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Offensive Selling: How to Set Targets and Profit Using Fib Extensions

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Selling Stocks is Tougher Than Buying

Having talked with hundreds of clients and having been a part of the investing world and financial services for the better portion of two decades, I have discovered that most amateur investors focus most of their energy on the buy side of their investing systems. Though exceptions exist, most new investors are hyper-focused on finding the next hot stock that will double or triple in price while completely ignoring a sell strategy.

Regardless of experience, selling stocks is a far more challenging endeavor than buying them because:

1. Psychology: Due to “loss aversion” many investors hold onto cling to losing positions for too long, while selling winning stocks too soon.

2. No Plan or Strategy: Arbitrary selling is another issue. Many losing investors work off gut feel rather than implementing a sound selling strategy.

3. An “All or None” Mindset: All-or-nothing decisions levy unnecessary stress on traders. Conversely, incremental trading decreases risk and stress.

Base Structure Height Strategy

We will begin with the most straightforward strategy. To devise a price target in the base structure height strategy, take the high of the base, subtract the low, and add the difference to the high of the base. Using Nvidia’s ((NVDA - Free Report) ) last base structure, the investor would:

Record the high and low of the most recent base structure: $97.40, $75.61

Subtract the low from the high: 97.4 – 75.61= 21.79

Add the difference to the top of the base: 97.4 + 21.79

Price target = $119.91

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Microsoft’s ((MSFT - Free Report) ) 2024 breakout shows that large consolidations can lead to profitable breakouts.

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How to Use Fibonacci Extensions

The Fibonacci extension is a mathematical-based technical analysis tool used to project price targets. The Fibonacci method is my preferred tool to use for offensive selling for two reasons:

1. Flexibility: Fibs eliminate the need for all or none decisions by providing multiple target levels, allowing investors to pyramid out of stocks.

2. Reactive: Whether it is due to a “self-fulfilling prophecy” or not, the examples below show that price tends to react and “respect” key Fib levels.

Traders may each have unique ways of using fibs, but I use them as follows. Like the previous method, I draw extensions from the top of the base to the bottom. For targets, I use the 1.618% as my first trim area, 2.618% for my second target zone, and the 4.236% extreme extension for my remaining position (normally, I am out of most of my position by this time and only have runners left).

Understand that you can use Fibs for any time frame but I have found that they are the most powerful for long-term price targets. When you draw Fib extensions from the 2022 S&P 500 correction, the 1.618% lines up at about $558. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 Index ETF ((SPY - Free Report) ) paused and suffered a multi-week correction after reaching this level.

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Super Micro Computer ((SMCI - Free Report) ), one of the hottest AI stocks in 2024, illustrates the power of Fibs and scaling out of a position. The stock broke out in the high $300s, then soared to over $1,000 in a handful of months. However, since then, the stock has roundtripped all its gains, and “bag holders” have been punished.

Using my offensive selling method described above, traders would have sold in the mid $400s and high $500s, and made their final sale at about $780. Remember, the idea behind Fibs and investing in general is not to try to time a trend change perfectly and call tops, but instead, methodically scale out of positions and harvest winners.

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The best part of Fibs is that they work across assets and provide a trader with structure. Below is a MicroStrategy ((MSTR - Free Report) ) Fib example:

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Bottom Line

Offensive selling is an underrated skill set for investors to master. By leveraging offensive selling methods like Fib extensions, traders can learn to extract profits in their winning trades.


 

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