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Spoken Word: Archive
Tracking Recession Probabilities on the FRED Macro System
by John Blank
Polymarket odds for a 2027 recession? They rest at 35%.
TXNNegative Net Change SHOPPositive Net Change TTENegative Net Change
economy
Can Hyperscalers Keep Supporting the Market?
by John Blank
After their latest Q3 earnings, we have questions.
AMZNNegative Net Change MSFTNegative Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change
earnings stock-performance
The Great U.S. Existing Home Mortgage Lock-in
by John Blank
The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate sat at 3.11% in 2020 and 2.96% in 2021.
ENegative Net Change VLONegative Net Change PSXNegative Net Change
economy home-builder
Is the "AI" Chip Stock Momentum Rally Over?
by John Blank
If it is, what stocks are worth owning, now?
GSNegative Net Change UNHNegative Net Change DELLPositive Net Change
artificial-intelligence stock-performance
Generative "AI" Macro Data Shows U.S. Impacts
by John Blank
There are solid gains to knowledge workers. But smaller ones outside it.
ADMNegative Net Change CLSPositive Net Change ONCPositive Net Change
artificial-intelligence economy
Macro Takeaways from Apple Earnings
by John Blank
This AI Semi Chip Craze Will Cause Product Inflation
AAPLNegative Net Change VLONegative Net Change MPWRPositive Net Change LITEPositive Net Change
earnings stock-performance
What is the Current U.S. Macro Set-Up?
by John Blank
How can traders and investors position themselves?
NVDAPositive Net Change TSMPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change
economy
Should You Worry? This AI Cap-Ex Boom is Bigger than 1999.
by John Blank
Yes. There are strikingly similar themes in play.
CSCONegative Net Change AMATPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change
artificial-intelligence
What Will the New Fed Chair Do?
by John Blank
FOMC policy rates may well be the most important factor -- for stocks.
ALBPositive Net Change MUSAPositive Net Change DYPositive Net Change
economy
Time for a Summertime Stock Market Lull?
by John Blank
Let's take a closer look, into valuations & trader sentiment.
CATPositive Net Change MUPositive Net Change SNDKPositive Net Change
stock-market-sectors stock-performance