We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
MSTR Stock Trade Review (Or How to Gain 257.42% in 2 Months)
Read MoreHide Full Article
The Path to Profitability on Wall Street
Because the future is uncertain and unpredictable, market participants must understand that only some trades will work out in their favor. That said, savvy investors understand that if they can cut their losers and catch a few winners, the straightforward math behind successful investing will work in their favor in the long run. Billionaire investing legend Paul Tudor Jones said it best when describing his reward-to-risk ratio:
PTJ on his 5/1 risk/reward protocol:
“Five to one means I’m risking one dollar to make five. What five to one does is allow you to have a hit ratio of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of the time, and I’m still not going to lose.” ~Paul Tudor Jones
In other words, investors should focus on finding a few big winners each year and cut their losses when incorrect.
Want to Find Future Winners? Study Past Winners
Of course, every investor wants to find big winners. Nevertheless, most investors fail to find big winners because the fail to study the past. While the future is always uncertain, history doesn’t always repeat but tends to rhyme. That’s why famous growth investor William O’Neil kept a “Model Book” of past winners and why legendary investor Jesse Livermore said the following:
“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” ~Jesse Livermore
MicroStrategy Trade Review
In case you don’t know, I run the “Technology Innovators” premium service for Zacks. Today, we will review my top trade of 2024. On September 23rd, I sent an alert to buy MicroStrategy ((MSTR - Free Report) ) at $149.86. We sold MSTR roughly two months later, on November 21st, at $535.63 for a gain of 257.42%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The purpose of this article is not to brag, but instead to show the thought process behind a winning trade so that it can hopefully be replicated.
About MSTR
For years, Michael Saylor had been concerned that the monetary system has been expanding by approximately 7% per year while inflation tends to rise about 2% annually. In late 202, Michael Saylor, MSTR’s founder and former CEO decided to take action and adopt what he refers to as “The Bitcoin Standard.”
“What we (MSTR - Free Report) were doing was that were inverting the balance sheet such that we’re floating on a Bitcoin sail, on a crypto sail if you will, and as the liquidity and the monetary system get pumped up, we want it to float, rather than sink, on that pool of liquidity.” ~Michael Saylor
Takeaway: Look for disruptors and companies doing something innovative in growing industries.
Image Source: FactSet
Bullish Catalysts for MSTR Stock
Bitcoin and MSTR had been criticized for years, but the narrative and landscape were changing. Bullish catalysts included:
· Real-world use: More international citizens in countries like Argentina and Turker are using Bitcoin to stave off hyper-inflation than ever before. At the time, Bitcoin (in dollar terms) was well off its highs, but was printing fresh highs against Argentina and Turkey’s currencies – a sign that global real-world adoptions are real.
· Institutional Adoption: Some of the world’s largest asset managers were entering the industry with ETFs. For example, Blackrock ((BLK - Free Report) ) debuted the iShares Bitcoin ETF ((IBIT - Free Report) ), and Fidelity’s Fidelity Wise Origin BTC ETF ((FBTC - Free Report) ) began trading.
· Regulatory Clarity: Industry leaders like Coinbase ((COIN - Free Report) ) began racking up legal wins in their fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Takeaway: Look for industry tailwinds and catalysts that can act as rocket fuel for your stock’s price.
Without bullish price action, no trade exists (in my experience). Here are three bullish attributes we had at the time we bought:
1. A Strong Prior Uptrend: The easiest way to find the next stock to double is to look for stocks that already have. MSTR shares ripped from $50 to $200 early in 2024.
2. A Long Base Structure: As the old Wall Street adage goes, “The longer the base, the higher in space.” When we bought the stock, MSTR was on the brink of breaking out from a seven-month long base.
3. Relative Price Strength: MSTR exhibited standout relative strength compared to Bitcoin. For example, in April, BTC was $66k and $MSTR was $133. In September BTC was again at $66k but MSTR shares traded at $176. Even when BTC made lower lows, MSTR made higher highs – a subtle sign of strength.
Image Source: TradingView
Blow-off Top = Sell!
Selling is usually more complex than buying, which rang true in this case. MSTR shares were increasing rapidly daily, and selling wasn’t easy. However, MSTR flashed classic signs of a blow-off top in November, including:
1. Fibonacci Extension: MSTR soared to the extreme 4.236% fib extension, which often coincides with tops.
2. Distance from 200-day MA: An excessive distance above the 200-day moving average can mean an overly frothy move. At the time we sold MSTR shares were a nosebleed 201% above the 200-day moving average.
3. Massive volume: Volume matched the excessiveness witnessed in price. Turnover exceeded the 50-day average for twelve straight sessions, and MSTR trading even exceeded that of Nvidia ((NVDA - Free Report) ) and Tesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ).
4. Larger Point Spreads: MSTR traded near $50 early in the year. By the time we sold, 50-point moves in a day were common – a sign of irrational exuberance.
Image Source: TradingView
Takeaway: Study past moves to learn sell signals, such as the climax top. Remember to sell when you can, not when you have to.
