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How Will Pfizer's (PFE) Key Drugs Perform in Q4 Earnings?
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Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) comprises six business units — Oncology, Inflammation & Immunology, Rare Disease, Hospital, Vaccines and Internal Medicine.
Oncology sales are likely to have risen in the fourth quarter, driven by higher sales of Ibrance in international markets, Inlyta and alliance revenues from Astellas for Xtandi.
Ibrance sales are likely to have risen outside the United States, which might have made up for lower sales in the United States. Increased demand due to continued recovery in diagnosis rates and treatment initiations might have benefited sales in outside U.S. markets. However, an increase in the proportion of patients using Pfizer’s Patient Assistance Program (provides Ibrance free of charge to certain low-income patients) due to COVID-related economic hardships might have continued to hurt U.S sales of Ibrance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Ibrance (worldwide) is $1.38 billion.
Growth in the United States and developed Europe due to the combination use of Inlyta for the first-line treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma patients benefited the drug’s sales in the past couple of quarters, a trend likely to have continued in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Inlyta is $270 million.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 9.6% this year so far compared with a decrease of 3.3% for the industry.
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In the non-oncology area, a key contributor to Pfizer’s sales in the fourth quarter is likely to have been it and partner BioNTech’s (BNTX - Free Report) COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Sales are expected to have been higher than third-quarter sales of $13.0 billion. In the quarter, the FDA extended the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the booster dose of Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine to allow its use in all adults as well as children 12 through 17 years of age. In addition, the FDA granted emergency approval to Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age, making it the first vaccine to be authorized in the United States for this age group.
Most importantly, in December 2021, the FDA granted EUA to Pfizer’s promising oral antiviral candidate for COVID-19, Paxlovid, in combination with the low dose of ritonavir to treat mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adult and pediatric patients at increased risk of hospitalizations or death. Paxlovid can be prescribed as an at-home treatment to help fight mild-to-moderate COVID-19 infection. It can help prevent hospitalization in patients with a mild-to-moderate form of the disease but at high risk of severe COVID-19 and thus lower some of the pressure facing the healthcare and hospital systems. However, Paxlovid’s sales are expected to have been negligible in the fourth quarter.
Alliance revenues from Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) for Eliquis are likely to have provided top-line support. Continued increased adoption in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation as well as oral anticoagulant market share gains might have benefited alliance revenues from Eliquis sales in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Bristol-Myers for Eliquis is $1.33 billion.
Sales of Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 vaccine have been hurt significantly by a drop in the adult indication in the United States due to the ongoing prioritization of primary and booster vaccination campaigns for COVID-19 in the third quarter. The change to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendation, implemented in June 2019, for the Prevnar 13 adult indication to shared clinical decision-making hurt sales. It remains to be seen if the sales trends improved in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 vaccine sales is $1.63 billion.
In addition, new brands such as Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and new oncology biosimilars (Trazimera, Zirabev and Ruxience) should bring in additional sales. Sterile injectables' global revenues are likely to have also increased in the fourth quarter.
Sales of some key drugs like Chantix and Sutent globally and Enbrel in international markets are likely to have declined in the fourth quarter, continuing the trend of the past few quarters. While Sutent sales are expected to have been hurt due to the loss of exclusivity in August, sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt due to biosimilar competition. Voluntary recalls across several markets (due to the presence of a nitrosamine above acceptable limits) and pause in global shipments are likely to have hurt sales of Chantix in the fourth quarter.
An unfavorable change in channel mix and lower new patient starts due to the label update (per an FDA order) to include a heart-risk warning on the label of Pfizer’s JAK inhibitor drug, Xeljanz/Xeljanz may have hurt the drug’s sales.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Enbrel and Xeljanz is $313 million and $614 million, respectively.
Another large drug stock worth considering is Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , which has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Lilly’s stock has risen 19.5% in the past year. Estimates for Lilly’s 2022 earnings have gone up from $9.79 to $9.87 over the past 60 days.
Lilly’s earnings performance has been rather weak with the company missing earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. Lilly has a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 3.92%, on average.
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How Will Pfizer's (PFE) Key Drugs Perform in Q4 Earnings?
