the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries, we can dramatically improve our stock-picking success.

Carnival Spikes After Analyst Upgrades

Carnival (CCL - Free Report) operates a fleet of more than 90 ships that visit approximately 700 ports. The company provides destination services under recognized brand names such as AIDA, Carnival, Costa, Princess, and Seabourn. Carnival sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites.

CCL shares surged more than 12% on Monday and were up another 2% early Tuesday morning, trading near a 13-month high following two separate analyst upgrades. Bank of America Securities analyst Andrew Didora raised his rating on Carnival stock to buy, while JPMorgan’s Matthew Boss turned his stance to overweight.

Didora noted that demand is trending higher, even surpassing pre-pandemic levels in certain areas. Improved booking trends, bundled package offerings, and increased advertising activities added to the positive sentiment. Both analysts raised their respective price targets.

CCL is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. Carnival appears to have turned the corner as it has now surpassed earnings estimates in each of the past two quarters. The company has seen its shares rise more than 80% this year.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The fundamentals are backing up the price movement. Revenues this year are expected to climb 72.2% to $20.95 billion. While Carnival is still expected to show a loss, earnings estimates are on the rise for FY 2024, with analysts bumping up their estimates by 2.7% in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is now $0.76/share, translating to a 355.83% increase relative to fiscal 2023 projections.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What the Zacks Model Unveils

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) seeks to find companies that have recently seen positive earnings estimate revision activity. The idea is that this recent information can serve as a more accurate predictor of the future, which can give investors a leg up during earnings season.

The technique has proven to be quite useful in finding positive surprises. In fact, when combining a Zacks Rank #3 or better with a positive Earnings ESP, stocks delivered a positive surprise 70% of the time according to our 10-year back test.

CCL is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and boasts a +2.86% Earnings ESP. Another beat may be in the cards when the company reports its fiscal Q2 results on June 23rd (estimated announcement date).

Carnival rival Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) advanced 2.57% on Monday and edged higher early Tuesday. The Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock has witnessed its share price rocket nearly 90% higher since the start of the year. RCL has exceeded earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, sporting an average 26.4% beat during that timeframe.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Analysts covering Royal Caribbean have increased their 2023 earnings estimates by 45.82% in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $4.71/share, reflecting potential growth of 162.8% relative to last year.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RCL also received a recent price target hike from Bank of America. Make sure to keep an eye on these cruise stocks as the waters appear calm.


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


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Carnival Corporation (CCL) - free report >>

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