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Eli Lilly (LLY) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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We expect Eli Lilly & Company (LLY - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results on Feb 3, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 2.02%.
This large drugmaker’s performance has been rather weak, with earnings missing expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while beating in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.54%, on average.
Lilly’s stock has risen 23% in the past year compared with an increase of 21.5% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Consider
In the fourth quarter, higher demand and volume growth for its key drugs including Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is likely to have provided top-line support.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is $1.81 billion, $651 million, $405 million, $413 million, $395 million and $152 million, respectively
Sales of key drug Basaglar declined in the past few quarters due to lower realized prices and weak demand caused by competitive pressure in the United States. Sales are not likely to have improved in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Basaglar is $220 million.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices due to increased rebates are likely to have continued hurting sales of most drugs, mainly Taltz.
Higher revenues from Lilly’s COVID-19 therapies (COVID-19 antibodies and sales of Olumiant for the treatment of COVID-19) are likely to have benefited sales due to a sharp rise in infection rates related to the Omicron variant in the quarter.
In December 2021, Lilly raised its expectations for revenues from COVID-19 therapies to $2.1 billion compared with the prior expectation of $1.3 billion based on a new U.S. government agreement in November to purchase 614,000 additional doses of bamlanivimab and etesevimab together. In December, the FDA expanded the emergency approval granted to its COVID-19 antibody cocktail, bamlanivimab plus etesevimab to allow its use in high-risk COVID-19 pediatric and infant patients both for treatment as well as for post-exposure prophylaxis.
Importantly, however, earlier this month, the FDA revised the emergency use authorization (EUA) for bamlanivimab plus etesevimab as well as Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ (REGN - Free Report) cocktail antibody drug, REGEN-COV (casirivimab plus imdevimab). The revision for these two cocktail COVID-19 drugs limits their use in patients who have been infected or exposed to a coronavirus variant that is susceptible to these treatments.
The FDA’s decision to limit the authorized the use of Lilly and Regeneron’s cocktail COVID-19 drugs was based on data, which showed that these treatment options are highly unlikely to be effective against the Omicron variant in the United States. However, the impact of this decision on sales of Lilly’s bamlanivimab plus etesevimab cocktail is not expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter.
The sales of most established drugs like Forteo, Humalog, Humulin, Alimta are likely to have declined in the quarter.
In December, Lilly raised its previously issued 2021 sales and earnings projections due to additional expected revenues from its COVID-19 antibody medicines.
Lilly also issued its financial guidance for 2022 that exceeded expectations. Lilly expects 2022 revenues to be between $27.8 billion and $28.3 billion while earnings per share are expected to be between $8.50 and $8.65. Investors are likely to look forward to an update on the 2022 financial outlook on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Lilly in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Lilly’s Earnings ESP is +0.20%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Lilly has a Zacks Rank #2.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are other large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.18% and a Zacks Rank #1
Pfizer’s stock has risen 52.4% in the past year. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2022 earnings have gone up from $4.59 to $6.14 over the past 60 days.
Pfizer’s earnings performance has been mixed, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. PFE has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.85%, on average.
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.53% and a Zacks Rank #3.Amgen’s stock has declined 2.9% in the past year.
Amgen also topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Amgen has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.65%, on average.
Image: Bigstock
Eli Lilly (LLY) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
We expect Eli Lilly & Company (LLY - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results on Feb 3, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 2.02%.
This large drugmaker’s performance has been rather weak, with earnings missing expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while beating in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.54%, on average.
Lilly’s stock has risen 23% in the past year compared with an increase of 21.5% for the industry.
Factors to Consider
In the fourth quarter, higher demand and volume growth for its key drugs including Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is likely to have provided top-line support.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is $1.81 billion, $651 million, $405 million, $413 million, $395 million and $152 million, respectively
Sales of key drug Basaglar declined in the past few quarters due to lower realized prices and weak demand caused by competitive pressure in the United States. Sales are not likely to have improved in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Basaglar is $220 million.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices due to increased rebates are likely to have continued hurting sales of most drugs, mainly Taltz.
Higher revenues from Lilly’s COVID-19 therapies (COVID-19 antibodies and sales of Olumiant for the treatment of COVID-19) are likely to have benefited sales due to a sharp rise in infection rates related to the Omicron variant in the quarter.
In December 2021, Lilly raised its expectations for revenues from COVID-19 therapies to $2.1 billion compared with the prior expectation of $1.3 billion based on a new U.S. government agreement in November to purchase 614,000 additional doses of bamlanivimab and etesevimab together. In December, the FDA expanded the emergency approval granted to its COVID-19 antibody cocktail, bamlanivimab plus etesevimab to allow its use in high-risk COVID-19 pediatric and infant patients both for treatment as well as for post-exposure prophylaxis.
Importantly, however, earlier this month, the FDA revised the emergency use authorization (EUA) for bamlanivimab plus etesevimab as well as Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ (REGN - Free Report) cocktail antibody drug, REGEN-COV (casirivimab plus imdevimab). The revision for these two cocktail COVID-19 drugs limits their use in patients who have been infected or exposed to a coronavirus variant that is susceptible to these treatments.
The FDA’s decision to limit the authorized the use of Lilly and Regeneron’s cocktail COVID-19 drugs was based on data, which showed that these treatment options are highly unlikely to be effective against the Omicron variant in the United States. However, the impact of this decision on sales of Lilly’s bamlanivimab plus etesevimab cocktail is not expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter.
The sales of most established drugs like Forteo, Humalog, Humulin, Alimta are likely to have declined in the quarter.
In December, Lilly raised its previously issued 2021 sales and earnings projections due to additional expected revenues from its COVID-19 antibody medicines.
Lilly also issued its financial guidance for 2022 that exceeded expectations. Lilly expects 2022 revenues to be between $27.8 billion and $28.3 billion while earnings per share are expected to be between $8.50 and $8.65. Investors are likely to look forward to an update on the 2022 financial outlook on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Lilly in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Lilly’s Earnings ESP is +0.20%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Lilly has a Zacks Rank #2.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are other large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.18% and a Zacks Rank #1
Pfizer’s stock has risen 52.4% in the past year. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2022 earnings have gone up from $4.59 to $6.14 over the past 60 days.
Pfizer’s earnings performance has been mixed, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. PFE has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.85%, on average.
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.53% and a Zacks Rank #3.Amgen’s stock has declined 2.9% in the past year.
Amgen also topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Amgen has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.65%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.