S&P And Nasdaq Make New All-Time Highs, All Eyes On Today's Inflation Report And FOMC Announcement
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, once again, both closed higher yesterday, and set another new all-time high and close in the process.
Apple soared 7.26% after they announced their plan, the day before, for rolling out AI for their devices. It will be available in the fall when they release their iOS 18 and macOS Sequoia. But will only be available for the most current device models such as the iPhone 15 series with A17 Pro Chips, and iPad and Mac users with the M1 chip or later.
Apple investors and iPhone watchers are hoping the release of these new AI features, especially since they appear to be aimed at only those with new devices, will nudge those with earlier models to upgrade into new ones, and jumpstart flat to falling iPhone sales.
It was not just Apple gaining yesterday. Other big-tech names rallied as well as the AI boom continues to drive the market.
All eyes will be on this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. The last CPI report (retail inflation) showed the core rate (ex-food & energy) at 3.6% y/y vs. the previous month's 3.8%. For today's report, the headline numbers are expected to come in at 0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.3% pace, while the y/y rate is expected to come in at 3.4%, in line with last month. The core rate is expected to be up 0.3% m/m, just like last month, while the y/y rate is expected to fall slightly to 3.5% vs. last month's 3.6%.
Then in the afternoon, the focus will shift to the FOMC Announcement, followed by the customary Fed Chair Press Conference. Nobody is expecting the Fed to cut rates today. Or at their July meeting either. But most are expecting the Fed to begin cutting rates as early as September or possibly November.
However, many Fed watchers came into the year expecting as many as 4-5 cuts. Now expectations are for 2-3. And a fair number of people are saying just 1 or none. So every word written in the announcement will be scrutinized, as will every word uttered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his press conference, in an effort to discern what the Fed is thinking in terms of cuts and timelines.
The CPI comes out at 8:30 AM ET. The FOMC Announcement comes out at 2:00 PM. And the Fed Chair Press Conference starts at 2:30 PM.
As I mentioned yesterday, the market has been doing fine without the Fed. And it's easy to see why. With a resilient economy, a strong jobs market, upward trending sales and earnings estimates, and household incomes remaining near record highs, it gives the market plenty of reason to keep moving higher.
And those factors should remain in place for a while, even after today's reports.
See you tomorrow,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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