It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Carnival (CCL Quick QuoteCCL - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carnival due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Carnival Q4 Earnings & Revenues Lag Estimates, Rise Y/Y

Carnival reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 (ended Nov 30, 2021) results, with earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Nevertheless, the top and bottom line improved on a year-over-year basis.

In the quarter under review, the company reported a loss per share of $1.72, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.45. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported a loss per share of $2.02.

Revenues during the quarter, totaled $1,287 million, which missed the consensus mark of $1,494 million. Nevertheless, the top line improved sharply from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $34 million. Passenger ticket and onboard and other revenues were $674 million and $613 million, respectively.

Q4 Financials

During the fiscal fourth quarter, the company reported an adjusted net loss of $2 billion at par with the previous quarter’s levels. GAAP net loss for the quarter amounted to $2.6 billion.

Carnival ended the quarter with liquidity of $9.4 billion. The company announced that it has enough liquidity to return to full operation. It further added that it will continue to pursue refinancing opportunities to lower interest expenses and extend maturities.

The average monthly cash burn in the third quarter totaled $510 million. The company informed that gradual resumption of business would continue to have a material impact on its liquidity, financial position and results of operations.

In fourth-quarter 2021, occupancy was 58.4% compared with 56% in the prior-year quarter. For December 2021, the company anticipates achieving occupancy levels of 90%.

Balance Sheet

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments as of Nov 30, 2021 were $9.1 billion, compared with $9.5 billion in the prior year period. Total debt (current and long-term) as of Nov 30, 2021 came in at $33.2 billion compared with $26.9 billion as of Nov 30, 2020.

Bookings Update

During the fourth quarter, booking volumes for all future cruises were higher than booking volumes during the third quarter of 2021. However, booking volumes in November were not as robust owing to concerns regarding the Omicron variant. The company stated that cumulative advanced bookings for the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 are at the higher end of historical ranges and at increased prices compared with 2019 levels.

Meanwhile, total customer deposits as of Nov 30, 2021, were $3.5 billion compared with $3.1 billion as of Aug 31, 2021.

Resumption Plan

As of Nov 30, the company had resumed operations at 61% of its capacity. It intends to have its full fleet back in operation in the spring of 2022.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -10.39% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Carnival has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Carnival has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.