Back to top

View the PFP Archive

Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the S&P and Nasdaq falling by -0.88% and -1.95% respectively, while the small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 soared by 3.57% and 2.45%.
Kevin Matras   
Profit from the Pros
By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research
  

Stocks End Mixed, Small-Caps Soar After Better Than Expected CPI Inflation, PPI On Deck This Morning

Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the S&P and Nasdaq falling by -0.88% and -1.95% respectively, while the small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 soared by 3.57% and 2.45%.

Yesterday's better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report showed headline inflation falling by -0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.0% and views for 0.1%. The y/y rate came in at 3.0% vs. last month's 3.3% and estimates for 3.1%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 0.1% vs. last month's 0.2% and the consensus for 0.2% as well. The y/y rate was at 3.3% vs. last month's 3.4% and views for 3.5%.

Not only did it show inflation continuing to ease, but it fell even more than expected, with some now speculating that the Fed might even have room to cut 2 times this year rather than just the 1 time they currently foresee.

The price action yesterday was interesting. The S&P and Nasdaq, which have been powered higher by the big-tech/AI trade, took a breather yesterday. But that respite appears to have allowed the small and mid-caps, which have severely lagged the aforementioned indexes this year, to shine. And yesterday's inflation report, which could mean the Fed is able to cut rates sooner rather than later, and maybe by more than expected, helped ignite a surge in those smaller capitalized names, which is likely more important to those companies than the larger ones.

There was talk previously of a possible rotation beginning to take place. Then the larger-cap indexes soared even more, and talk of rotation faded. But the rotation talk is back on the table. And with a little bit of follow-through, it might actually happen. I'm not suggesting in the least that the big-tech/AI trade is over. This is a multi-year trade that will likely last for years. But there's room for this bull market to expand. And seeing the other cap-sizes respond is a good thing for the market.

In other news, Weekly Jobless Claims fell by -17,000 to 222,000 vs. estimates for 239,000. The smoother 4-week moving average, however, came in at 233.50K vs. last week's 238.75K.

Today we'll get another look at inflation with the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report. The consensus is calling for the headline number to be up 0.1% m/m vs. last month's -0.2%, while the y/y rate rises to 2.3% vs. last month's 2.2%. The core rate is expected to be up 0.2% m/m, with the y/y rate coming in at 2.3%, in line with last month's pace for the same.

We'll also get the Consumer Sentiment report.

And we'll get earnings reports from several of the big banks today including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, before the open, to name a few.

With one more day to go, all of the major indexes are up for the week, expect for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. But they are less than 0.50% away from another green arrow for the week. If so, that would make it 6 up weeks in a row. If not, the streak ends at 5. But what a streak it's been. And regardless, I'm expecting another one to unfold soon.

With a new earnings season upon us, that could be just around the corner since stocks typically go up during earnings season.

Best,

Kevin Matras

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

Sponsor

Buy These Stocks BEFORE They Report Earnings

earnings estimate revisions development timeline
Next week, 233 companies are scheduled to report earnings. What if you could know in advance which few would shock Wall Street by beating earnings expectations and pop in price?

Now you can.

Zacks proprietary "ESP" formula predicts positive earnings surprises with unthinkable 80% accuracy. That doesn't mean we make money 80% of the time, but recent picks were closed for gains of +49.8%, +39.9% and +28.5% in as little as 4 days.

What stocks is the system picking today? Find out before doors close to new investors at midnight Sunday, July 14.

See Surprise Stocks Now >>

Most Popular Articles from Zacks.com

Image: Bigstock

Is Thursday's Market Rotation Here to Stay?

With the markets clearly showing that the market roation is finally here, investors should be mindful that small caps and other beaten-down market areas will likely outperform in the coming months. Read More »

Image: Bigstock

Small Cap Breakout: Can it Finally Stick?

Lower inflation means lower interest rates - a bullish sign for small-cap stocks into year-end. Read More »

Image: Bigstock

Goldman Sachs (GS) Pre Q2 Earnings: To Buy or Stay Clear

Goldman has a decent earnings surprise history outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, with and average surprise of 22.78%. Read More »

Image: Shutterstock

3 Top Breakout Stocks to Keep on Your Radar: BRFS, PBI, EBC

BRF, Pitney Bowes and Eastern Bankshares are the breakout stocks offering the prospect of remarkable gains. Read More »

Image: Bigstock

U.S. Still the Cornerstone to Global Growth: Zacks July Strategy

With goods price inflation in our rear view, the remaining stubborn U.S. rent inflation, in y/y terms, is what is now running along at +3.36% y/y. Read More »

Sponsor

Your Exclusive Access to Today's Top ETFs

Use Zacks ETF Rank to help you select the very best ETFs for your portfolio. This quantitative ratings system takes into account asset class forecasts as well as several ETF-specific factors. All to give you a comprehensive account of a fund's potential before you invest your money.

See Today's Top-Ranked ETFs »

Image: Bigstock

Bull of the Day: Park Hotels & Resorts (PK)

This lodging REIT offers value and a healthy dividend. Read More »

New Zacks Strong Buys for July 12th

Here are 5 stocks added to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) List today. Read More »

 

Download our app for convenient on-the-go access to even more—daily and weekly newsletters published by Zacks experts, proprietary research and tools, and Portfolio Tracker on Zacks.com.

Download our Zacks App for Apple iOS
Download our Zacks App for Android

Visit Success Stories to hear how Zacks research, tools and portfolios help our members outperform the market.