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Market Leaders Rolling Over: Time to Rotate into Defensive Stocks?

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Although the stock market has rallied almost non-stop since the start of the year, cracks are beginning to form that indicate a correction may be nearing. Not that I am sounding the alarm for some severe bear market, but rather I would not be surprised to see a garden variety pullback of 5-10% over the next month or so.

One development that is bringing to my attention the possibility of a selloff is that a few market generals are seeing some considerable selling.

Namely, Apple (AAPL - Free Report) , Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , and Tesla (TSLA - Free Report)  are seeing some soft action. And though large swaths of the market, as well as the rest of the “Magnificent Seven” continue higher, I expect they may follow soon.

In the chart below we can see each of these stocks are underperforming the broad market and are negative YTD.

Based on this market activity, I think discerning investors would benefit from adding some defensive exposure to their portfolios.

TradingView
Image Source: TradingView

Healthcare

Two stocks that I have been recommending for the last few weeks are HCA Healthcare (HCA - Free Report)  and DaVita (DVA - Free Report) . Both stocks have steadily outperformed the market and should show persistent relative strength in the case of a selloff.

I particularly like healthcare stocks during periods of uncertainty, as the sector often shows low volatility and defensive characteristics.

Both DaVita and HCA Healthcare enjoy Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) ratings and are industry leading companies. HCA Healthcare is the largest investor-owned healthcare provider in the United States, operating a vast network of hospitals and outpatient facilities, while DaVita dominates the kidney dialysis care industry, and further expanded its reach in South America just this week.

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Image Source: TradingView

Furthermore, even though the stocks have made impressive gains both stocks still boast very reasonable valuations. With forward earnings multiples of 15.8x and 14.3x, they are both below or in line with their respective 10-year median valuations.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Insurance

The Progressive (PGR - Free Report)  is one of the nation’s leading auto insurers, and its stock has been on a tear, considerably outperforming the market. Progressive also has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating, reflecting strongly upward trending earnings revisions.

Current quarter earnings estimates have increased by 24.5% over the last two months, while FY24 have climbed by 11.2% and FY25 by 8.7%. The insurance industry broadly has benefited from the rise in cost of insurance, and Progressive has been one of the top beneficiaries.

TradingView
Image Source: TradingView

With strong sales are earnings growth forecasts you might expect PGR to have a premium valuation, however you can buy it now at a very fair price. The Progressive company is trading at a one year forward earnings multiple of 21.5x, and though that may not sound particularly cheap, it is based on EPS projections.

Earnings for the insurance provider are expected to grow 22% annually over the next 3-5 years, meaning PGR has a PEG ratio below 1. Based on the metric that is an appealing valuation.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

At some point the market will experience a selloff, whether its this week, next month or in six months. And while the exact timing of it will always be a challenge, most investors will not regret adding some of these defensive-oriented stocks to their portfolio.

Even better when they are already showing relative strength and have top Zacks Ranks.

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