We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
In this Global Week Ahead, to start the second half of 2021, let’s discuss the state of affairs with respect to COVID.
Israel has led the global vaccine race. By early June 2021, only 12 COVID cases a day were reported there, with 0% of tests returning positive.
In turn, North America and Europe have been the regions making the best progress to date. Consult the data below.
Image Source: New York Times
According to the U.S. Center for Disease Control, currently, several COVID variants are found around the world, including in the United States.
On June 15th, 2021, the B.1.617.2 (aka the Delta variant) was classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) because it spreads from person to person more easily than other variants and may cause more severe disease. B.1.617.2 has been reported in 77 countries. The U.K. has become the main variant in COVID-19 cases.
In the U.S., the proportion of B.1.617.2 for the 2-week period ending June 19, 2021, is predicted to increase to 20.6% nationally.
To July 1st, only 14 nations administered shots to cover at least 30% of the population.
Image Source: Compound Advisors
Progress elsewhere is getting better, quickly though. Adversity demands it. Yet major developed nations such as Australia, Japan, India and Russia lag.
- On May 31st, only 12% of India’s population had been partially vaccinated. On July 1st, 20% of India’s population was partially vaccinated.
- Japan (with the Olympics about to begin) is at 23%, up stunningly from 6.0% a month ago.
Next are Reuters’ five big world market themes, reordered for equity traders.
(1) Can Stock Markets Keep Going Higher in 2H?
With markets into the second half of 2021, can the fast and furious run of the last 15 months keep going?
H1 saw some spectacular action: Oil soared 45%, one 'meme' stock loved by amateur traders rose more than 2,500%, Brazil's currency went from zero to hero. But all that stimulus money also means U.S. inflation now annualizes at 8% versus an average of just 3% over the last 100 years.
As Donald Rumsfeld, who died on Tuesday, said about something completely different: There are many known unknowns. COVID-19 is one, but BofA reckons only a market crash would now stop the Fed reining in stimulus before year-end.
Considering how much markets love cheap money, Q3 may be a bumpy ride.
(2) What to Make of ‘Delta Variant’ COVID Worry?
The risks of another summer cancelled due to COVID-19 are rising as the Delta variant surges globally.
The United Nations issued a dire warning that international tourism arrivals are set to stagnate this year, racking up to $2.4 trillion in losses, and it's been a tough few days for travel and tourism stocks.
A southern European travel share index of companies wiped over 500 million euros ($590 million) off its market capitalization in the week to July 1, Refinitiv data shows.
But don't put away the beach towels and sun cream just yet.
The EU has launched a digital COVID certificate system to open up tourism. Germany, for one, could ease travel restrictions from countries where the Delta variant already dominates if it is sure vaccinated people are protected.
(3) Fed Minutes Out Wednesday
Fed June meeting minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinized after a hawkish shift roiled markets last month.
Policymakers moved their first projected rate hikes to 2023 from 2024 and opened talks on how to end crisis-era bond buying.
While this should put pressure on risk assets, stocks have recovered since and hit new highs, helped by reassuring words from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who's reaffirmed its intent to encourage a "broad and inclusive" recovery in jobs and not raise rates too quickly.
Markets will analyze the language on rising consumer prices and other indications that officials believe a strong recovery means the end of aggressive policy support could come soon.
(4) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meets on Tuesday
Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is shaping up as a blockbuster.
The fate of the RBA's three-year yield target and bond buying scheme will be decided, the language on the rates outlook potentially altered.
At least one hint is implicit: Either the RBA rolls over the yield target set at the cash-rate level of 0.1% from the April to November 2024 bond lines, which signals steady rates until then — or it doesn't, opening the door for a move sooner.
Anticipating a rates liftoff in 2022, investors will watch Governor Philip Lowe's unusual post-meeting news conference.
The U.S. Fed has become more hawkish, perhaps it's time for the hitherto dovish RBA to follow.
(5) Germany’s Greens Trailing in the Polls
With just three months to go until German elections — Europe's key political event this year — polls seem to confirm that Greens are losing their mojo.
Leader Annalena Baerbock faces plagiarism allegations and questions over her CV, and the party is struggling with a Christmas bonus payments scandal and a regional election setback.
