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Factors to Determine the Fate of PepsiCo (PEP) in Q4 Earnings

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PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP - Free Report) is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2021 numbers on Feb 10, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $24.3 billion, implying 8.3% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

For quarterly earnings, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.52, suggesting growth of 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has moved down by a penny in the past seven days.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.5%. It delivered an earnings surprise of 6.5%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

PepsiCo, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

PepsiCo, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

PepsiCo, Inc. price-eps-surprise | PepsiCo, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Note

PepsiCo has been gaining from the resilience and strength in its global snacks and foods business and growth in the beverage category. Market share growth in the liquid refreshment beverage category has been aiding the beverage business. Meanwhile, the food business has been benefiting from share gains in salty and savory snacks, meals, and instant oatmeal, including innovative product launches like the Cheetos Mac ‘n Cheese and Quaker Protein Instant Oatmeal. Growth in both categories is likely to have aided sales and earnings in the fourth quarter.

The company is also expected to have benefited from resilient trends in the North America business. The PBNA segment is likely to have reflected continued gains from investments in innovation, pricing and execution. Growth in its key brands like Mountain Dew, LifeWtr, bubly and Aquafina, Pepsi, and Starbucks is likely to have aided the top line in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company has been benefiting from brand investments, go-to-market systems, supply chain, manufacturing capacity and digital capabilities to build competitive advantages. Robust pricing and volume gains have also been aiding its performance.

However, the impacts of supply-chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures from labor, transportation and commodity costs are likely to have marred the company’s fourth-quarter 2021 results. The aforementioned factors are expected to have weighed on the company’s gross and operating margins in the to-be-reported quarter.

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PepsiCo this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

PepsiCo has a Zacks Rank #4 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Coty (COTY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +37.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter 2021 numbers. The consensus mark for COTY’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days at 12 cents per share. However, the consensus estimate suggests a 29.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Coty’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, which suggests a rise of 13.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Hormel Foods (HRL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The consensus mark for HRL's quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.87 billion, which suggests a rise of 16.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate has moved down 8.3% to 44 cents per share in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate indicates 7.3% growth from 41 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Beyond Meat (BYND - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2021 earnings. The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $104 million, which suggests 2% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus mark for the quarterly bottom line has been unchanged in the past 30 days at a loss of 73 cents per share. However, the loss estimate for BYND has widened significantly from a loss of 34 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter.

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