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Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Dow and the S&P 500 finishing modestly in the green, while the Nasdaq, small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 were in the red.
Kevin Matras   
Profit from the Pros
By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research
  

Stocks Closed Mixed Yesterday, All Eyes On This Morning's CPI Inflation Report

Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Dow and the S&P 500 finishing modestly in the green, while the Nasdaq, small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 were in the red.

Earnings season continues. Yesterday, before the open, Coca-Cola posted a positive EPS surprise of 7.84%, and a positive sales surprise of 8.01%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 12.2% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 6.36%. They rallied 4.73% in the regular session on the news.

Shopify also reported before the open yesterday and reported earnings in line with expectations, and a positive sales surprise of 3.26%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 29.4%, and a sales growth of 31.3%. They were up 3.08% yesterday.

After the close, DoorDash reported earnings and posted a negative EPS surprise of -2.94%, but a positive sales surprise of 1.35%. That represented a quarterly EPS growth rate of 15.4%, and a sales growth of 24.8%. They were up 0.24% in the regular session before earnings, and up more than 6% in after-hours trade following earnings.

Today we'll hear from another 265 companies on deck to report earnings including CVS Health and the CME Group before the open, and Cisco, AppLovin and Robinhood after the close.

In other news, the markets had a relatively muted response to President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The President is also expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose them on us.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell yesterday gave his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Today, he'll do it again before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee.

In yesterday's testimony he once again remarked that "with our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance." This was a familiar tone that the Fed has struck since late last year.

The Fed still expects two rate cuts this year (presumably by 25 basis points each). But when is the question. Although, they insist they'll be data dependent.

Which is why this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI ? retail inflation) report will be watched so closely. Last month's y/y headline inflation number increased to 2.9% from 2.7%, while the core rate (ex-food & energy) eased to 3.2% from 3.3%. Today's report is expected to show headline inflation up 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.4% pace, with the y/y rate at 2.9%, in line with last month. The core rate is expected to be up 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.2%, while the y/y rate eases a bit further to 3.1% vs. last month's 3.2%.

After today's CPI report, we'll get the Producer Price Index (PPI ? wholesale inflation) tomorrow.

Besides today's CPI, we'll also get MBA Mortgage Applications, and the EIA Petroleum Status report. And we'll hear from Fed policymakers Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller as they speak at their respective engagements today.

The week is still young, but at the moment, the big three indexes (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) are up for the week, so far. But the small-cap and mid-cap indexes are lagging, although not by much.

All eyes will be on this morning's CPI report. That comes out at 8:30 AM ET.

See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

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