Having briefly surged in the polls after Baerbock was picked as chancellor candidate, latest surveys show the Greens with 20% of votes, trailing well behind Angela Merkel's ruling CDU/CSU on 30%.
The shifting permutations of Germany's coalition arithmetic matter for future policy in Europe's largest economy. Right now, a CDU/CSU-led coalition with the Greens looks likely — a combination expected to bring more continuity than change.
But then there's still some time to go.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Let’s look into top stocks on our list, that are clearly overvalued. Here are 3 that shares are in the $400+ category.
(1) Intuit (INTU - Free Report) : This is a Computer-Software stock that prices at a lofty $497 a share. That gives it a market cap of $134B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
(2) ServiceNow (NOW - Free Report) : This is a Computer-IT Services stock that prices at a lofty $552 a share. That gives it a market cap of $107.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
(3) Teledyne (TDY - Free Report) : This is an Aerospace – Defense Equipment stock that prices at $423 a share. That gives it a market cap of $15.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
No. The three stocks are not household names, like the FAANG stocks. But they are all tied to a technology business, of one sort or another.
Key Global Macro
It is a 4-day trading week in the USA.
On top of that, the macro release calendar looks light.
On Monday, Independence Day was celebrated in the USA. Stock markets were closed here.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy statement hits the wires. Gov. Lowe gives a speech.
On Tuesday, Euro area retail sales should be up +7.9% y/y in May.
The U.S. ISM for Services in June may hit 63.5.
On Wednesday, U.S. JOLTs job openings in May should show 8.3 million this month. That is down from 9.3 million in April.
On Thursday, U.S. initial weekly claims for unemployment should be down to 355K, after posting a 364K number the prior week.
On Friday, Canada’s unemployment rate should stall at 8.2% in June.
Keep an eye out for the Baker Hughes oil rig count. Domestic rigs have been low at 475, given $75 a barrel WTI oil prices.
Conclusion
Don’t let this Delta Variant COVID fact from the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) escape you —
“In the U.S., the proportion of B.1.617.2 for the 2-week period ending June 19th, 2021, is predicted to increase to 20.6% nationally."
20.6%?
We are not out of these dark COVID woods.
If you have not gotten vaccinated, do so, regardless of where you live in the world.
Happy Trading!
Regards,
John Blank
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
What of the COVID Situation? Global Week Ahead
In this Global Week Ahead, to start the second half of 2021, let’s discuss the state of affairs with respect to COVID.
Israel has led the global vaccine race. By early June 2021, only 12 COVID cases a day were reported there, with 0% of tests returning positive.
In turn, North America and Europe have been the regions making the best progress to date. Consult the data below.
According to the U.S. Center for Disease Control, currently, several COVID variants are found around the world, including in the United States.
On June 15th, 2021, the B.1.617.2 (aka the Delta variant) was classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) because it spreads from person to person more easily than other variants and may cause more severe disease. B.1.617.2 has been reported in 77 countries. The U.K. has become the main variant in COVID-19 cases.
In the U.S., the proportion of B.1.617.2 for the 2-week period ending June 19, 2021, is predicted to increase to 20.6% nationally.
To July 1st, only 14 nations administered shots to cover at least 30% of the population.
Progress elsewhere is getting better, quickly though. Adversity demands it.
Yet major developed nations such as Australia, Japan, India and Russia lag.
Next are Reuters’ five big world market themes, reordered for equity traders.
(1) Can Stock Markets Keep Going Higher in 2H?
With markets into the second half of 2021, can the fast and furious run of the last 15 months keep going?
H1 saw some spectacular action: Oil soared 45%, one 'meme' stock loved by amateur traders rose more than 2,500%, Brazil's currency went from zero to hero. But all that stimulus money also means U.S. inflation now annualizes at 8% versus an average of just 3% over the last 100 years.
As Donald Rumsfeld, who died on Tuesday, said about something completely different: There are many known unknowns. COVID-19 is one, but BofA reckons only a market crash would now stop the Fed reining in stimulus before year-end.
Considering how much markets love cheap money, Q3 may be a bumpy ride.
(2) What to Make of ‘Delta Variant’ COVID Worry?
The risks of another summer cancelled due to COVID-19 are rising as the Delta variant surges globally.
