Pre-market futures have swung to the positive among the main market indexes this morning, as the “Good-but-not-Great” Reopening so far knocks its way through the tunnel on the way to the other side. Slower-than-expected improvements to the labor force, input cost headwinds and product shortages like housing and semiconductors are meeting head-to-head with long-pent-up demand and higher individual savings rates. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all look to open in the green.
The Trade Deficit for April backed off the all-time lows set in March, which were revised downward to -$75 billion. Today’s April read came in at -$68.9 billion — still around historic lows, but at least not digging the hole deeper. It is the first time since January we are better than sub-$70 billion in our trade deficit. This set of data points reaches back to 1992.
Exports rose 1.1% to $205 billion for the month, while Imports fell 1.4% to $273.9 billion. Our trade deficit with China still stands out prominently: exports rose $1 billion to $13.1 billion while imports increased $6 billion to $45.5 billion. Year over year goods & services deficit improved off last year’s pandemic lows by $94.5 billion, +50.5% year over year.
Post-World War II, we had few discernible and no lasting trade deficits. These only began in earnest during the 1980s. By the early 90s they had fought their way back toward zero, but fell off a cliff starting around the turn of the millennium. For many investors, these figures seem esoteric and not convincingly problematic; economists, who look at how these numbers impact the economy, usually see it a bit differently.
After today’s open, we’ll see the latest data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which for April are expected to reach a highest-ever 8.2 million from 8.1 million reported for March. When this survey began back in late 2000, job openings averaged around 5 million per month. Its lowest point, to no one’s surprise, was back at the nadir of the Great Recession in 2009. This job openings data should fuel the labor market engine for the foreseeable future.
So we’re positive but modestly so at this hour: Dow +5, S&P 500 +8 and the Nasdaq +70. Yes, the return to growth tech stocks appears real, as companies work out their chip-shortage dilemmas and Big Tech stocks carry somewhat more attractive valuations through the leveling-off period of the last two months or so. Growth continues; the question continues to be: how fast?
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Trade Deficit for April Backs Off Record
Pre-market futures have swung to the positive among the main market indexes this morning, as the “Good-but-not-Great” Reopening so far knocks its way through the tunnel on the way to the other side. Slower-than-expected improvements to the labor force, input cost headwinds and product shortages like housing and semiconductors are meeting head-to-head with long-pent-up demand and higher individual savings rates. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all look to open in the green.
The Trade Deficit for April backed off the all-time lows set in March, which were revised downward to -$75 billion. Today’s April read came in at -$68.9 billion — still around historic lows, but at least not digging the hole deeper. It is the first time since January we are better than sub-$70 billion in our trade deficit. This set of data points reaches back to 1992.
Exports rose 1.1% to $205 billion for the month, while Imports fell 1.4% to $273.9 billion. Our trade deficit with China still stands out prominently: exports rose $1 billion to $13.1 billion while imports increased $6 billion to $45.5 billion. Year over year goods & services deficit improved off last year’s pandemic lows by $94.5 billion, +50.5% year over year.
Post-World War II, we had few discernible and no lasting trade deficits. These only began in earnest during the 1980s. By the early 90s they had fought their way back toward zero, but fell off a cliff starting around the turn of the millennium. For many investors, these figures seem esoteric and not convincingly problematic; economists, who look at how these numbers impact the economy, usually see it a bit differently.
After today’s open, we’ll see the latest data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which for April are expected to reach a highest-ever 8.2 million from 8.1 million reported for March. When this survey began back in late 2000, job openings averaged around 5 million per month. Its lowest point, to no one’s surprise, was back at the nadir of the Great Recession in 2009. This job openings data should fuel the labor market engine for the foreseeable future.
So we’re positive but modestly so at this hour: Dow +5, S&P 500 +8 and the Nasdaq +70. Yes, the return to growth tech stocks appears real, as companies work out their chip-shortage dilemmas and Big Tech stocks carry somewhat more attractive valuations through the leveling-off period of the last two months or so. Growth continues; the question continues to be: how fast?