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What's in Store for Aspen Technology's (AZPN) Q4 Earnings?

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Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Aug 12.

For fourth-quarter 2020, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is steady at $1.18 per share over the past 30 days, indicating a decline of 25.8% from the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $176.75 million, suggesting a decline of 9.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

The company has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, missing the same in the remaining two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.37%, on average.

Aspen Technology, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Aspen Technology, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Aspen Technology, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Aspen Technology, Inc. Quote

Factors to Note

Coronavirus crisis-induced supply chain disruptions are likely to have affected contract renewals and dampened revenue growth in the fiscal fourth quarter. Further, major oil industry downturn and steep drop in oil prices might have weighed on fiscal fourth-quarter performance.

Moreover, COVID-19 led macroeconomic weakness is likely to have reduced spend on capital expenditure across small and medium sized business (SMB) in Engineering & Construction or E&C vertical, which may get reflected in the to-be-reported quarter’s results.

Nevertheless, demand uptick across China is likely to have contributed to revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter. In fact, during the to-be-reported quarter, Aspen Technology’s Mtell and ProMV asset performance management (“APM”) solutions were selected by the chemical company China National BlueStar to accelerate digital transformation.

Further, strength in aspenONE MSC Suite, and APM suite pipeline are anticipated to have aided fiscal fourth-quarter performance.

Also, coronavirus crisis triggered demand for refining and select chemicals might have aided the company’s APM solutions in gaining traction. This, in turn, may get reflected in the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues.

Notably, during the quarter, Aspen Technology announced partnership with Hargrove, provider of automation services in a bid to offer engineering services for a “Digital Twin” to aid plant owners and operators to enhance uptime in a secure manner and boost operating margins.

Nevertheless, increasing expenses on product enhancements amid stiff competition in the APM space from Maximo from International Business Machines Corporation (IBM - Free Report) , Oracle’s Enterprise Asset Management solution and SAP’s Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) suite, are likely to have weighed on the fiscal fourth-quarter performance.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Aspen Technology this time around. According to the Zacks model, a combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Aspen Technology has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are a few companies, which have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Deere & Company (DE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.64% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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