The United Nations issued a dire warning that international tourism arrivals are set to stagnate this year, racking up to $2.4 trillion in losses, and it's been a tough few days for travel and tourism stocks.
A southern European travel share index of companies wiped over 500 million euros ($590 million) off its market capitalization in the week to July 1, Refinitiv data shows.
But don't put away the beach towels and sun cream just yet.
The EU has launched a digital COVID certificate system to open up tourism. Germany, for one, could ease travel restrictions from countries where the Delta variant already dominates if it is sure vaccinated people are protected.
(3) Fed Minutes Out Wednesday
Fed June meeting minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinized after a hawkish shift roiled markets last month.
Policymakers moved their first projected rate hikes to 2023 from 2024 and opened talks on how to end crisis-era bond buying.
While this should put pressure on risk assets, stocks have recovered since and hit new highs, helped by reassuring words from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who's reaffirmed its intent to encourage a "broad and inclusive" recovery in jobs and not raise rates too quickly.
Markets will analyze the language on rising consumer prices and other indications that officials believe a strong recovery means the end of aggressive policy support could come soon.
(4) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meets on Tuesday
Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is shaping up as a blockbuster.
The fate of the RBA's three-year yield target and bond buying scheme will be decided, the language on the rates outlook potentially altered.
At least one hint is implicit: Either the RBA rolls over the yield target set at the cash-rate level of 0.1% from the April to November 2024 bond lines, which signals steady rates until then — or it doesn't, opening the door for a move sooner.
Anticipating a rates liftoff in 2022, investors will watch Governor Philip Lowe's unusual post-meeting news conference.
The U.S. Fed has become more hawkish, perhaps it's time for the hitherto dovish RBA to follow.
(5) Germany’s Greens Trailing in the Polls
With just three months to go until German elections — Europe's key political event this year — polls seem to confirm that Greens are losing their mojo.
Leader Annalena Baerbock faces plagiarism allegations and questions over her CV, and the party is struggling with a Christmas bonus payments scandal and a regional election setback.
Having briefly surged in the polls after Baerbock was picked as chancellor candidate, latest surveys show the Greens with 20% of votes, trailing well behind Angela Merkel's ruling CDU/CSU on 30%.
The shifting permutations of Germany's coalition arithmetic matter for future policy in Europe's largest economy. Right now, a CDU/CSU-led coalition with the Greens looks likely — a combination expected to bring more continuity than change.
But then there's still some time to go.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Let’s look into top stocks on our list, that are clearly overvalued. Here are 3 that shares are in the $400+ category.
(1) Intuit (INTU - Free Report) : This is a Computer-Software stock that prices at a lofty $497 a share. That gives it a market cap of $134B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
(2) ServiceNow (NOW - Free Report) : This is a Computer-IT Services stock that prices at a lofty $552 a share. That gives it a market cap of $107.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
(3) Teledyne (TDY - Free Report) : This is an Aerospace – Defense Equipment stock that prices at $423 a share. That gives it a market cap of $15.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
No. The three stocks are not household names, like the FAANG stocks. But they are all tied to a technology business, of one sort or another.
Key Global Macro
It is a 4-day trading week in the USA.
On top of that, the macro release calendar looks light.
On Monday, Independence Day was celebrated in the USA. Stock markets were closed here.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy statement hits the wires. Gov. Lowe gives a speech.
On Tuesday, Euro area retail sales should be up +7.9% y/y in May.
The U.S. ISM for Services in June may hit 63.5.
On Wednesday, U.S. JOLTs job openings in May should show 8.3 million this month. That is down from 9.3 million in April.
On Thursday, U.S. initial weekly claims for unemployment should be down to 355K, after posting a 364K number the prior week.
On Friday, Canada’s unemployment rate should stall at 8.2% in June.
Keep an eye out for the Baker Hughes oil rig count. Domestic rigs have been low at 475, given $75 a barrel WTI oil prices.
Conclusion
Don’t let this Delta Variant COVID fact from the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) escape you —
“In the U.S., the proportion of B.1.617.2 for the 2-week period ending June 19th, 2021, is predicted to increase to 20.6% nationally."
20.6%?
We are not out of these dark COVID woods.
If you have not gotten vaccinated, do so, regardless of where you live in the world.
Happy Trading!
Regards,
John Blank