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What's in Store for Groupon (GRPN) This Earnings Season?

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Groupon, Inc. (GRPN - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2020 results on Nov 5.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share has been steady at 48 cents in the past seven days. In the third quarter of 2019, Groupon had reported non-GAAP earnings per share of 1 cent.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues for the third quarter is pegged at $337.9 million, which indicates a decline of 31.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Groupon, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Groupon, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Groupon, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Groupon, Inc. Quote

Notably, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing in the remaining quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 6.32%, on average.

Q2 At a Glance

In second-quarter 2020, the company generated revenues of $396 million, down 25.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure but up 5.8% sequentially.

Non-GAAP loss per share during the quarter were 93 cents compared with non-GAAP earnings of 24 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter and non-GAAP loss per share of $1.63 reported in the previous quarter.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Note

Groupon’s third-quarter performance is expected to have benefitted from restructuring efforts as well its ongoing pivot strategy. The company is also focusing on local experiences marketplace as this market presents significant revenue growth opportunity.

The company has embarked on an ambitious cost-containment strategy. In August 2020, Groupon began its second phase of the restructuring initiative. Third-quarter margins are anticipated to have benefitted from restructuring efforts. 

This daily-deals provider has been expanding inventory and working on improving its merchant and customer experiences to drive growth. Initiatives to improve quality and all-time-available inventory is likely to have attracted more consumers to its platform.

Moreover, Groupon is working on three initiatives namely Deals, Market Rate and Offers to overhaul its inventory.

Under Deals, the company is reducing restrictions on its deeply-discounted deals and facilitating customers to purchase such deals many times. This is likely to improve frequency of purchase and drive growth in billings.  
Under Offers, it is planning to roll out new products with lower discounts to enhance margins for merchants.

Under the Market rate inventory endeavor, Groupon is working on having quality local experiences backed by always-available inventory. This is expected to have aided third-quarter performance.

In the second quarter of 2020, Groupon launched self-service API tool to facilitate seamless joining of merchants to the Groupon marketplace platform. To improve customer experience, the company has been adding new features to its platform like map-based search as well as curated results along with making improvements to search results.

These initiatives are likely to have contributed to the top line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

Nonetheless, Groupon’s third-quarter revenues are likely to reflect the negative impact of COVID-19 on restaurants and travel bookings. These sectors have been hit hard due to the lockdowns imposed worldwide. Increasing investments on platform enhancement amid stiff competition in the e-commerce space is also anticipated to have weighed on third quarter EBITDA performance.

Key Developments in Q3

In September 2020, Groupon partnered with Hemphill Brothers Coach Company to offer a single extravagant road trip in a recreational vehicle (RV). The deal could be touted as promotional one to increase visibility for high-quality travel booking inventory on its platform especially for road and camping trips amid the pandemic. (Read More: What's Behind Groupon's Luxury RV Road Trip Promotion?)

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Groupon this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Groupon has an Earnings ESP of 83.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Sunoco LP (SUN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and sports a Zacks Rank of 2, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +20.90% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2, currently.

Marchex, Inc. (MCHX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +16.67% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

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