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Bear of the Day: LGI Homes (LGIH)

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LGI Homes ((LGIH - Free Report) ) is a Texas-based homebuilder specializing in entry-level homes across key Sunbelt states, including Texas, Arizona, Florida, and Georgia. These markets thrived during the pandemic-era migration boom, but have since cooled significantly.

After a surge in home prices from 2020 to 2022, many of these regions are now seeing price declines and weaker demand. As a result, LGI Homes has experienced slower sales growth and underwhelming stock performance. Analyst sentiment has also turned more cautious, with earnings estimates trending lower and continued pressure on the share price.

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LGI Homes Sees Falling Earnings Estimates

The trend in earnings estimates has been falling since mid-2022 and over the last 30 days has again turned lower. Current quarterly earnings estimates have dropped 48.6% over that time and current year earnings estimates have fallen by 16.4% over the same period.

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LGIH Shares Trade at Fair Valuation

Currently, LGI Homes is trading at a one year forward earnings multiple of 8.4x, which is below its 10-year median multiple of 10.2x, but above the industry average of 6.3x. While this is a reasonable valuation, earnings and sales growth for this year is still quite tepid.

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Should Investors Avoid LGIH Stock?

LGI Homes has faced challenges in the post-COVID housing market, as the once red-hot regions it operates in have cooled significantly. While the company could become attractive again once these markets complete their corrections, the timing of that recovery remains uncertain.

LGIH is a fundamentally solid business going through a difficult period, but for now, it's best to stay on the sidelines until the earnings revision trend starts to turn upward.


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