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Big Lots' (BIG) Q4 Earnings in Focus: What's in the Offing?

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Big Lots, Inc. (BIG - Free Report) is likely to report both top- and bottom-line decreases when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Mar 3, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal fourth quarter is currently pegged at $1.90 per share, indicating a plunge of 26.6% from the year-ago quarter’s tally. The consensus mark has decreased 3.1% in the past 30 days.

The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1,732 million, indicating a dip of 0.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

This Columbus, OH-based player delivered an earnings surprise of 10%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Key Factors to Note

Big Lots is persistently facing margin challenges due to the supply-chain disruptions in relation to the pandemic. These coupled with freight headwinds and other inflationary pressures might have hurt BIG’s performance during the to-be-reported quarter.

On Jan 10, management cautioned against near-term headwinds due to the coronavirus omicron variant and its impact on consumer behavior. Since, early January 2022, BIG has been witnessing soft traffic and sales trends, induced by the spread of the omicron strain. This might have affected BIG’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 performance. For the fiscal fourth quarter, Big Lots had envisioned earnings per share of $1.80-$1.95, down from $2.59 earned during the final quarter of the last fiscal year.

Given the continuation of the existing trends with bad weather conditions, management had anticipated registering a two-year comps rise in flat-to-low-single-digit percentage for fiscal January. Encouragingly, Big Lots’ transformation initiative, including Operation North Star, appears encouraging. BIG has been focusing on enhancing its omni-channel capabilities, including e-commerce business, for a while. Its other strategic efforts, including store-growth endeavors, expansion of the Broyhill brand and pantry optimization are on track.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Big Lots this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Big Lots currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +1.05%.

Stocks With a Favorable Combination

Here are a few companies worth considering from the same sector as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season:

Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.19% and a Zacks Rank #3. CASY is anticipated to register a top-line increase when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY's revenues is pegged at $3,061 million, indicating a rise of 52.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey's General Stores’ quarterly earnings is pegged at $1.45 per share, suggesting an improvement of 39.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. CASY delivered an earnings beat of 20.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Dollar General (DG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.68% and a Zacks Rank of 3. DG is likely to register a bottom-line decrease when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $2.56 suggests a fall of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Dollar General’s top line is expected to rise from the year-earlier quarter’s reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $8,701 million, which indicates an improvement of 3.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average.

Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank #3. COST is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $2.67 suggests an increase of 24.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Costco’s top line is expected to increase from the prior-year quarter’s reading. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $51.1 billion, which suggests growth of 14% from the prior-year quarter’s actuals. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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