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Alibaba (BABA) Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Aug 20. In the last reported quarter, the China e-commerce giant delivered an earnings surprise of 47.7%.

The surprise history has been impressive in Alibaba’s case. The company surpassed estimates in all the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 25.95%.

Strength in Core e-Commerce Business

Given innovation in data technology, widespread application of big data, and increasing validation for Taobao and Tmall portals, its top line is expected to have expanded in the quarter to be reported.

The company has been making continuous efforts to add value to consumers and sellers through the consumer segment, product enrichment, as well as platform innovations. This strategy is expected to have expanded the customer base and strengthened top-line growth.

Growing Cloud Momentum

Cloud computing has been emerging as a key technology to fight the battle against the coronavirus pandemic. This technology has been witnessing higher usage globally as it allows data interoperability in a scalable, cost-efficient way by data collection, processing, analyzing and sharing across platforms.

In the to-be-reported quarter, revenues from the cloud segment are expected to have increased from a year ago, backed by growth in the number of paying customers and higher-than-usual spending by them, reflecting increased usage of services.

Strong Mobile Growth

The company’s Mobile Monthly Active Users improved sequentially in fiscal fourth-quarter 2020, a trend that most likely continued in the fiscal first quarter. This is because of increased adoption of mobile devices by consumers as the primary method of accessing Alibaba’s platforms. 

It has been building the online marketing inventory on both mobile and PC, as well as recording higher monetization rates. These factors are likely to have boosted Alibaba’s profits.

Overhangs Remain

It has been spending heavily in new areas of core online retail business, including supermarkets, stores, new artificial intelligence, digital entertainment and cloud computing businesses. The increased expenses might reflect on Alibaba’s fiscal first-quarter results.

However, political worries might have weighed on the company's domestic and international growth.

Moreover, increasing competition from companies like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) and JD.com (JD), among others, as well as deceleration of growth in the e-commerce market — both domestically and internationally — might have impacted its earnings in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Alibaba this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.16%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, Alibaba has a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few other stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat in the upcoming releases.

Agilent Technologies (A - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Autodesk (ADSK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.44% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2, currently.

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