Back to top

Image: Bigstock

IMF Raises U.S. and Global Growth Forecast

Read MoreHide Full Article

Fresh off new all-time highs into Monday’s close, market indexes are cooling their heels this morning on an absence of any expected catalysts for market activity. The Dow and the S&P 500 — both having banked new record highs yesterday — look to open down 75 points and 10 points, respectively. The Nasdaq, now within 3% of its own all-time high, and the highest the index has traded in six weeks, is down five points from Monday’s close.

About the only news item cracking headlines stems from last week’s collapse of Archegos Capital, whereby Credit Suisse sees some fallout: a $4.7 billion hit (4.4 billion francs) on media stock losses via Archegos investments, plus the removal of both its Risk Management and Investment Banking heads. The stock, however, isn’t suffering much as a result: down 0.37% in today’s pre-market and -1.5% for the week, reaching back to the initial Archegos story.

Today after the opening bell, we’ll see another economic read on employment: Job Openings for February. Expected is a relatively steady 7.0 million, a tick up from 6.9 million. However, should we see a gap in the actual from estimates and the previous month, this may be something worth paying closer attention to. As we know, March brought in more that 900K jobs to the U.S. economy, far more than expected. Are more companies hiring, too?

We also hear from the IMF World Economic Outlook, as well as an IMF Global Financial Stability report. This will give a more wholistic picture to economic and pandemic recoveries, and find out where the points of weakness lie. Tomorrow also brings us a virtual G20 meeting, the first of the new Italian Presidency, consisting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG). Europe’s execution of Covid vaccinations will for certain be a big topic there.

The U.S. is set. More vaccines are administered on a daily basis than at any time previously. Spring has sprung in much of the country, and pent-up demand — not to mention nicely lined savings accounts — are meeting with federal rescue, stimulus and infrastructure programs to bring about a perfect storm in the U.S. economy.

Estimates are currently for 6.5% — and growing — in 2021 GDP. But without the rest of the world along for the ride — or worse: the rest of the world holding everything down — we won’t have truly come all the way back.

Published in