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Why Is Mosaic (MOS) Up 21.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 21.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Mosaic's Earnings and Sales Surpass Estimates in Q4
Mosaic logged profits of $828 million or $2.17 per share in fourth-quarter 2020 compared with a loss of $921 million or $2.43 in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 57 cents that trounced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents.
Net sales rose roughly 18% year over year to $2,457.4 million in the quarter. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,303.3 million. Sales were driven by gains in all segments and higher year over year prices for phosphates.
Segment Highlights
Net sales in the Phosphates segment rose roughly 42% year over year to $990 million in the quarter, driven by higher volumes and prices. Sales volumes in the segment went up 15% year over year. The segment’s gross margin per ton improved to $73 from a loss of $52 in the year-ago quarter, aided by lower raw material costs and higher realized prices in the United States and globally.
Potash division’s net sales climbed around 42% year over year to $559 million on the back of higher volumes, partly masked by lower prices. Sales volumes in the segment rose 80% year over year. Gross margin per ton in the quarter was $45, down around 26% year over year.
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were $823 million, down around 5% year over year. Results were affected by lower prices that offset higher sales volumes. Gross margin per ton was flat year over year at $32.
FY20 Results
Earnings (as reported) for full-year 2020 were $1.75 per share, compared with a loss of $2.78 per share a year ago. Revenues fell roughly 3% year over year to $8,681.7 million for the full year.
Financials
At the end of 2020, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $574 million, up around 11% year over year. Long-term debt fell roughly 10% year over year to $4,073.8 million.
Net cash provided by operating activities fell roughly 14% year over year to $238.4 million in the reported quarter.
Outlook
Moving ahead, the company noted that it expects improving market dynamics that were witnessed in the second half of 2020 to continue through 2021. For 2021, Mosaic expects depreciation, depletion and amortization of $910-$920 million. The company also anticipates net interest expenses of $180-$190 million for 2021. Capital expenditure is forecast to be around $1.1 billion for 2021.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 174.12% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Mosaic (MOS) Up 21.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 21.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Mosaic's Earnings and Sales Surpass Estimates in Q4
Mosaic logged profits of $828 million or $2.17 per share in fourth-quarter 2020 compared with a loss of $921 million or $2.43 in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 57 cents that trounced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents.
Net sales rose roughly 18% year over year to $2,457.4 million in the quarter. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,303.3 million. Sales were driven by gains in all segments and higher year over year prices for phosphates.
Segment Highlights
Net sales in the Phosphates segment rose roughly 42% year over year to $990 million in the quarter, driven by higher volumes and prices. Sales volumes in the segment went up 15% year over year. The segment’s gross margin per ton improved to $73 from a loss of $52 in the year-ago quarter, aided by lower raw material costs and higher realized prices in the United States and globally.
Potash division’s net sales climbed around 42% year over year to $559 million on the back of higher volumes, partly masked by lower prices. Sales volumes in the segment rose 80% year over year. Gross margin per ton in the quarter was $45, down around 26% year over year.
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were $823 million, down around 5% year over year. Results were affected by lower prices that offset higher sales volumes. Gross margin per ton was flat year over year at $32.
FY20 Results
Earnings (as reported) for full-year 2020 were $1.75 per share, compared with a loss of $2.78 per share a year ago. Revenues fell roughly 3% year over year to $8,681.7 million for the full year.
Financials
At the end of 2020, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $574 million, up around 11% year over year. Long-term debt fell roughly 10% year over year to $4,073.8 million.
Net cash provided by operating activities fell roughly 14% year over year to $238.4 million in the reported quarter.
Outlook
Moving ahead, the company noted that it expects improving market dynamics that were witnessed in the second half of 2020 to continue through 2021. For 2021, Mosaic expects depreciation, depletion and amortization of $910-$920 million. The company also anticipates net interest expenses of $180-$190 million for 2021. Capital expenditure is forecast to be around $1.1 billion for 2021.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 174.12% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.