Stocks Closed Mixed Yesterday, NVIDIA Reports Earnings After The Close Today
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Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the big 3 indexes (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) ending modestly higher, while the small-cap Russell 2000 and the mid-cap S&P 400 ended moderately lower.
The major indexes continue to hover near their recent highs from last month.
But the rebound off their respective pullback/correction lows has been a bit uneven. The Dow has already eclipsed their recent high close on Monday, and again yesterday, putting it 0.13% above it. The S&P, however, still has another 0.73% to go. And the Nasdaq has another 4.79% to go. The Russell 2000 and S&P 400 have another 2.68% and 1.28% to go, respectively.
Yet they are all within striking distance of breaking out to new highs.
Yesterday's Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.6% m/m (unadjusted) vs. last month's 1.0%. The y/y rate was up 6.5% vs. last month's 6.8% and views for 6.9%. This shows home prices hit another record high, and marks the fourth month in a row of hitting a new high.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to -19 vs. last month's -17.
But Consumer Confidence rose to 103.3 vs. last month's upwardly revised 101.9 (from 100.3) and the consensus for 100.1. Always an important indicator. Since roughly 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending, a confident consumer goes hand in hand with a spending consumer, which is a big part of economic growth.
Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications and the Survey of Business Uncertainty.
We'll also hear from Federal Reserve Board Governor, Christopher Waller, and President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, as they speak at their engagements throughout the day.
What everybody is really waiting for, however, is earnings from semiconductor giant NVIDIA after the close. They are one of the Magnificent 7 stocks, and the best performer of the bunch with an outsized gain this year, so far, of over 159%.
After that, the market will pivot to Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Even though the annual core rate is expected to tick up by one-tenth of a percent to 2.7%, that's unlikely to interfere with the Fed's plans to cut rates when they meet again on September 17-18. Especially after "the vast majority" of participants at the last Fed meeting were leaning towards cutting rates in September, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying just last week that "the time has come for policy to adjust." Nonetheless, every data point is important and could help shape what happens after September.
Note, next Monday, 9/2 is Labor Day, which means the markets will be closed on Monday.
So, even though next week will be a shortened trading week, we could see bit of extra volatility at the end of this week as investors square up positions ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend.
In the meantime, there's three whole trading days left this week, and investors will be kept busy.
See you tomorrow,
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Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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