Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Airline Stocks to Watch for Earnings on Jan 27: ALK, JBLU & LUV

Read MoreHide Full Article

The spate of flight cancellations due to the omicron-induced staffing crunch and bad weather is unlikely to leave a massive adverse impact on fourth-quarter 2021 results. This is because the entire crisis aggravated mainly on the Christmas Eve, implying that only a week of October-December months was affected by such an unprecedented scenario.

In fact, upbeat passenger traffic, particularly during the Thanksgiving holiday period, boosted the fourth-quarter numbers of the carriers that already reported. A similar scenario is expected to prevail when Alaska Air Group (ALK - Free Report) , JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) and Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) post their respective fourth-quarter numbers on Jan 27.

Against this backdrop, let’s see how things have been shaping up for the above-mentioned prominent airline companies ahead of their respective earnings releases.

Our quantitative model predicts an earnings beat for the company with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) as this combination increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Alaska Air’s fourth-quarter 2021 performance is likely to have been boosted by upbeat passenger revenues. Strong holiday travel demand is likely to have driven passenger revenues. Higher fuel costs with oil prices moving north are expected to have dented the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2021 fuel cost per gallon indicates a 13.1% increase from the number reported in the third quarter of 2021.

Our proven Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for Alaska Air this season as the carrier has an Earnings ESP of -17.73% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present. In fact, our model had not predicted a positive surprise for ALK earlier as well, when its fourth-quarter earnings preview article was issued. Back then, the stock had an Earnings ESP of -35.69% and the same Zacks Rank.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Alaska Air Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Alaska Air Group, Inc. Quote

Like Alaska Air, JetBlue Airways’ fourth-quarter performance is likely to have been hurt by high fuel costs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2021 fuel cost per gallon indicates a 19.7% increase from the number reported in the third quarter of 2021. Even though the effect of flight cancellations is likely to have been limited in the fourth quarter, the same might have muted the high holiday travel rush during the Thanksgiving period. Due to the omicron-induced crisis, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s passenger revenues indicates a 6.3% decline from the third-quarter 2021 reported level.  

Our proven Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for JetBlue this season as the carrier has an Earnings ESP of +6.83% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. The readings were the same earlier as well when we had issued its fourth-quarter earnings preview article.

JetBlue Airways Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

JetBlue Airways Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

JetBlue Airways Corporation price-eps-surprise | JetBlue Airways Corporation Quote

Like Alaska Air and JetBlue, Southwest Airlines’ fourth-quarter performance is expected to have been dented by high fuel costs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2021 fuel cost per gallon (including taxes) indicates a 10.5% increase from the number reported in the third quarter of 2021.However, mainly owing to increased traffic during the Thanksgiving holiday period, load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) is likely to have been expanded in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the December quarter’s load factor is currently pegged at 83%, higher than 81% reported in third-quarter 2021. 

Our proven Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for Southwest Airlines this season as the carrier has an Earnings ESP of +86.44% and a Zacks Rank of 4 at present. In fact, our model had not predicted a positive surprise for LUV earlier as well, when its fourth-quarter earnings preview article was issued. Back then, the stock had an Earnings ESP of +112.90% and the same Zacks Rank.

Southwest Airlines Co. Price and Consensus

Southwest Airlines Co. Price and Consensus

Southwest Airlines Co. price-consensus-chart | Southwest Airlines Co. Quote

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) - free report >>

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) - free report >>

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) - free report >>

Published in