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In the Global Week Ahead, traders get the latest U.S. core Consumer Price Inflation data (CPI) for August.
That key CPI data print comes out on Tuesday.
Current dollar GDP figures don’t often get highlighted. This is a figure that incorporates both Consumer Price Inflation and real GDP Growth. For Q2, in the U.S. economy, the Current Dollar GDP expanded by +13.2%.
Be made fully aware: that +13.2% increase includes +6.5% from the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred consumer inflation gauge. That’s right. Consumer price inflation is 49% of the U.S. revenue growth story now.
Inspect the following Zacks earnings projections, from our Research Director Sheraz Mian:
Nearly half of his revenue growth projections incorporate consumer price movement.
Nearly half.
Zacks expects total Q3 earnings for the S&P500 index to be up:
+26.2% from the same period last year on +13.7% higher revenues
This would follow the +94.6% earnings growth on +24.0% higher revenues in Q2
Looking at the calendar-year picture for the S&P 500 index, earnings are projected to climb:
+42.6% on +13.0% higher revenues in 2021 and increase
+9.3% on +6.7% higher revenues in 2022
This would follow the -13% earnings decline on -1.7% lower revenues in 2020.
Since Q3 has revenue growth of +13.7%, and Current Dollar GDP is at +13.2%, I would term the near-term Q3 outlook for revenue growth on the S&P 500 as stable, but not exciting.
In the August Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, I read this revealing comment from a Food, Beverage, and Tobacco purchasing executive—
“Supply chain functions have been relentlessly challenging. All things from freight (both over the road and ocean). Already constrained labor forces are further exacerbated by COVID-19 absenteeism. Also, high prices everywhere are wearing our employee base down.”
Oftentimes, well-chosen words are more revealing than dry data.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) Lots of M&A Deals Are Happening
September has seen the relentless deal-flow crank back into gear, with buyout firms and companies honing in on acquisition targets and stock market listings.
Dealmakers are looking to build on a record-breaking first eight months of 2021, and central banks seemingly cautious about removing stimulus are providing little reason to hold back:
- The U.S. and Asia have seen M&A volumes hit an all-time high for the first eight months of the year at $2 trillion and $805.7 billion respectively
- Europe is at a 14-year high of $870 billion
With British supermarket chain Morrisons on the verge of a $10 billion takeover and Easyjet reporting an unsolicited bid -- potentially sparking off more deal activity in those sectors -- it will only get busier.
(2) Where Are Bond Rates Going?
Bond investors just can't make up their mind.
One minute they're bailing out of debt, confident that central banks will soon dial back emergency stimulus. The next, they're snapping up bonds, hopeful that tapering will be modest.
For now, the latter view prevails after the European Central Bank trimmed emergency bond buys but stressed this was not tapering. The relief was palpable with Italian yields posting their biggest one-day fall since March.
Australia's central bank also confirmed plans to trim bond buying but extended its program out to February. But hold on: Judging by trade in recent weeks, a hawkish comment from a Fed or ECB member here or a strong data print there, could soon reverse the tide.
Watch that central bank talk.
(3) On Tuesday, We Get a Consumer Price Inflation Update
Tuesday's U.S. consumer prices data will provide more fodder for the debate on whether the current inflation burst is likely to fade as a handful of drivers causing prices to rise in recent months eventually ease.
In July, price increases slowed but remained at a 13-year high on a yearly basis amid tentative signs inflation has peaked as pandemic-induced supply-chain disruptions work their way through. Meanwhile Friday's University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will provide a glimpse on the health of the economic recovery.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell assured markets policymakers would take a measured approach to tapering monthly bond purchases, worries linger that persistent rising inflation could hasten a rollback of loose money policies.
(4) Japanese Stock Traders Like the News of a Different Prime Minister
In the wide-open contest to be Japan's next premier, hopefuls have until Friday to announce intentions.
For now, it's a three-horse race:
- The favorite, COVID-19 vaccine minister Taro Kono
- Ex-foreign minister Fumio Kishida and
- Ex-internal affairs minister Sanae Takaichi — the first woman to bid for the job
Whoever wins the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership contest on Sept. 29th becomes Prime Minister, and will lead the party into the Nov. 28th general election.
Premier Yoshihide Suga's departure lifted the Nikkei share average to a near six-month high and the TOPIX index to its best close in three decades on bets that with a new leader will come new pandemic-fighting fiscal stimulus.
(5) U.K. Macro Data Showing a Slowdown
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warns Britain's economic bounce back is slowing; upcoming data on jobs, inflation and retail sales will show if he is right — and may provide crucial inputs before the Sept 23rd policy meeting.
