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Bear of the Day: Boise Cascade Co. (BCC)

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Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood, along with wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada.  

The company manufactures veneer lumber and laminated beams, as well as I-joists for residential and commercial flooring and roofing systems. Boise Cascade also distributes a line of building materials such as siding, composite decking, insulation, and metal products.

Based in Boise, Idaho, the company markets and sells its products to wholesalers, dealers, home improvement centers, and specialty distributors for use in the construction of new residential homes, existing housing, and industrial and commercial buildings.

The wood product manufacturer faces several headwinds. Earnings and revenue trends remain negative as the company struggles to adjust to shrinking demand. Price pressures within engineered wood products are making things more difficult for Boise Cascade. An uptick in raw materials, labor, and manufacturing costs represents another threat to the company’s prospects.

The Zacks Rundown

A Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock, Boise Cascade (BCC - Free Report) is a component of the Zacks Building Products - Wood industry group, which currently ranks in the bottom 15% out of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. As such, we expect this industry group as a whole to underperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has over the past year:

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Also note that stocks in this group are relatively overvalued and are also projected to experience below-average earnings growth:

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks in the bottom tiers of industries can often be intriguing short candidates. While individual stocks have the ability to outperform even when they’re part of a lagging industry, the inclusion in a weaker group serves as a headwind for any potential rallies and the journey forward is that much more difficult.

Along with many other building product stocks, BCC shares have been underperforming over the past year. The stock is hitting a series of lower lows and represents a compelling short opportunity as we head further into 2025.

Recent Earnings Misses & Deteriorating Outlook

Boise Cascade has fallen short of earnings estimates in two of the past three quarters. Just last month, the company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.78 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by -2.2%.

The building materials distributor has posted an average earnings miss of -1.95% over the last two quarters. Consistently falling short of earnings estimates is a recipe for underperformance, and BCC is no exception.

The company has been on the receiving end of negative earnings estimate revisions as of late. Looking at the current quarter, analysts have slashed estimates by a whopping -36.65% in the past 60 days. The Q1 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate is now $1.40 per share, reflecting negative growth of -46.36% relative to the year-ago period. Sales are projected to fall -11.63% year-over-year to $1.45 billion.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Falling earnings estimates are a huge red flag and need to be respected. Negative growth year-over-year is the type of trend that bears like to see.

Technical Outlook

As illustrated below, BCC stock is in a sustained downtrend. Notice how the stock has made a series of lower lows, widely underperforming the major indices. Also note that shares are trading below downward-sloping 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages – another good sign for the bears.

StockCharts
Image Source: StockCharts

BCC stock has experienced what is known as a “death cross,” whereby the stock’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. Shares would have to make an outsized move to the upside and show increasing earnings estimate revisions to warrant taking any long positions. The stock has fallen nearly 15% this year alone.

Final Thoughts

A deteriorating fundamental and technical backdrop show that this stock is not set to make its way to new highs anytime soon. The fact that BCC is included in one of the worst-performing industry groups provides yet another headwind to a long list of concerns. A history of earnings misses and falling future earnings estimates will likely serve as a ceiling to any potential rallies, nurturing the stock’s downtrend.

Boise Cascade is likely to suffer from uncertainties surrounding the U.S. housing market, which are expected to continue given consumer affordability concerns and lingering inflationary pressures.

Potential investors may want to give this stock the cold shoulder, or perhaps include it as part of a short or hedge strategy. Bulls will want to steer clear of BCC until the situation shows major signs of improvement.


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