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Bull of the Day: Toast (TOST)

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Toast (TOST - Free Report) is a Zack Rank #1 (Strong Buy) that offers a cloud-based point-of-sale system for restaurants. The company provides tools for order management, payments, online ordering, and customer engagement, all aimed at streamlining restaurant operations.

The stock has soared to multi-year highs this month following an earnings report that exceeded expectations. Now up over 100% for 2024, investor interest remains strong as many continue to bet on the stock’s ongoing upward momentum.

About the Company

Toast, founded in 2011 and headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, is valued at approximately $22 billion and employs around 5,500 people.

With its point-of-sale (POS) system as the core, Toast simplifies day-to-day operations for restaurants, enabling seamless transaction processing, order tracking, and kitchen communication.

Its platform also includes features for managing employee payroll, tips, and scheduling, as well as robust reporting and analytics tools to help restaurants drive data-driven decisions.

Toast has expanded to include online ordering, delivery integrations, and marketing solutions, helping restaurants optimize their operations and grow revenue in a competitive market.

The stock has a Zacks Style Score of “A” in Growth and Momentum. However, the stock has a “F” in Value.

Q3 Earnings Beat

On November 7th, the company reported a 600% EPS beat and raised its FY guidance.

Q3 EPS came in at $0.07 v the $0.01 expected, while revenues were $1.31B v the $1.29B expected.

The company raised FY24 adjusted EBIOTDA to $352M up from $285-$305M. Non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit $1.40-1.41B (+32-33% y/y), which was up from the 1.36B (+27-29% y/y) prior.  

Gross Payment Volume was up 24% y/y, while annual Recurring Revenue was up 28% y/y. Total locations were +28% y/y, up to 127k.

Management comments were overwhelmingly bullish:

“Toast delivered a strong third quarter, adding approximately 7,000 net new locations, growing our recurring gross profit streams 35%, and achieving Adjusted EBITDA of $113 million. We are well positioned to finish out the year strong and carry this momentum into 2025.”

Estimates Headed Higher

Analysts are bullish as well, lifting estimates and price targets since the earnings report.

For the current quarter, earnings estimates doubled, going from $0.01 to $0.02.

For the current year, estimates also improved, going from a loss of $0.10 to a loss of only $0.07.

For the next year, the bottom line moves into the black. Analysts now see $0.33, which is up 18% from the $0.28 expected before earnings.

Toast, Inc. Price and Consensus

Toast, Inc. Price and Consensus

Toast, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Toast, Inc. Quote

With the big beat and guide higher, analysts are lifting their price targets.

JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating on Toast and raised its price target from $28 to $36. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating, increasing its target from $33 to $45. Meanwhile, Wedbush kept an Outperform rating, adjusting the price target from $35 to $45.

The Technical Take

The stock is on the verge of a clear breakout, hitting levels not seen since 2021. The company IPO’d that year, trading all the way up to $69. However, it was straight down from there, with TOST making a low under $12 back in 2022.

After trading sideways for the last couple years, the stock has broken the technical resistance between $27-30 and surged higher.

With the stock at $40, investors might be hesitant to chase, so let us look at some levels to buy on a pullback.

Post earnings low: $36

Gap fill: $33

21-day: $32

50-day: $29.20

200-day: $25.20

Fibonacci buy zone (50%-61.8% retracements): $29.70-$32

While that 200-day might be out of reach, investors could start to build positions at those higher levels.

In Summary

Toast (TOST - Free Report) is emerging as a leader in the restaurant technology space, capitalizing on its impressive growth trajectory and strong market momentum.

The company's recent earnings beat, upwardly revised guidance, and expanding footprint reflect its ability to deliver value across restaurant operations, from order management to financial analytics.

As Toast looks to carry its growth into 2025, it remains a stock to watch for those betting on the future of digital transformation in the restaurant industry.


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