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Progressive (PGR) Surges 4.8%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?

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Progressive (PGR - Free Report) shares rallied 4.8% in the last trading session to close at $101.81. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 3.5% gain over the past four weeks.

Progressive reported November results, where operating revenues increased year over year due to solid policies in force, higher fees and service revenues as well as higher net premiums earned. Its strong performance across Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Property is likely to drive revenues going forward. However, earnings have declined year over year due to higher expenses and net realized loss on securities.

Management remains focused on customer retention through its increased rate stability and making investments to improve customer experience. It is expected that competitive pricing and new product offerings will enhance Policy life expectancy (PLE) in the long run.

Progressive has a reinsurance program in the Property business, intended to limit the risk to the extent of coverage purchased. Progressive boasts an impressive solvency level as well. Its insurance operations create liquidity by collecting and investing premiums from new and renewal businesses ahead of paying claims.

This insurer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.89 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -51.4%. Revenues are expected to be $12.15 billion, up 14% from the year-ago quarter.

Earnings and revenue growth expectations certainly give a good sense of the potential strength in a stock, but empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.

For Progressive, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 17.5% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. And a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't usually translate into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on PGR going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>


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