July inflation, dismissed as a blip, slowed to 2%. Retail sales fell 2.5% month-on-month, blamed on bad weather and soccer. Will Wednesday's August data show a pick-up?
Inflation pressures remain high — July factory output costs rose 4.9% year-on-year, the most in nearly 10 years. Input costs jumped by almost 10%.
Tuesday's jobs data is also in focus, given labor shortages, a record 8.8% rise in June average wages, and below-average unemployment. The end of furlough schemes may push people into the jobs market, but skills shortages risk fueling price pressures driven by supply bottlenecks and commodity prices.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Financials and Real Estate stocks have surged. Let’s take a look into three that made our Zacks #1 Rank list.
(1) Blackstone (BX - Free Report) : This is a $129 a share Financial Services industry stock, making for a $88.8B market cap. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of F. The forward 12M P/E ratio is 35.
(2) Chubb (CB - Free Report) : This is a $181 a share Property and Casualty Insurance industry stock, making for a $79.5B market cap. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of F and a Zacks Momentum score of F. PEG ratio of 1.46.
(3) Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL - Free Report) : This is a $241 a share Real Estate Operations industry stock, making for a market cap of $12.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum Score of F. PEG ratio of 1.75.
Do I like any of these names? To be honest, I do not. I am still more interested in Large Cap Tech growth stocks.
Referencing their Value stock metrics, they are not looking great, after big share price runs.
Key Global Macro
Watch out for the U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) reading on Tuesday.
On Monday, there is a 3-month and 6-month U.S. T-bill auction.
On Tuesday, we get to see the critical U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. I see a m/m rise of +0.4% from consensus. The y/y core CPI rate is at +5.4% thru July.
On Wednesday, China’s retail sales come out. I see a +7.1% annual rise is the consensus reading. For that nation, that is termed ‘slowing.’
The U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index is out. I see a 75 number printed last month.
On Thursday, U.S. retail sales, ex-autos, should be down -0.1% m/m in August.
On Friday, the Eurozone core CPI should be +0.7% y/y in August.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment comes out. Last month’s 70.2 reading was poor. Let’s see what this month brings.
Conclusion
This is the middle of September.
I would be careful about opening new long positions in stocks right now. This is a month that is known for volatility.
On top of that, this is a fully priced stock market. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P500 index is 21.3. The 5-year average P/E ratio is 18.2.
It might be smart to keep a little cash set aside, in case we see a pullback.
Happy trading and investing.
Regards,
John Blank
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Don't Ignore the CPI: Global Week Ahead
In the Global Week Ahead, traders get the latest U.S. core Consumer Price Inflation data (CPI) for August.
That key CPI data print comes out on Tuesday.
Current dollar GDP figures don’t often get highlighted. This is a figure that incorporates both Consumer Price Inflation and real GDP Growth. For Q2, in the U.S. economy, the Current Dollar GDP expanded by +13.2%.
Be made fully aware: that +13.2% increase includes +6.5% from the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred consumer inflation gauge. That’s right. Consumer price inflation is 49% of the U.S. revenue growth story now.
Inspect the following Zacks earnings projections, from our Research Director Sheraz Mian:
Nearly half of his revenue growth projections incorporate consumer price movement.
Nearly half.
Zacks expects total Q3 earnings for the S&P500 index to be up:
Looking at the calendar-year picture for the S&P 500 index, earnings are projected to climb:
This would follow the -13% earnings decline on -1.7% lower revenues in 2020.
Since Q3 has revenue growth of +13.7%, and Current Dollar GDP is at +13.2%, I would term the near-term Q3 outlook for revenue growth on the S&P 500 as stable, but not exciting.
In the August Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, I read this revealing comment from a Food, Beverage, and Tobacco purchasing executive—
“Supply chain functions have been relentlessly challenging. All things from freight (both over the road and ocean). Already constrained labor forces are further exacerbated by COVID-19 absenteeism. Also, high prices everywhere are wearing our employee base down.”
Oftentimes, well-chosen words are more revealing than dry data.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) Lots of M&A Deals Are Happening
September has seen the relentless deal-flow crank back into gear, with buyout firms and companies honing in on acquisition targets and stock market listings.
Dealmakers are looking to build on a record-breaking first eight months of 2021, and central banks seemingly cautious about removing stimulus are providing little reason to hold back:
With British supermarket chain Morrisons on the verge of a $10 billion takeover and Easyjet reporting an unsolicited bid -- potentially sparking off more deal activity in those sectors -- it will only get busier.
