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Why Is Novavax (NVAX) Up 52.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Novavax (NVAX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 52.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Novavax due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Novavax’s Loss Widens in Q3, Revenues Lag Estimates

Novavax incurred a loss of $3.21 per share in the third quarter of 2020, much wider than the year-ago quarter’s loss of 74 cents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was of earnings of $2.36 per share. This significant loss was due to recognition of an expense of $187.2 million associated with the company’s manufacturing supply agreements for NVX-CoV2373.

Revenues in the quarter were $157 million, reflecting a significant increase year over year owing to the funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and other funding sources, such as the department of defense and the US government under Operation Warp Speed (OWS) in relation to the clinical development of NVX-CoV2373. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $234 million.

Quarter in Detail

In the reported quarter, research and development expenses were $294.1 million, significantly up from the year-ago figure due to higher costs for the development of NVX-CoV2373 and inclusion of the expense of $187.2 million for manufacturing supply agreements of the same.

General and administrative expenses also rose significantly year over year to $56.9 million due to higher professional fees for supporting development of NVX-CoV2373 and employee-related expenses.

As of Sep 30, 2020, Novavax had cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash worth $571.6 million compared with $609.5 million as of Jun 30, 2020.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted -167.94% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Novavax has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Novavax has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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