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Phillips 66 (PSX) Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2020 results on Jul 31, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company came up with earnings of $1.02 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents on the back of contributions from Midstream and Marketing, and Specialties businesses.

It surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average being 23.5%, as shown in the chart below.

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 price-eps-surprise | Phillips 66 Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter loss of 85 cents per share has seen no upward movement but six downward revisions in the past 30 days. The figure suggests a year-over-year decrease of 128.2%.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $14.9 billion for the quarter, indicating a decline of 47.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Note

Although midstream infrastructure has been in high demand in the United States, coronavirus-induced lockdowns have caused energy demand destruction all over the country and abroad. This is expected to reflect on the company’s second-quarter refining results. Moreover, minimum crude rates in some of its refineries are likely to have resulted in lower utilizations in the second quarter.

Given the market conditions in the second quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted pre-tax income from the Midstream segment is pegged at $278 million, indicating a decrease from the second-quarter 2019 level of $423 million. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter adjusted pre-tax loss from the Refining segment is pegged at $562 million. A profit of $983 million was recorded in the June quarter of 2019. As this segment is the largest contributor to profits (40% in 2019), lower income from the same might reflect on its overall second-quarter results.

For the Marketing and Specialties segment, the consensus mark for the said metric is pegged at a profit of $246 million, suggesting a decrease from $353 million in second-quarter 2019. The same for the Chemicals segment’s profit is pegged at $92 million, indicating fall from the year-ago level of $275 million.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Phillips 66 this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -31.38% as the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at a loss of $1.01 per share, much wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Phillips 66 currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Energy Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.48% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 6. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Range Resources Corporation (RRC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.91% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Aug 3.

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.27% and holds a Zacks Rank #2. It is set to report second-quarter results on Aug 6.

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