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Affiliated Managers (AMG) Up 1.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Affiliated Managers Group (AMG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Affiliated Managers due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Affiliated Managers Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, AUM Up

Affiliated Managers’ first-quarter 2021 economic earnings of $4.28 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.26. Also, the bottom line grew 34.5% year over year.

Results reflect improvement in revenues and growth in assets under management (AUM) balance. Further, the company had a robust liquidity position. However, higher operating expenses posed a headwind.

Economic net income was $184.8 million, up 22.1% from the prior-year quarter.

Revenues & AUM Rise, Expenses Up

Total revenues improved 10.2% year over year to $559.1 million. Further, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $554.6 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was $246.8 million, jumping 23.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Total expenses increased 6.8% to $378.5 million. Higher compensation and related expenses, and interest expenses mainly led to the rise.

As of Mar 31, 2021, total AUM was $738 billion, up 23.2% year over year. Net client cash outflows of $7.5 billion during the quarter hurt AUM.

Capital & Liquidity Position Decent

As of Mar 31, 2021, Affiliated Managers had $766.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents compared with $1.04 billion on Dec 31, 2020. The company had $2.30 billion of debt, which declined marginally from Dec 31, 2020 level.

Shareholders’ equity as of Mar 31, 2021 was $2.7 billion compared with $2.8 billion as of Dec 31, 2020.

Share Repurchase Update

During the first quarter, the company repurchased shares worth nearly $210 million.

Second-Quarter 2021 Outlook

Management expects adjusted EBITDA of $210-$220 million based on present AUM level. Performance fee is anticipated to be $10 million and include investments in OCP Asia and Boston Common.

Interest expenses are expected to be $27 million, relatively stable from the prior quarter. Controlling interest depreciation is expected to remain at the first-quarter 2021 level of $2 million.

The company’s share of reported amortization and impairments are expected to be approximately $35 million, down 15% sequentially. Intangible related deferred taxes are projected to be nearly $11 million.

Other economic items (excluding any mark-to-market impact) are anticipated to be $1 million.

Adjusted weighted average share count is estimated to be $42.4 million.

GAAP tax rate is expected to be 24%. Additionally, cash tax rate is expected to be 20%.

2021 Outlook

Economic earnings per share are projected to be in the range of $15.50-$17.00 and adjusted EBITDA will be range of $875 million to $940 million. The company expects performance fee contribution of nearly 10% of earnings.

Adjusted weighted average share count is estimated to be $41.5 million, which indicates $500 million of excess capital returned through share repurchases.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Affiliated Managers has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Affiliated Managers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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