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Bull Of The Day:MediaAlpha (MAX)

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MediaAlpha (MAX - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) that has an C for Value and an A for Growth.  This programmatic tech platform that specialized in vertical search and metasearch. The company recently posted a big beat and then sold 6.6M shares in an offering.  Let’s explore more about this company in this Bull of The Day article.

Description

MediaAlpha, Inc. is a marketing technology company that helps insurance carriers and distributors target and acquire customers through technology and data science. Its technology platform brings insurance carriers and consumers together through a real-time, programmatic, transparent, and results-driven ecosystem. The company was founded by Steven M. Yi, Eugene Nonko, and Ambrose Wang in June 2011 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, CA.

Earnings History

When I look at a stock, the first thing I do is look to see if the company is beating the number.  This tells me right away where the market’s expectations have been for the company and how management has communicated to the market.  A stock that consistently beats has management communicating expectations to Wall Street that can be achieved.  That is what you want to see.

For MediaAlpha, I see four straight beats of the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last year.  The average positive earnings surprise over the last year works out to be a positive 45%.

The most recent beat had the company posting a loss of 2 cents per share when a loss of 11 cents per share was expected.  That translates to a positive earning surprise of 81%.

Earnings Estimates Revisions

Earnings estimates revisions is what the Zacks Rank is all about. 

The consensus estimate for the current quarter jumped from a loss of 13 cents to a gain of 3 cents.

Next quarter has seen the consensus move from a loss of $0.12 to a gain of $0.04.

The full fiscal year 2024 estimate has moved from a loss of $0.40 to a loss of $0.04.

Next year has moved from a loss of $0.21 to a gain of $0.14.

Valuation

The forward PE multiple for MAX is currently an NA on the Zacks website, but if we extend the forward part of the equation out to 2025, the PE comes in at 142x.  A forward multiple that is as high as that would normally make investors blush, but the fact is the company is in the process of flipping from posting losses to posting gains.  There is little doubt that if the earnings surprises persist the estimate for 2025 will be much higher by the end of this year. The Zacks site also does not have a price to book multiple but does show a price to sales multiple of 3.6x. 


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