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MP Materials (MP) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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MP Materials Corp. (MP - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2020 results after the closing bell on Mar 18.

Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $37.5 million. The estimate for earnings stands at 3 cents per share. The earnings estimates have gone down 25% over the past 30 days.

Q3 Results

In the last reported quarter, MP Materials reported revenues of $41 million, which reflected an improvement of 51%. This was primarily driven by higher realized pricing. Adjusted EBITDA increased 100% to $11.6 million in third-quarter 2020 from $4.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Net income soared 420% year over year to $14.6 million.

Factors to Note

The company has been implementing efficiency improvements in the processing of rare earth materials, which has resulted in significantly higher production of rare earth oxide (REO) starting in the second half of 2019. In the third quarter, MP Materials produced 10,197 metric tons of contained REO in concentrate, higher both year over year and sequentially. Overall in the first nine-month period of 2020, the company produced 29,166 metric tons of REO, marking an improvement of 54% year over year. This trend might have continued in the fourth quarter as well.

The lifting of Chinese import duties contributed to the improvement in realized price per REO metric tons in the second and third quarter of 2020. This may have benefited fourth-quarter performance as well. Higher volumes sold and increased realized pricing driven by higher market prices and the lifting of certain import duties might get reflected in the to-be-reported quarter’s top line. Further, lower production costs might have weighed pn the fourth-quarter margins.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MP Materials this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here as you will see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for MP Materials is -33.33%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Price Performance

MP Materials’ shares have soared 322.8% in the past year compared with the industry’s rally of 106.6%.

Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post earnings beat this quarter:

Lennar Corporation (LEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.99% and a Zacks Rank of 2 currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Cintas Corporation (CTAS - Free Report) currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.27%.

Commercial Metals Company (CMC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.0% and a Zacks Rank #3, at present.

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