Bottom Line
Studying past stock market winners can help you to spot the next one. MicroStrategy’s 2024 move was one for the books.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Shutterstock
MSTR Stock Trade Review (Or How to Gain 257.42% in 2 Months)
The Path to Profitability on Wall Street
Because the future is uncertain and unpredictable, market participants must understand that only some trades will work out in their favor. That said, savvy investors understand that if they can cut their losers and catch a few winners, the straightforward math behind successful investing will work in their favor in the long run. Billionaire investing legend Paul Tudor Jones said it best when describing his reward-to-risk ratio:
PTJ on his 5/1 risk/reward protocol:
“Five to one means I’m risking one dollar to make five. What five to one does is allow you to have a hit ratio of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of the time, and I’m still not going to lose.” ~Paul Tudor Jones
In other words, investors should focus on finding a few big winners each year and cut their losses when incorrect.
Want to Find Future Winners? Study Past Winners
Of course, every investor wants to find big winners. Nevertheless, most investors fail to find big winners because the fail to study the past. While the future is always uncertain, history doesn’t always repeat but tends to rhyme. That’s why famous growth investor William O’Neil kept a “Model Book” of past winners and why legendary investor Jesse Livermore said the following:
“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” ~Jesse Livermore
MicroStrategy Trade Review
In case you don’t know, I run the “Technology Innovators” premium service for Zacks. Today, we will review my top trade of 2024. On September 23rd, I sent an alert to buy MicroStrategy ((MSTR - Free Report) ) at $149.86. We sold MSTR roughly two months later, on November 21st, at $535.63 for a gain of 257.42%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The purpose of this article is not to brag, but instead to show the thought process behind a winning trade so that it can hopefully be replicated.
About MSTR
For years, Michael Saylor had been concerned that the monetary system has been expanding by approximately 7% per year while inflation tends to rise about 2% annually. In late 202, Michael Saylor, MSTR’s founder and former CEO decided to take action and adopt what he refers to as “The Bitcoin Standard.”
“What we (MSTR - Free Report) were doing was that were inverting the balance sheet such that we’re floating on a Bitcoin sail, on a crypto sail if you will, and as the liquidity and the monetary system get pumped up, we want it to float, rather than sink, on that pool of liquidity.” ~Michael Saylor
Takeaway: Look for disruptors and companies doing something innovative in growing industries.
Image Source: FactSet
Bullish Catalysts for MSTR Stock
Bitcoin and MSTR had been criticized for years, but the narrative and landscape were changing. Bullish catalysts included:
· Real-world use: More international citizens in countries like Argentina and Turker are using Bitcoin to stave off hyper-inflation than ever before. At the time, Bitcoin (in dollar terms) was well off its highs, but was printing fresh highs against Argentina and Turkey’s currencies – a sign that global real-world adoptions are real.
· Institutional Adoption: Some of the world’s largest asset managers were entering the industry with ETFs. For example, Blackrock ((BLK - Free Report) ) debuted the iShares Bitcoin ETF ((IBIT - Free Report) ), and Fidelity’s Fidelity Wise Origin BTC ETF ((FBTC - Free Report) ) began trading.
· Regulatory Clarity: Industry leaders like Coinbase ((COIN - Free Report) ) began racking up legal wins in their fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Takeaway: Look for industry tailwinds and catalysts that can act as rocket fuel for your stock’s price.
MSTR’s Bullish Technical Pattern & Relative Strength
Without bullish price action, no trade exists (in my experience). Here are three bullish attributes we had at the time we bought:
1. A Strong Prior Uptrend: The easiest way to find the next stock to double is to look for stocks that already have. MSTR shares ripped from $50 to $200 early in 2024.
2. A Long Base Structure: As the old Wall Street adage goes, “The longer the base, the higher in space.” When we bought the stock, MSTR was on the brink of breaking out from a seven-month long base.
3. Relative Price Strength: MSTR exhibited standout relative strength compared to Bitcoin. For example, in April, BTC was $66k and $MSTR was $133. In September BTC was again at $66k but MSTR shares traded at $176. Even when BTC made lower lows, MSTR made higher highs – a subtle sign of strength.
Image Source: TradingView
Blow-off Top = Sell!
Selling is usually more complex than buying, which rang true in this case. MSTR shares were increasing rapidly daily, and selling wasn’t easy. However, MSTR flashed classic signs of a blow-off top in November, including:
1. Fibonacci Extension: MSTR soared to the extreme 4.236% fib extension, which often coincides with tops.
2. Distance from 200-day MA: An excessive distance above the 200-day moving average can mean an overly frothy move. At the time we sold MSTR shares were a nosebleed 201% above the 200-day moving average.
3. Massive volume: Volume matched the excessiveness witnessed in price. Turnover exceeded the 50-day average for twelve straight sessions, and MSTR trading even exceeded that of Nvidia ((NVDA - Free Report) ) and Tesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ).
4. Larger Point Spreads: MSTR traded near $50 early in the year. By the time we sold, 50-point moves in a day were common – a sign of irrational exuberance.
Image Source: TradingView
Takeaway: Study past moves to learn sell signals, such as the climax top. Remember to sell when you can, not when you have to.
Bottom Line
Studying past stock market winners can help you to spot the next one. MicroStrategy’s 2024 move was one for the books.