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Stocks closed higher across the board yesterday, led by the Nasdaq's 1.30% gain.
Kevin Matras   
Profit from the Pros
By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research
  

Stocks End Higher Yesterday, Dow, S&P 500 And Nasdaq At New All-Time Highs

Stocks closed higher across the board yesterday, led by the Nasdaq's 1.30% gain.

The big three indexes also made new all-time highs and closes.

Big gains in Salesforce (up 10.99%) and Marvell Technology (up 23.19%) yesterday, after they reported earnings on Tuesday after the close, helped buoy stocks.

So did a weaker-than-expected ADP Employment report, which showed private payrolls up 146,000 for November vs. the consensus for 165,000. Additionally, October's numbers were revised down to 184,000 vs. the original reporting of 233,000.

The lower job tally (although, still fine enough) was seen as supportive for another rate cut when the Fed next meets on 12/17-18. It was a solid number, which staves off recession talk, but not so robust where people begin speculating about an overheated economy. As such, the expectation for another 25 basis point cut in two weeks looks intact.

The CME's FedWatch Tool now shows the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at 77.5%. That has been steadily ratcheting up over the last couple of weeks when it was as low as just 60.8% on 11/20.

In other news yesterday, MBA Mortgage Applications were up 2.8% w/w with purchases up 5.6%, and refi's off -0.6%.

The PMI Composite report showed the Composite Index at 54.9 vs. last month's 55.3 and views for the same. The Services Index was at 56.1 vs. last month's 57.0 and views for the same as well.

The ISM Services Index slipped to 52.1 vs. last month's 56.0 and estimates for 55.5.

Factory Orders rose 0.2% m/m vs. last month's -0.2% pace and the consensus for 0.4%.

And the Beige Book report showed "economic activity rose slightly" in most districts, and that businesses "expressed optimism that demand will rise in the coming month."

That assessment was in line with what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York, NY. In fact, he sounded even more positive on the economy, saying it was in "very good shape."

While he also said the Fed can proceed "cautiously" when cutting rates, markets appeared nonplussed by that, believing another one is coming in December anyway.

Nonetheless, the Fed insists it will be data dependent. And that's why all eyes will be on Friday's Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). At the moment, the consensus is calling for 200,000 nonfarm payrolls in the month of November (200K in the private sector and 0 in the public). That would be higher than yesterday's ADP report, which estimated 146,000 private sector jobs. And well above last month's BLS numbers which showed private payrolls falling by -28,000.

But before that, we'll get two other jobs reports today with the Challenger Job-Cut Report and the Weekly Jobless Claims Report.

Although, Friday's jobs report is the main event.

With two more trading days to go, the big three indexes are all on pace to close higher for the week. That would make it 3 up weeks in a row.

The small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 have a bit of catching up to do to get in the green this week. But it won't take much as they are very close.

With plenty of optimism for a strong year-end rally, it looks like all of the indexes are poised to finish the year on an even stronger note.

See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

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