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) comprises six business units — Oncology, Inflammation & Immunology, Rare Disease, Hospital, Vaccines and Internal Medicine.
Oncology sales are likely to have risen in the fourth quarter, driven by higher sales of Ibrance in international markets, Inlyta and alliance revenues from Astellas for Xtandi.
Ibrance sales are likely to have risen outside the United States, which might have made up for lower sales in the United States. Increased demand due to continued recovery in diagnosis rates and treatment initiations might have benefited sales in outside U.S. markets. However, an increase in the proportion of patients using Pfizer’s Patient Assistance Program (provides Ibrance free of charge to certain low-income patients) due to COVID-related economic hardships might have continued to hurt U.S sales of Ibrance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Ibrance (worldwide) is $1.38 billion.
Growth in the United States and developed Europe due to the combination use of Inlyta for the first-line treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma patients benefited the drug’s sales in the past couple of quarters, a trend likely to have continued in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Inlyta is $270 million.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 9.6% this year so far compared with a decrease of 3.3% for the industry.
In the non-oncology area, a key contributor to Pfizer’s sales in the fourth quarter is likely to have been it and partner BioNTech’s (BNTX - Free Report) COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Sales are expected to have been higher than third-quarter sales of $13.0 billion. In the quarter, the FDA extended the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the booster dose of Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine to allow its use in all adults as well as children 12 through 17 years of age. In addition, the FDA granted emergency approval to Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age, making it the first vaccine to be authorized in the United States for this age group.
Most importantly, in December 2021, the FDA granted EUA to Pfizer’s promising oral antiviral candidate for COVID-19, Paxlovid, in combination with the low dose of ritonavir to treat mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adult and pediatric patients at increased risk of hospitalizations or death. Paxlovid can be prescribed as an at-home treatment to help fight mild-to-moderate COVID-19 infection. It can help prevent hospitalization in patients with a mild-to-moderate form of the disease but at high risk of severe COVID-19 and thus lower some of the pressure facing the healthcare and hospital systems. However, Paxlovid’s sales are expected to have been negligible in the fourth quarter.
Alliance revenues from Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) for Eliquis are likely to have provided top-line support. Continued increased adoption in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation as well as oral anticoagulant market share gains might have benefited alliance revenues from Eliquis sales in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Bristol-Myers for Eliquis is $1.33 billion.
Sales of Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 vaccine have been hurt significantly by a drop in the adult indication in the United States due to the ongoing prioritization of primary and booster vaccination campaigns for COVID-19 in the third quarter. The change to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendation, implemented in June 2019, for the Prevnar 13 adult indication to shared clinical decision-making hurt sales. It remains to be seen if the sales trends improved in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 vaccine sales is $1.63 billion.
In addition, new brands such as Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and new oncology biosimilars (Trazimera, Zirabev and Ruxience) should bring in additional sales. Sterile injectables' global revenues are likely to have also increased in the fourth quarter.
Sales of some key drugs like Chantix and Sutent globally and Enbrel in international markets are likely to have declined in the fourth quarter, continuing the trend of the past few quarters. While Sutent sales are expected to have been hurt due to the loss of exclusivity in August, sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt due to biosimilar competition. Voluntary recalls across several markets (due to the presence of a nitrosamine above acceptable limits) and pause in global shipments are likely to have hurt sales of Chantix in the fourth quarter.
An unfavorable change in channel mix and lower new patient starts due to the label update (per an FDA order) to include a heart-risk warning on the label of Pfizer’s JAK inhibitor drug, Xeljanz/Xeljanz may have hurt the drug’s sales.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Enbrel and Xeljanz is $313 million and $614 million, respectively.
Zacks Rank and Stock to Consider
Pfizer currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Pfizer Inc. Price and Consensus
Pfizer Inc. price-consensus-chart | Pfizer Inc. Quote
Another large drug stock worth considering is Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , which has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Lilly’s stock has risen 19.5% in the past year. Estimates for Lilly’s 2022 earnings have gone up from $9.79 to $9.87 over the past 60 days.
Lilly’s earnings performance has been rather weak with the company missing earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. Lilly has a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 3.92%, on average.