Stocks Were Up On Friday, Dow And S&P Were Up For The Week
Stocks closed higher on Friday and mixed for the week. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 were up for the week, making it 3 weeks in a row for each. The Dow actually made a new all-time high and close in the process. The Nasdaq was down for the week, but by less than 1 percent. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the mid-cap S&P 400 also missed the mark, but not by much as they were off by just 0.05% and 0.15% respectively.
Friday's slightly better than expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, helped buoy the market. The headline rate was up 0.2% m/m vs. last month's 0.1%, but in line with estimates. The y/y rate was up 2.5%, in line with last month's pace and the consensus. The core rate (ex-food and energy) was up 0.2% m/m, in line with last month's pace and estimates. The y/y rate came in at 2.6%, in line with last month, but just under expectations for 2.7%.
While nobody is expecting the PCE index to alter the Fed's widely anticipated rate cut on September 18, the continuing progress on inflation does bode well for more rate cuts to follow in November and maybe even December.
But attention will shift to the labor market with Friday's (9/6) Employment Situation report. With the inflation risk receding, the Fed has now become more concerned with the jobs market. So all eyes will be on that come Friday.
In other news, the Chicago PMI rose to 46.1 vs. last month's 45.3 and views for 46.4.
And Consumer Sentiment rose to 67.9 vs. last month's 67.8 and estimates for 67.9. The year-ahead inflation expectations (which is also part of that report), came in at 2.8%, which was just under last month's 2.9% and views for the same.
We've got plenty of economic reports on deck this week, including the ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending today; Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders tomorrow; and the ADP Employment report and the ISM Services Index on Thursday.
Earnings season is largely behind us. But there's still another 158 companies in queue to report this week. That includes Zscaler today; Copart, Hewlett Packard, DICK'S Sporting Goods and Casy's General Stores tomorrow; Broadcom, Samsara and Toro on Thursday; and ABM industries, Genesco and Big Lots on Friday.
All of the major indexes are within striking distance of their recent highs from July. (Although, the Dow has already eclipsed theirs.)
And it shouldn't take much to see them all extend their gains as we head into the next FOMC Announcement on 9/18 (roughly 2½ weeks from today).
Market momentum is on the upside. And the fundamentals and earnings are supportive of that.
And that bodes well for the market.
See you tomorrow,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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