Pre-market activity to start a new week picks up where last week left off: a rotation from high-value growth stocks in tech, etc. into cyclicals as the U.S. prepares itself to reopen on a national scale, and with new relief and stimulus hitting bank accounts and financial services at the same time. The Dow looks to open around 60 points while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down slightly.
This will be a big week for economic data, as Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts and Building Permits, the Philly Fed and, of course, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims all hit the tape as the week progresses. We also see the commencement of a new two-day meeting from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ending with a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell, who will have plenty of new grist for the mill, especially regarding inflation metrics.
Already this morning we have a new print on the Empire State Index for March, tracking manufacturing in the third-biggest U.S. state by economy, New York. The headline 17.4 read was not only higher than the 15.0 analysts were expecting, but the highest monthly gain in the pandemic era. In fact, we haven’t seen manufacturing data in the Empire State since back in November of 2018 — prior to the trade war between the U.S. and China taking hold in major way.
Shipments put up the highest gains month over month — 21.1 versus 4.0 reported for February — with Inventories +8.1 from +6.5 the previous month. Most importantly, however, as we now pass all econ data through inflation potential, prices paid by manufacturers for input costs, etc. hit its highest monthly gain in nearly a decade — up 6.6 month over month to 64.4. Selling prices suggest they’re not quite there yet — 24.2 from 23.4 last month — but may be forthcoming.
Put this month’s Empire State Index in the “Yes - Inflation” column. By the time of Powell’s presser Wednesday afternoon, it’s quite possible we’ll have amassed a convincing amount of evidence that long-elusive inflation is at last making its presence felt in the overall market. That said, Powell & Co. have thus far remained impervious to previous such reads; until employment climbs back up toward optimum levels, it’s unlikely there will be any new timeline regarding higher rates discussed.
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Big Economic Week Ahead
Pre-market activity to start a new week picks up where last week left off: a rotation from high-value growth stocks in tech, etc. into cyclicals as the U.S. prepares itself to reopen on a national scale, and with new relief and stimulus hitting bank accounts and financial services at the same time. The Dow looks to open around 60 points while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down slightly.
This will be a big week for economic data, as Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts and Building Permits, the Philly Fed and, of course, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims all hit the tape as the week progresses. We also see the commencement of a new two-day meeting from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ending with a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell, who will have plenty of new grist for the mill, especially regarding inflation metrics.
Already this morning we have a new print on the Empire State Index for March, tracking manufacturing in the third-biggest U.S. state by economy, New York. The headline 17.4 read was not only higher than the 15.0 analysts were expecting, but the highest monthly gain in the pandemic era. In fact, we haven’t seen manufacturing data in the Empire State since back in November of 2018 — prior to the trade war between the U.S. and China taking hold in major way.
Shipments put up the highest gains month over month — 21.1 versus 4.0 reported for February — with Inventories +8.1 from +6.5 the previous month. Most importantly, however, as we now pass all econ data through inflation potential, prices paid by manufacturers for input costs, etc. hit its highest monthly gain in nearly a decade — up 6.6 month over month to 64.4. Selling prices suggest they’re not quite there yet — 24.2 from 23.4 last month — but may be forthcoming.
Put this month’s Empire State Index in the “Yes - Inflation” column. By the time of Powell’s presser Wednesday afternoon, it’s quite possible we’ll have amassed a convincing amount of evidence that long-elusive inflation is at last making its presence felt in the overall market. That said, Powell & Co. have thus far remained impervious to previous such reads; until employment climbs back up toward optimum levels, it’s unlikely there will be any new timeline regarding higher rates discussed.