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Factors Likely to Influence Rite Aid's (RAD) Q4 Earnings

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Rite Aid Corporation is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Apr 15, before the opening bell. The drugstore retailer is likely to have witnessed revenue and earnings growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.86 billion, suggesting a 2.4% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $5.73 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 6 cents, whereas it reported a loss of 37 cents in the year-ago quarter. Notably, the consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days.

For fiscal 2021, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $24 billion, suggesting a rise of 9.4% from the prior year’s reported figure of $21.9 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2021 earnings is pegged at 67 cents, implying significant growth of 346.7% from 15 cents reported last year.

In the last reported quarter, the drugstore retailer delivered a substantial earnings beat. Notably, the company has an earnings surprise of 1,033.8%, on average, for the trailing four quarters.

Rite Aid Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Factors to Note

Rite Aid has been gaining from a rise in pharmacy sales, robust online performance and the expansion of services to its customers. Solid growth in prescription deliveries, driven by free home-delivery services as well as a sturdy performance at Elixir, has also been contributing to growth. Notably, the company has been providing home service delivery to customers with an eligible prescription, with the benefit of zero delivery fees. Customers can avail pick up services for prescriptions and over-the-counter products and also take advantage of the drive-through option, which is available at more than 50% of its retail locations. Moreover, it has launched the Buy Online Pickup In Store initiative in a bid to offer better drive-through and curbside pickup options.

Apart from these, Rite Aid expanded the Instacart delivery facility and received positive feedback for the same. Earlier, it partnered with ScriptDrop to expedite the prescription delivery process. Moreover, the company launched Rite Aid Virtual Care, driven by solid demand for Tele Health in the wake of COVID-19. Also, the fiscal fourth quarter is likely to reflect gains from the solid performance in PBM, in terms of mail orders. That said, its new RxEvolution strategy, with the help of which Rite Aid is likely to become a leader in mid-market PBM, remains on track. These endeavors might have aided the top line in the quarter under review.

However, significant adverse impacts of COVID-19 and reduced cold, cough and flu cases are likely to have taken a toll on the fiscal fourth-quarter results, particularly the adjusted EBITDA. Also, management in a recent update noted that unfavorable weather weighed on the company’s supply chain, which in turn hurt sales in the said quarter. Notably, front-end comparable same store sales fell 5.6% in the fiscal fourth quarter. As these are high-margin products, the decline in comparable same store sales negatively impacted the front-end gross profit. Further, lower acute prescriptions to the tune of 14% led to a nearly 1% decline in comparable same store prescriptions. Also, it has been reeling under elevated SG&A expenses stemming from COVID-19-related costs, including bonuses, cleaning costs, pandemic sick leave and other operating expenses.

Due to such downsides, the company recently lowered its fiscal 2021 view. Management projected revenues to be roughly $24 billion compared with the earlier guided view of $23.9-$24.2 billion. Same store sales are forecasted to grow 3.5% year over year as compared to 3.5-4.5% expected earlier. Moreover, the net loss is likely to be $90-$100 million. It expected adjusted EBITDA of $425-$435 million, down from $490-$520 million guided earlier.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Rite Aid this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Rite Aid has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Dillards, Inc. (DDS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.49% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.50%. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.20% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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