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Coronavirus Vaccine Sales Key to Moderna's (MRNA) Q4 Earnings

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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA - Free Report) has been actively engaged in development of a coronavirus vaccine since January 2020. The company received approval for emergency use of its mRNA-based vaccine, mRNA-1273, for COVID-19, in December.

The company supplied 18 million doses of mRNA-1273 to the United States from its launch to Jan 4, majority of which is likely to have happened in December. This is likely to get reflected as product revenues during the fourth quarter. Investors are likely to focus on company’s sales guidance for its COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 as well as over long-term.

We note that Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) in collaboration with BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) and AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) in collaboration with Oxford University are comapnies with an approved coronavirus vaccine. Several other vaccines for COVID-19 are in development including J&J’s single-shot vaccine that is expected to get approval soon. This is likely to increase competition in the segment.

Moderna is also developing the vaccine for adolescents and plans to develop it for pregnant women. It is also focusing on signing supply deals with different countries for the coronavirus vaccine.

Moderna has been developing other mRNA-based vaccines targeting different diseases in clinical stage studies with few in late-stage development.

Ongoing research activities, and increased regulatory activities and activities to support supply of the vaccine to different countries are likely to have driven operating expenses higher during the quarter.

Moderna’s stock has skyrocketed 839.9% in the past year compared with an increase of 14% for the industry.

Meanwhile, Moderna’s coronavirus development progress has attracted partnerships from other government as well global organizations namely, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority ("BARDA"). These partnerships have provided grants to support the different stages of development of mRNA-1273.

The company has received a commitment of $955 million from the U.S. government's Operation Warp Speed program and from the BARDA. These funds will be available to the company as and when needed. During the fourth quarter, Moderna signed an agreement with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (“DARPA”) for a commitment of up to $56 million to fund the development of DARPA’s Nucleic Acids On Demand World-Wide initiative, a mobile manufacturing protype, by leveraging Moderna’s existing manufacturing technology. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for grant revenues is pegged at $113 million for the fourth quarter.

Moderna has a few strategic alliances with pharma companies for the development of some of its pipeline candidates. These alliances generate collaboration revenues for the company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues is pegged at $16.55 million for the fourth quarter. (Read more: Is a Beat in Store for Moderna This Earnings Season?)

Zacks Rank

Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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