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Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Up 15% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 15% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cleveland-Cliffs due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Cleveland-Cliffs’ Q4 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates

Cleveland-Cliffs logged profits (attributable to the company’s shareholders) of $64 million or 14 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with a profit of $63 million or 23 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. The bottom line in the reported quarter includes charges related to acquisition-related costs and amortization of inventory step-up.   

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings came in at 24 cents per share that trailed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 28 cents.

Revenues shot up more than four-fold year over year to $2,256 million, partly driven by the acquisition of ArcelorMittal USA. However, it missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,309.1 million.

Operational Highlights

The company reported Steelmaking revenues of $2.1 billion for the fourth quarter.  Average net selling price per net ton of steel products was $880 for the quarter. External sales volumes for steel products were roughly 1.9 million net tons.

FY20 Results

Loss (as reported) for full-year 2020 was 32 cents per share, compared with earnings of $1.03 per share a year ago. Revenues rose nearly three-fold year over year to $5,319 million for the full year.

Financial Position

Cleveland-Cliffs ended 2020 with cash and cash equivalents of $112 million, down roughly 68% year over year. Long-term debt more than doubled year over year to $5,390 million at the end of the year.

Net cash used in operating activities was $261 million for full-year 2020.

Outlook

Moving ahead, Cleveland-Cliffs expects steel product shipments of roughly 4 million net tons for first-quarter 2021. It also envisions a significant improvement in first-quarter adjusted EBITDA on a sequential comparison basis.

For 2021, the company expects capital spending in the band of $600 million to $650 million. It also sees selling, general, and administrative expenses of around $450 million for the year.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -72.73% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Cleveland-Cliffs has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Cleveland-Cliffs has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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