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Incyte (INCY) to Post Q3 Earnings: Will Jakafi Drive Results?

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Incyte Corporation (INCY - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2020 results on Nov 5, before market open.

The company has a mixed track record. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings estimates by 61.04%. It missed earnings expectations in the last four quarters by 893.94%, on average.

Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Incyte Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Incyte Corporation Quote

Let’s see, how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Why A Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Incyte this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Incyte is +5.35%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at 72 cents and the Most Accurate Estimate at 76 cents.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Driving Growth

Incyte primarily derives product revenues from sales of Jakafi in the United States and Iclusig. Patient demand for its lead drug, Jakafi, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, in all approved indications (polycythemiavera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease [GVHD]) was strong in the previous quarter, a trend that most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Jakafi sales grew 16% in the second quarter and the third quarter has most likely witnessed a sequential increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jakafi sales stands at $483 million.

The company also earns product royalty revenues from Novartis AG (NVS - Free Report) for the commercialization of Jakafi in ex-U.S. markets. Novartis recorded 20% growth in sales to $335 million in the third quarter and hence, Incyte might have received higher royalties for the same.

We remind investors that while Jakafi sales and royalties are key catalysts for the company’s revenue growth, Iclusig sales and Olumiant royalties from Eli Lilly also contribute to the top line. Hence, these are likely to have aided the company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. Net product revenues of Iclusig amounted to $22.8 million in the previous quarter and similar levels of contribution are likely to have been witnessed in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Iclusig sales stands at $24.9 million.

In April, the FDA approved Pemazyre (pemigatinib), a kinase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adults with previously treated, unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic cholangiocarcinoma. Sales in the previous quarter came in at $3.8 million and the third quarter has most likely witnessed a sequential increase.

In May, the FDA approved Tabrecta (capmatinib) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), whose tumors have a mutation that leads to MET exon 14 skipping (METex14) as detected by an FDA-approved test. Partner Novartis has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights to Tabrecta. Royalties from the same might have resulted in incremental sales in the third quarter.

However, operating expenses have most likely increased in the third quarter due to an increase in selling, general and administrative expenses.

Key Pipeline Updates

Apart from the regular top and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on the company’s pipeline updates.

Incyte and Eli Lilly announced that the European Medicines Agency's (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) has issued a positive opinion for baricitinib for the treatment of adult patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis (AD) who are candidates for systemic therapy.

Share Price Performance

Incyte’s stock has lost 0.3% in the year so far compared with the industry’s 6.9% decline.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of an earnings beat.

Geron (GERN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Regenxbio, Inc. (RGNX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.76% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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