(2) Where Are Bond Rates Going?
Bond investors just can't make up their mind.
One minute they're bailing out of debt, confident that central banks will soon dial back emergency stimulus. The next, they're snapping up bonds, hopeful that tapering will be modest.
For now, the latter view prevails after the European Central Bank trimmed emergency bond buys but stressed this was not tapering. The relief was palpable with Italian yields posting their biggest one-day fall since March.
Australia's central bank also confirmed plans to trim bond buying but extended its program out to February. But hold on: Judging by trade in recent weeks, a hawkish comment from a Fed or ECB member here or a strong data print there, could soon reverse the tide.
Watch that central bank talk.
(3) On Tuesday, We Get a Consumer Price Inflation Update
Tuesday's U.S. consumer prices data will provide more fodder for the debate on whether the current inflation burst is likely to fade as a handful of drivers causing prices to rise in recent months eventually ease.
In July, price increases slowed but remained at a 13-year high on a yearly basis amid tentative signs inflation has peaked as pandemic-induced supply-chain disruptions work their way through. Meanwhile Friday's University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will provide a glimpse on the health of the economic recovery.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell assured markets policymakers would take a measured approach to tapering monthly bond purchases, worries linger that persistent rising inflation could hasten a rollback of loose money policies.
(4) Japanese Stock Traders Like the News of a Different Prime Minister
In the wide-open contest to be Japan's next premier, hopefuls have until Friday to announce intentions.
For now, it's a three-horse race:
Whoever wins the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership contest on Sept. 29th becomes Prime Minister, and will lead the party into the Nov. 28th general election.
Premier Yoshihide Suga's departure lifted the Nikkei share average to a near six-month high and the TOPIX index to its best close in three decades on bets that with a new leader will come new pandemic-fighting fiscal stimulus.
(5) U.K. Macro Data Showing a Slowdown
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warns Britain's economic bounce back is slowing; upcoming data on jobs, inflation and retail sales will show if he is right — and may provide crucial inputs before the Sept 23rd policy meeting.
July inflation, dismissed as a blip, slowed to 2%. Retail sales fell 2.5% month-on-month, blamed on bad weather and soccer. Will Wednesday's August data show a pick-up?
Inflation pressures remain high — July factory output costs rose 4.9% year-on-year, the most in nearly 10 years. Input costs jumped by almost 10%.
Tuesday's jobs data is also in focus, given labor shortages, a record 8.8% rise in June average wages, and below-average unemployment. The end of furlough schemes may push people into the jobs market, but skills shortages risk fueling price pressures driven by supply bottlenecks and commodity prices.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Financials and Real Estate stocks have surged. Let’s take a look into three that made our Zacks #1 Rank list.
(1) Blackstone (BX - Free Report) : This is a $129 a share Financial Services industry stock, making for a $88.8B market cap. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of F. The forward 12M P/E ratio is 35.
(2) Chubb (CB - Free Report) : This is a $181 a share Property and Casualty Insurance industry stock, making for a $79.5B market cap. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of F and a Zacks Momentum score of F. PEG ratio of 1.46.
(3) Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL - Free Report) : This is a $241 a share Real Estate Operations industry stock, making for a market cap of $12.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum Score of F. PEG ratio of 1.75.
Do I like any of these names? To be honest, I do not. I am still more interested in Large Cap Tech growth stocks.
Referencing their Value stock metrics, they are not looking great, after big share price runs.
Key Global Macro
Watch out for the U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) reading on Tuesday.
On Monday, there is a 3-month and 6-month U.S. T-bill auction.
On Tuesday, we get to see the critical U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. I see a m/m rise of +0.4% from consensus. The y/y core CPI rate is at +5.4% thru July.
On Wednesday, China’s retail sales come out. I see a +7.1% annual rise is the consensus reading. For that nation, that is termed ‘slowing.’
The U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index is out. I see a 75 number printed last month.
On Thursday, U.S. retail sales, ex-autos, should be down -0.1% m/m in August.
On Friday, the Eurozone core CPI should be +0.7% y/y in August.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment comes out. Last month’s 70.2 reading was poor. Let’s see what this month brings.
Conclusion
This is the middle of September.
I would be careful about opening new long positions in stocks right now. This is a month that is known for volatility.
On top of that, this is a fully priced stock market. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P500 index is 21.3. The 5-year average P/E ratio is 18.2.
It might be smart to keep a little cash set aside, in case we see a pullback.
Happy trading and investing.
Regards,
John Blank