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American Financial (AFG) Soars 3.2%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?

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American Financial Group (AFG - Free Report) shares soared 3.2% in the last trading session to close at $123.55. The move was backed by solid volume with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This compares to the stock's 6.3% loss over the past four weeks.

Recently, the company divested its Annuity businesses to Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company for $3.5 billion. This move will aid American Financial to streamline its business by intensifying focus on Specialty P&C businesses.

American Financial estimates to recognize an after-tax gain on the sale of $680 million to $700 million ($7.85 to $8.10 per share). The sale is also expected to significantly enhance its cash and excess capital.

In connection with the sale of its Annuity business, a special, one-time cash dividend of $14.00 per share has been declared, which marked the 13th straight year of special dividend paid by the property and casualty insurer in the last 10 years.

This property and casualty insurer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.64 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +56.2%. Revenues are expected to be $1.38 billion, down 19.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Earnings and revenue growth expectations certainly give a good sense of the potential strength in a stock, but empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.

For American Financial, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 3% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. And a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't usually translate into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on AFG going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>


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