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Should Investors Chase the Surge in Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock?

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Surging back toward its 52-week highs, Exxon Mobil’s (XOM - Free Report)  stock is starting to turn heads after brewing tensions in the Middle East have spiked crude oil prices to over $70 a barrel again.

Outside the possibility of global oil supply chain issues, the rebound in the commodity price comes as OPEC+ had previously announced it would delay any production increases until December.  

As reported by CNN, some analysts believe crude prices could soar to $100 a barrel this month. While this could be worrisome to consumers at the pump, energy investors may ponder if now is a good time to buy stock in Houston-based oil behemoth Exxon.

Trading Economics
Image Source: Trading Economics

XOM Stock Rebound’s Sharply

Trading around $122 and less than 1% from its 52-week peak of $123.75 a share seen in April, Exxon’s stock has risen +7% in the last month.

More impressive, XOM is now sitting on +22% gains for the year. This has impressively topped its rival Chevron’s (CVX - Free Report)  +1% and the broader Zacks Oils and Energy Market’s +6% while also edging the S&P 500 benchmark.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Extending the rally, day traders were encouraged when XOM blew past its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $109 and retook its 50-day SMA of $113.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Monitoring Exxon’s Outlook

Following a tougher-to-compete-against year that saw crude prices at an average of $83 a barrel, Exxon’s annual earnings are now expected to dip -14% to $8.10 per share. However, fiscal 2025 EPS is projected to stabilize and rise 6%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Despite the dip in Exxon’s profitability, total sales are expected to be up 5% this year and are forecasted to rise another 4% in FY25 to $378.97 billion.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

XOM Stock Valuation Comparison (P/E)

At current levels, Exxon’s stock trades at 15X forward earnings compared to Chevron’s 13.7X with their Zacks Oil and Gas-Integrated-International Industry average at 11.3X.

XOM still trades beneath the S&P 500’s 24X forward earnings multiple and at a slight discount to its decade-long P/E median of 17.7X.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

Exxon Mobil’s stock lands a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Amid the spike in crude prices, long-term investors may certainly be propelled to hold XOM which has a very respectable 3.13% annual dividend yield. That said, more upside from here will depend on what is hopefully a trend of positive earnings estimate revisions in the coming weeks.


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