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Atlas Air (AAWW) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 3, before market open.

The company has a stellar surprise record with its earnings having topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average being 35.04%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2021 earnings has been revised 36% upward over the past 90 days.

Against this backdrop, let’s discuss the factors that might have impacted Atlas Air’s performance in the September quarter.

We expect Atlas Air’s third-quarter 2021 performance to have been hurt by the Delta variant-led surge in COVID-19 cases (particularly in July) across the United States. Supply chain-induced disruptions are also likely to have dented the third-quarter performance.

With oil price moving north, escalated fuel costs are likely to have affected the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for aircraft fuel expense in third-quarter 2021 indicates a 78.8% increase from the third-quarter 2020 reported level.

On a brighter note, with COVID-19 cases declining as the Delta-variant  threat relents, revenues from airline operations, which contribute to the bulk of the top line, are likely to have increased in the third quarter. Evidently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from airline operations in third-quarter 2021 indicates a 1% increase from the second quarter’s reported figure.

What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Atlas Air this time around. The combination of a positive  Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here as elaborated below. You can see  the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: Atlas Air has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.12. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Atlas Air currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Highlights of Q2 Earnings

Atlas Air's third-quarter earnings (excluding 57 cents from non-recurring items) of $4.10 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.09. Total revenues of $990.4 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $946.9 million.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may consider stocks like Copa Holdings (CPA - Free Report) , Azul (AZUL - Free Report) and Genko Shipping & Trading (GNK - Free Report) , which possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Copa Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +25.74% and is Zacks #3 Ranked, presently. The company will release third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 17.

Azul has an Earnings ESP of +3.70% and is Zacks #3 Ranked, presently. The company will release third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 11.

Genko Shipping & Trading has an Earnings ESP of +3.59% and is Zacks #1 Ranked, presently. The company will release third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 3.


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