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Case-Shiller +13.2%, Highest in 15+ Years

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Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Market indexes are in the green again this morning, following the strongest trading day this month so far. This, without any marquee names reporting calendar Q1 earnings or monthly economic reports articulating the strength, has helped the Dow and S&P 500 within 1% of their all-time high closes, which last came three weeks ago.

Currently the Dow is +77 points, the S&P 500 +10 and the Nasdaq, still -2.2% on the month, is up 70 points at this hour.

Chipmakers and FAANG enjoyed strong starts to the week, and NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) reports Q1 results tomorrow afternoon. After weeks of slack in tech stocks, pretty much across the board, it would seem investors are developing a new-found attraction for growth tech stocks. The market has done a good job cooling the run-up as the Great Reopening transpires in real time, but the appetite may be increasing again.

The highest Case-Shiller Home Price Index since late 2005 hit the tape this morning, for the month of March. High demand and short supply brought the headline number to +13.2% (12.8% in the 10-city survey and 13.3% in the 20-city — both up from the 11.7% and 12.0%, respectively, from the previous quarter). But we are talking past history here; a lot has happened since the month of the “stimmy checks.”

That said, home prices are likely to only go higher from here: with demand hot and supply tight, we’ve seen input prices in the homebuilding sector climb exponentially. For March, we saw the same three cities at the top of the heap — Phoenix +20%, San Diego +19.1% and Seattle +18.3%. How much higher can housing value in these locales go? Time will tell.

After today’s open, we’ll see new Consumer Confidence numbers for the current month, and New Home Sales for April. These home sales may give us a glimpse of what we’ll see in Case-Shiller data a month from now. Both consumer and home sales headlines are expected to cool from the previous month’s reads. This is where we see headwinds start to blow at sustained, extensive valuations.

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