It has been about a month since the last earnings report for NMI Holdings (NMIH Quick QuoteNMIH - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is NMI Holdings due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

NMI Holdings Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

NMI Holdings reported first-quarter 2021 operating net income per share of 62 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1%. However, the bottom line declined 17.3% year over year.

Quarterly results benefited from record new insurance written volume, significant growth in insured portfolio and strong financial performance.

Operational Update

NMI Holdings recorded total operating revenues of $115 million, which increased 6.5% year over year on higher net premiums earned (up 7%) and net investment income (up 8.8%). Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.1%.

Primary insurance-in-force increased 26% to $123.8 billion.

New insurance written was $26.4 billion, up 134% year over year.

Annual persistency was 51.9%, down from 71.7% in the year ago quarter.

Net underwriting and operating expenses totaled $34.1 million, up 5.6% year over year. Insurance claims and claim expenses were $5 million, down 12.3%.

Loss ratio was 4.7, which improved 110 basis points year over year. Expense ratio of 32.2 improved 50 basis points year over year while combined ratio of 36.9 improved 160 basis points year over year.

Financial Update

Book value per share, a measure of net worth, grew 14% year over year to $16.138 as of Mar 31, 2021.

NMI Holdings had $1.9 billion in cash and investments, up 1% from 2020 end. Debt balance of $393.6 million increased 0.1% from 2020 end.

Annualized adjusted return on equity was 15.5%, down 660 basis points.

Total PMIERs available assets were $1.8 billion and net risk-based required assets totaled $1.3 billion at first-quarter 2021 end.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 5% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, NMI Holdings has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise NMI Holdings has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.