It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Simon Property (SPG Quick QuoteSPG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Simon Property due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Simon Property Misses on Q4 FFO, Sees Growth in 2021

Simon Property’s fourth-quarter 2020 FFO per share of $2.17 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.19. The reported figure also comes in 26.7% lower than the year-ago quarter’s $2.96.

Further, the company generated revenues of $1.13 billion during the quarter, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14 billion. The revenue figure also comes in 24% lower than the prior-year quarter reported tally.

Results reflect the pandemic’s adverse impact on the company’s domestic and international operations, with an impact of 95 cents per share, mainly on reduced revenues, partly mitigated by cost-reduction moves.

However, as of Feb 5, 2021, Simon Property’s rent collections from U.S. retail portfolio amounted to 90% of its net billed rents for the second, third and fourth quarters, combined.

The company’s 2021 guidance also looks encouraging. David Simon, chairman, chief executive officer and president, noted, "We feel confident we have turned the corner, and we expect growth in earnings and cash flow in 2021."

Remarkably, during the fourth quarter, Simon Property accomplished its acquisition of an 80% ownership interest in The Taubman Realty Group. Particularly, the retail REIT, through its operating partnership, acquired all of Taubman Centers Inc.’s common stock for $43 per share in cash, with the Taubman family selling roughly one-third of its ownership stake at the transaction price and remains a 20% partner in TRG.

Inside the Headline Numbers

For the U.S. Malls and Premium Outlets portfolio, occupancy was 91.3% as of Dec 31, 2020, shrinking 380 basis points, year on year. Base minimum rent per square feet was $55.80 as of Dec 31, 2020, up 2.2% year on year. Portfolio NOI for the reported quarter fell 23.9% year on year.

Balance Sheet Position

Simon Property exited 2020 with more than $8.2 billion of liquidity. This comprised $1.5 billion of cash on hand, including its share of joint-venture cash, as well as $6.7 billion of available capacity under its revolving credit facilities, net of $623 million outstanding under its U.S. commercial paper program.

During the reported quarter, the REIT accomplished a public offering of 22,137,500 shares of its common stock, reaping net proceeds of $1.56 billion.

Outlook

Simon Property projects 2021 FFO per share at $9.50-$9.75, up from the prior year’s $9.11. Notably, while issuing the guidance, the company assumes no further government mandated shutdowns of its domestic retail properties.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Simon Property has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Simon Property has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.